AI Model:

Jalen Johnson▼

ATL · PF

PPG

23.0

RPG

10.4

APG

8.1

L5 PPG

26.0

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+3.0

23.0

26.0

RPG-0.2

10.4

10.2

APG+1.7

8.1

9.8

SPG-0.1

1.3

1.2

BPG-0.1

0.5

0.4

UNDER 23.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

23.5

MIA

2026-02-20

2026-02-20 vs MIA: 16 pts

BKN

2026-02-22

2026-02-22 vs BKN: 26 pts

WAS

2026-02-24

2026-02-24 vs WAS: 5 pts

POR

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs POR: 8 pts

MIL

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs MIL: 20 pts

PHI

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs PHI: 35 pts

DAL

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs DAL: 27 pts

BKN

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs BKN: 21 pts

MIL

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs MIL: 23 pts

ORL

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs ORL: 24 pts

Over 23.5

Under 23.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 23.5DRAFTKINGS

56%

REB

UNDER 10.5DRAFTKINGS

54%

AST

OVER 8.5DRAFTKINGS

58%

3PM

OVER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

52%

STL

UNDER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

60%

BLK

OVER 0.5DRAFTKINGS

51%

STL+BLK

UNDER 2.5

57%

OVER 3

55%

PRA

OVER 42.5DRAFTKINGS

61%

P+A

OVER 31.5DRAFTKINGS

59%

P+R

OVER 33.5DRAFTKINGS

60%

R+A

OVER 18.5DRAFTKINGS

64%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

21.2

26.3

RPG

10.8

11.3

APG

8.5

8.4

vs DAL (H2H)7 games

PPG

14.3

RPG

6.3

APG

3.4

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Dominick Barlow	4	36	33%	-15.9%	medium
Miles Bridges	3	29	40%	-9.2%	medium
OG Anunoby	3	24	40%	-15.9%	medium
Tobias Harris	3	22	46%

Jalen Johnson brings elite all-around production into a favorable volume spot

Jalen Johnson is averaging 23.0 points, 10.4 rebounds, and 8.1 assists on the season, with his last 5 jumping to 26.0 points, 10.2 rebounds, and 9.8 assists. His recent form supports another high-usage night, but the last 10 shows some cooling to 20.5 points and 9.5 rebounds, so the scoring floor is a little less stable than his playmaking. The matchup data is mixed: Dallas has a 118.26 defensive rating and his prior game vs this opponent was 27 points, 7 rebounds, and 8 assists in 38 minutes, but his broader 7-game history vs Dallas is much lower at 14.3 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 3.4 assists. The market is asking for strong numbers across the board, making his multi-category upside more attractive than a pure ceiling points bet.

Stat Trends

PPG

26.0(↑ from 23.0)

RPG

10.2(→ from 10.4)

APG

9.8(↑ from 8.1)

Key Matchup

Dallas has a 118.26 defensive rating and a pace of 100, while Johnson's 7-game history vs this opponent is much lower than his season line at 14.285714285714286 points, 6.285714285714286 rebounds, and 3.4285714285714284 assists. The provided key defenders list includes P.J. Washington, Naji Marshall, and Daniel Gafford, but there is no specific defender matchup data beyond those names and their minutes/points allowed.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Jalen Johnson▼	Points	23.5	UNDER	56%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	17	✓
Jalen Johnson▼	Rebounds	10.5	UNDER	54%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	11	✗
Jalen Johnson▼	Assists	8.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	9	✓
Jalen Johnson▼	3PM	1.5	OVER	52%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	2	✓
Jalen Johnson▼	Steals	1.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	2	✗
Jalen Johnson▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	51%MEDIUM	—	20%	0	✗
Jalen Johnson▼	STL+BLK	2.5	UNDER	57%MEDIUM	—	90%	2	✓
Jalen Johnson▼	Turnovers	3	OVER	55%MEDIUM	—	30%	4	✓
Jalen Johnson▼	PRA	42.5	OVER	61%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	37	✗
Jalen Johnson▼	P+A	31.5	OVER	59%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	26	✗
Jalen Johnson▼	P+R	33.5	OVER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	28	✗
Jalen Johnson▼	R+A	18.5	OVER	64%MEDIUM	2/2	30%	20	✓

ML Scout Analysis

P+R32UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 5x8/1942%▼

P+A30UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 4x8/1942%▼

R+A17.5UNDER0%gbt_raAvoid (7/20)UNDER 2x7/1937%▼

Featured Pick

Jalen Johnson

Assists OVER 8.5HIGH

This is the cleanest angle off the data: he averages 8.1 assists on the season, 9.8 in the last 5, and 10.25 in the b2b split. The market line of 8.5 is beatable without requiring a massive scoring night, which fits his recent multi-category role.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
P.J. Washington	2	12	12	36%	41%
Naji Marshall	2	5	5	50%	63%
Max Christie	2	3	0	0%	0%
Khris Middleton	2	3	4	100%	100%
Cooper Flagg	2	2	3	33%	33%

pointsUNDER 23.556%MEDIUM

His season mean is 23.0 and last 10 is 20.5, while the DraftKings line is 23.5. The recent surge is real, but the broader trend is down and the head-to-head average vs Dallas is only 14.3 points.

reboundsUNDER 10.554%MEDIUM

He averages 10.4 rebounds on the season and 9.5 over the last 10, so 10.5 is slightly above his most recent baseline. Dallas has also held him to 6.285714285714286 rebounds across 7 games vs this opponent.

assistsOVER 8.558%MEDIUM

Johnson is at 8.1 assists per game on the season and 9.8 over the last 5, with a 10.25 assists b2b mean in the data. The line is only 8.5 and his recent creation volume has been strong.

threesOVER 1.552%MEDIUM

He averages 1.61 made threes on the season and 1.5 over the last 5, so a 1.5 line is right at his normal output. His recent games include multiple 2+ three makes.

stealsUNDER 1.560%MEDIUM

His season steals average is 1.3, but his last 10 is 1.1 and the 1.5 line is above both. The last 5 at 1.2 still sits below this threshold.

blocksOVER 0.551%MEDIUM

He averages 0.5 blocks per game on the season, which matches the line, and he has a 0.4 block rate over the last 5. This is a low-variance category, but the line is manageable.

stocksUNDER 2.557%MEDIUM

His combined season average for steals plus blocks is 1.8, and his last 10 is about 1.4 on the provided data. A 2.5 projected line would be above his typical production.

turnoversOVER 355%MEDIUM

He has 3.0 turnovers per game over the last 5 and 2.8 over the last 10, so turnover volume is clearly elevated. With his high usage and playmaking load, this is a realistic over.

praOVER 42.561%MEDIUM

His season averages sum to 41.5 PRA, and his last 5 pace is even higher with 26.0 points, 10.2 rebounds, and 9.8 assists. The 42.5 line is close, but his all-around usage gives the over a slight edge.

paOVER 31.559%MEDIUM

Points plus assists is 31.1 on the season and 35.8 over the last 5. With a 31.5 line, his recent offensive role supports the over.

prOVER 33.560%MEDIUM

His season points plus rebounds is 33.4, and the last 5 has been stronger than that baseline. The line is effectively right on his average, but recent form nudges it over.

raOVER 18.564%MEDIUM

Rebounds plus assists is 18.5 on the season and 20.0 over the last 5. Since the line is exactly his season mark, the recent assist spike makes the over appealing.

timelineUNDER 23.5 PTS