AI Model:

Max Christie▲

DAL · SG

PPG

12.5

RPG

3.3

APG

2.1

L5 PPG

10.4

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-2.1

12.5

10.4

RPG-1.5

3.3

1.8

APG-0.9

2.1

1.2

SPG+0.6

0.6

1.2

BPG+0.1

0.3

0.4

UNDER 11.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

11.5

OKC

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs OKC: 14 pts

CHA

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs CHA: 11 pts

ORL

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs ORL: 6 pts

BOS

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs BOS: 12 pts

TOR

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs TOR: 2 pts

ATL

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs ATL: 6 pts

MEM

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs MEM: 13 pts

CLE

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs CLE: 12 pts

CLE

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs CLE: 9 pts

NOP

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs NOP: 12 pts

Over 11.5

Under 11.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 11.5DRAFTKINGS

68%

REB

UNDER 3.5DRAFTKINGS

64%

AST

OVER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

58%

3PM

OVER 1.5FANDUEL

63%

STL

OVER 0.5

57%

BLK

UNDER 0.5BETMGM

70%

PRA

UNDER 16.5DRAFTKINGS

67%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

12.8

10.9

RPG

2.8

3.2

APG

1.5

2.0

vs ATL (H2H)7 games

PPG

8.4

RPG

2.4

APG

1.3

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Trey Murphy III	3	17	50%	+1.2%	medium
Michael Porter Jr.	3	16	66%	+10.2%	medium
CJ McCollum	4	16	42%	-2.6%	medium
Stephen Curry	2	13	60%

Christie’s scoring floor is solid, but the recent dip keeps the ceiling in check

Max Christie is averaging 12.5 points, 3.3 rebounds, and 2.1 assists on the season across 29.4 minutes, but his last-5 scoring has dipped to 10.4 points and his last-10 to 9.7. He is still playing starter minutes, and the recent game logs show he can pop for useful three-point volume, but the distribution has been volatile with several low-assist and low-rebound outings. Against Atlanta, the matchup profile is mixed: the Hawks allow a 116.56 defensive rating environment and play at a 100 pace, while Christie’s head-to-head sample versus this opponent is only 8.43 points in 23.29 minutes. The market is hanging his points around 11.5-13.5, which is close to his season average but above his recent form.

Stat Trends

PPG

10.4(↓ from 12.5)

RPG

1.8(↓ from 3.3)

APG

1.2(↓ from 2.1)

Key Matchup

There is no specific defender matchup data beyond the listed key defenders, so the strongest input is the team environment: Atlanta has a 116.56 defensive rating and a 100 pace, with a scoring suppression of 0.285 and three-point suppression of -0.281. Christie has also averaged only 8.43 points in 7 games against Atlanta, which reinforces a modest scoring outlook.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Max Christie▼	Points	11.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	13	✗
Max Christie▼	Rebounds	3.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	2	✓
Max Christie▼	Assists	1.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	30%	1	✗
Max Christie▼	3PM	1.5	OVER	63%MEDIUM	1/2	80%	2	✓
Max Christie▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	—	60%	0	✗
Max Christie▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	70%HIGH	—	80%	0	✓
Max Christie▼	PRA	16.5	UNDER	67%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	16	✓

ML Scout Analysis

PTS10.5UNDER29%logisticWeak Leg (11/20)10/2050%Scorecard changed +3.0▼

PRA15.5UNDER20%logisticWeak Leg (11/20)9/2045%Confidence moved HIGH to LOW; Value edge changed +0.032; Odds moved materially▼

REB2.5UNDER11%logisticWeak Leg (9/20)13/2065%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Value edge shifted -0.189; Scorecard changed +4.0▼

R+A4.5UNDER0%logisticWeak Leg (9/20)8/2040%Scorecard changed +3.0▼

P+R12.5UNDER0%logisticWeak Leg (9/20)9/2045%Scorecard changed +3.0▼

P+A10.5OVER0%logisticWeak Leg (9/20)12/2060%Scorecard changed +3.0▼

3PM1.5OVER11%logisticAvoid (7/20)OVER 2x13/2065%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Value edge shifted +0.080▼

Featured Pick

Max Christie

Threes OVER 1.5HIGH

This is the cleanest numbers-based angle because Christie averages 2.35 threes per game on the season and 2.4 over the last-5, with starter-level minutes still intact at 29.4 per game. The line is below both his season and recent three-point output, making it the strongest value play among his available props.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
CJ McCollum	2	7	10	50%	50%
Nickeil Alexander-Walker	2	3	10	80%	100%
Corey Kispert	2	2	2	33%	33%
Dyson Daniels	2	2	2	100%	100%
Gabe Vincent	2	2	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 11.568%MEDIUM

His season mean is 12.5, but the last-5 is 10.4 and last-10 is 9.7, which is below this number. He also averages just 8.43 points in 7 games vs Atlanta, which supports a cautious under lean.

reboundsUNDER 3.564%MEDIUM

Christie’s season rebound average is 3.3 and his last-5 is only 1.8. With a recent mean of 3.1 and a matchup line above that, the under is slightly favored.

assistsOVER 1.558%MEDIUM

His season assists are 2.1 and his away mean is 2.27, so 1.5 is a reachable number if he maintains starter minutes. The recent last-5 dip to 1.2 keeps confidence moderate rather than strong.

threesOVER 1.563%MEDIUM

Christie averages 2.35 made threes per game on the season and 2.4 over the last-5, with 2.6 fg3m in the last-5 game logs. This is one of the cleaner volume-based overs on the board.

stealsOVER 0.557%MEDIUM

He averages 0.6 steals on the season and 1.2 over the last-5, so 0.5 is attainable. The recent steals trend is better than his baseline, but the variance is high.

blocksUNDER 0.570%HIGH

Christie’s season block average is only 0.3, below the 0.5 threshold, and his last-10 is 0.2. Even with a few recent 1-block games, the under is still the safer side.

praUNDER 16.567%MEDIUM

His season PRA is 18.0 based on 12.5 points, 3.3 rebounds, and 2.1 assists, but recent production has softened to 9.7/3.1/1.3 over the last-10. Given the recent scoring and assist drop, 16.5 is playable to the under.

timelineUNDER 11.5 PTS