AI Model:

Cooper Flagg▲

DAL · PG

PPG

20.2

RPG

6.5

APG

4.5

L5 PPG

20.0

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-0.2

20.2

20.0

RPG+0.5

6.5

7.0

APG+2.5

4.5

7.0

SPG-0.7

1.1

0.4

BPG-0.1

0.9

0.8

UNDER 21.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

21.5

SAS

2026-02-07

2026-02-07 vs SAS: 14 pts

PHX

2026-02-10

2026-02-10 vs PHX: 27 pts

ORL

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs ORL: 18 pts

BOS

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs BOS: 16 pts

TOR

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs TOR: 17 pts

ATL

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs ATL: 14 pts

MEM

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs MEM: 13 pts

CLE

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs CLE: 25 pts

CLE

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs CLE: 27 pts

NOP

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs NOP: 21 pts

Over 21.5

Under 21.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 21.5DRAFTKINGS

58%

REB

OVER 6.5DRAFTKINGS

57%

AST

OVER 5.5DRAFTKINGS

60%

3PM

OVER 0.5DRAFTKINGS

56%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

61%

OVER 2.5

55%

PRA

UNDER 34.5DRAFTKINGS

59%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

27.3

19.7

RPG

6.0

7.0

APG

4.3

5.5

vs ATL (H2H)1 games

PPG

14.0

RPG

12.0

APG

5.0

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Herbert Jones	4	20	65%	+11.4%	medium
Jabari Smith Jr.	3	17	47%	-7.4%	medium
Tari Eason	3	14	46%	-14.1%	medium
Peyton Watson	4	12	75%

Flagg’s all-around production leans strong at home, but the scoring line is tight

Cooper Flagg is producing 20.2 PPG, 6.5 RPG, and 4.5 APG on the season, with a stronger home scoring split at 27.3 PPG compared to 19.7 away. His recent form is mixed but productive overall: over the last 5 he’s at 20.0 PPG and 7.0 APG, while the last 10 shows 19.2 PPG and 5.9 APG with elevated turnovers at 2.7. Dallas is giving him 33.7 MPG on the season, and the current home setting supports his best fantasy paths even though the last matchup vs Atlanta was only 14 points, 12 rebounds, and 5 assists. The market is pricing him around the low 20s in points and mid-30s in PRA, which aligns with his season baseline more than his peak outcomes.

Stat Trends

PPG

20.0(→ from 20.2)

RPG

7.0(↑ from 6.5)

APG

7.0(↑ from 4.5)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data is available because the provided key defenders list is not usable for a true one-on-one assignment read. Atlanta’s team defense shows a 116.56 defensive rating with a 100 pace, plus a 0.285 scoring suppression and -0.281 three suppression, so the environment is not a pure pace boost.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Cooper Flagg▼	Points	21.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	17	✓
Cooper Flagg▼	Rebounds	6.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	6	✗
Cooper Flagg▼	Assists	5.5	OVER	60%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	5	✗
Cooper Flagg▼	3PM	0.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	0	✗
Cooper Flagg▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	61%MEDIUM	—	40%	4	✓
Cooper Flagg▼	Turnovers	2.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	—	60%	6	✓
Cooper Flagg▼	PRA	34.5	UNDER	59%MEDIUM	2/2	80%	28	✓

ML Scout Analysis

R+A12OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (10/20)11/2055%▼

BLK0.5OVER69%gbt_blocksWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 4x13/2065%Confidence moved LOW to HIGH▼

PRA42.5UNDER19%gbt_praWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 2x4/2020%+22.6% edge▼

PTS27.5UNDER32%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (8/20)OVER 2x4/2020%+27.4% edge▼

AST5.5UNDER24%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (8/20)10/2050%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

STL1.5UNDER23%gbt_stealsWeak Leg (8/20)OVER 3x10/2050%▼

P+A29UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (8/20)OVER 2x7/2035%▼

REB6.5UNDER26%gbt_reboundsAvoid (7/20)8/2040%+10.3% edgeConfidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

3PM1.5UNDER4%gbt_three_pmAvoid (7/20)OVER 2x5/2025%+13.3% edgeConfidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

P+R30UNDER0%gbt_prAvoid (7/20)OVER 2x7/2035%▼

Featured Pick

Cooper Flagg

Assists OVER 5.5HIGH

This is the clearest blend of role and form: his season mark is 4.52 APG, but his last 5 jumps to 7.0 and his last 10 is 5.9. With Dallas continuing to play him 33.7 MPG on the season and no injury limitation, the over is supported by both recent usage and the current line.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Onyeka Okongwu	2	8	14	71%	100%
Jalen Johnson	2	4	4	33%	33%
Nickeil Alexander-Walker	2	3	2	50%	50%
Dyson Daniels	2	3	2	50%	50%
Zaccharie Risacher	2	2	7	75%	88%

pointsUNDER 21.558%MEDIUM

His season mean is 20.16 and last 10 is 19.2, both below 21.5. The home split is strong at 27.3 PPG, but the last game vs Atlanta was only 14 points and his recent scoring variance is high.

reboundsOVER 6.557%MEDIUM

He averages 6.5 RPG on the season and 7.0 RPG over the last 5, so 6.5 is right on his current range. Home rebounding is 6.65, which supports an over lean despite the close number.

assistsOVER 5.560%MEDIUM

His recent assist form is stronger than season baseline, with 7.0 APG over the last 5 and 5.9 over the last 10 versus 4.52 on the season. He has also cleared 5.5 in recent high-creation games, making this one of the cleaner overs.

threesOVER 0.556%MEDIUM

He averages 1.0 made threes per game on the season and 1.6 at home, which keeps a 0.5 line playable. The last 5 is lighter at 0.6 fg3m per game, so this is more of a volume-based lean than a form-based lock.

stocksOVER 1.561%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 2.02 and the last 20 is 2.0, both above 1.5. Even with some recent volatility, his steal-plus-block production has been consistently strong enough to justify the over.

turnoversOVER 2.555%MEDIUM

He is averaging 2.7 turnovers over the last 10 and 2.4 over the last 20, which sits above a 2.5 threshold. The higher usage and creation load are the main reasons to expect another turnover-heavy game.

praUNDER 34.559%MEDIUM

His season PRA is 31.2 based on 20.2 points, 6.5 rebounds, and 4.5 assists, while the last 10 profile is 31.6 using the provided rolling averages. The market line at 34.5 sits above both the season and recent base.

timelineUNDER 21.5 PTS