AI Model:

Daniel Gafford▲

DAL · C

PPG

9.0

RPG

6.8

APG

1.0

L5 PPG

15.8

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+6.8

9.0

15.8

RPG+4.0

6.8

10.8

APG+0.6

1.0

1.6

SPG-0.2

0.8

0.6

BPG-0.3

1.3

1.0

OVER 10.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

10.5

MIN

2026-02-20

2026-02-20 vs MIN: 8 pts

IND

2026-02-22

2026-02-22 vs IND: 8 pts

BKN

2026-02-24

2026-02-24 vs BKN: 9 pts

MEM

2026-02-27

2026-02-27 vs MEM: 14 pts

OKC

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs OKC: 8 pts

CHA

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs CHA: 10 pts

ORL

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs ORL: 12 pts

TOR

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs TOR: 21 pts

ATL

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs ATL: 14 pts

MEM

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs MEM: 22 pts

Over 10.5

Under 10.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

OVER 10.5FANDUEL

68%

REB

OVER 7.5FANDUEL

70%

AST

UNDER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

66%

BLK

UNDER 1.5BETMGM

64%

STL

UNDER 1.5STAKE

72%

P+R

OVER 18.5FANDUEL

67%

R+A

OVER 9.5DRAFTKINGS

69%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

9.4

11.2

RPG

7.0

7.8

APG

1.1

1.3

vs ATL (H2H)17 games

PPG

10.2

RPG

5.8

APG

1.0

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Rudy Gobert	3	13	50%	-15.5%	medium
Jaxson Hayes	3	12	80%	+14.5%	medium
Donovan Clingan	2	12	83%	+1.2%	low
Alperen Sengun	3	11	45%

Gafford’s rebounding and rim protection are in strong form despite a questionable tag

Daniel Gafford has trended up recently, averaging 15.8 PPG and 10.8 RPG over his last 5 games, well above his season marks of 9.0 PPG and 6.8 RPG. His minutes have also risen to 24.4 over the last 5, which helps support his current production and makes his prop range more playable. Against Atlanta this season he posted 14 points and 10 rebounds in 25 minutes, and his 17-game history vs this opponent sits at 10.18 PPG and 5.76 RPG. The main risk is the questionable illness status, but if active his recent usage suggests a solid ceiling relative to his listed lines.

Stat Trends

PPG

15.8(↑ from 9.0)

RPG

10.8(↑ from 6.8)

APG

1.6(↑ from 1.0)

Stocks

1.6(↓ from 2.0)

Key Matchup

He has a clear head-to-head sample against Atlanta, with 17 games of history and a season-to-season average of 10.18 PPG and 5.76 RPG against this opponent. The provided key defender data does not create a single dominant matchup note, and there is no specific defender matchup data to rely on beyond the listed players and their allowed production.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Daniel Gafford▼	Points	10.5	OVER	68%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	24	✓
Daniel Gafford▼	Rebounds	7.5	OVER	70%HIGH	2/2	40%	8	✓
Daniel Gafford▼	Assists	1.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	0	✓
Daniel Gafford▼	Blocks	1.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	1	✓
Daniel Gafford▼	Steals	1.5	UNDER	72%HIGH	—	80%	0	✓
Daniel Gafford▼	P+R	18.5	OVER	67%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	32	✓
Daniel Gafford▼	R+A	9.5	OVER	69%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	8	✗

ML Scout Analysis

P+A13UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 3x7/2035%▼

R+A8.5UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 3x8/2040%▼

P+R19UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 3x8/2040%▼

Featured Pick

Daniel Gafford

Rebounds OVER 7.5HIGH

This is the cleanest number relative to his recent form: 10.8 RPG over the last 5 and 8.1 over the last 10 versus a season average of 6.8. He also just posted 10 rebounds in 25 minutes against Atlanta, which lines up well with the current market.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Dyson Daniels	2	6	4	40%	40%
Jock Landale	2	3	0	0%	0%
Onyeka Okongwu	2	2	2	50%	50%
Jalen Johnson	2	2	6	40%	50%
Mouhamed Gueye	1	2	7	67%	67%

pointsOVER 10.568%MEDIUM

His season mean is 8.98, but his last 5 has jumped to 15.8 and he already scored 14 points vs Atlanta on 2026-03-10. The line is only 10.5, so recent form supports the over if he plays normal minutes.

reboundsOVER 7.570%HIGH

He is averaging 10.8 rebounds over his last 5 and 8.1 over his last 10, both above his 6.8 season average. He also grabbed 10 rebounds in his most recent game vs Atlanta.

assistsUNDER 1.566%MEDIUM

His season mean is 1.02 assists and his overall profile is still low-usage as a passer. The recent 1.6 average is better, but the 1.5 line is still a bit aggressive for his role.

blocksUNDER 1.564%MEDIUM

He averages 1.3 blocks per game on the season, which is strong, but 1.5 is above that baseline and his last 5 is exactly 1.0. Variance is meaningful here, so the under is slightly preferred.

stealsUNDER 1.572%HIGH

He averages 0.8 steals on the season and 0.6 over the last 5, both below the 1.5 line. That makes this a difficult over unless he lands multiple steals.

prOVER 18.567%MEDIUM

His last 5 production is 15.8 points plus 10.8 rebounds, which is well above this combined line. Even his season averages total 15.8, so recent form makes 18.5 achievable.

raOVER 9.569%MEDIUM

He is at 6.8 rebounds and 1.0 assists for the season, but his last 5 rises to 10.8 rebounds and 1.6 assists. The combo line is supported by the rebound surge more than the assist profile.

timelineOVER 10.5 PTS