AI Model:

Naji Marshall▲

DAL · SF

PPG

15.1

RPG

4.8

APG

3.1

L5 PPG

18.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+3.5

15.1

18.6

RPG+0.8

4.8

5.6

APG+1.7

3.1

4.8

SPG-0.2

1.0

0.8

BPG-0.1

0.1

0.0

OVER 16.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

16.5

SAC

2026-02-26

2026-02-26 vs SAC: 36 pts

MEM

2026-02-27

2026-02-27 vs MEM: 4 pts

ORL

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs ORL: 6 pts

BOS

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs BOS: 13 pts

TOR

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs TOR: 8 pts

ATL

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs ATL: 14 pts

MEM

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs MEM: 5 pts

CLE

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs CLE: 17 pts

CLE

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs CLE: 25 pts

NOP

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs NOP: 32 pts

Over 16.5

Under 16.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

OVER 16.5DRAFTKINGS

66%

REB

OVER 4.5DRAFTKINGS

60%

AST

OVER 3.5DRAFTKINGS

64%

3PM

OVER 0.5BETONLINEAG

58%

STL

UNDER 1.5BETMGM

71%

BLK

UNDER 0.5BETMGM

88%

OVER 2

57%

PRA

OVER 25.5FANDUEL

63%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

19.3

15.7

RPG

6.5

3.9

APG

3.0

3.9

vs ATL (H2H)10 games

PPG

8.0

RPG

4.3

APG

2.6

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
James Harden	3	18	83%	+15.9%	medium
Deni Avdija	3	16	43%	-7.9%	medium
Jamal Murray	4	14	89%	+27.8%	medium
Keyonte George	4	13	80%

Marshall’s scoring and playmaking surge makes him playable at home

Naji Marshall is trending up, with his last 5 games at 18.6 PPG, 5.6 RPG, and 4.8 APG after a 15.1/4.8/3.1 season line. He’s also been more productive at home, where he averages 19.3 PPG and 6.5 RPG in 6 games, and his minutes have stayed stable around 29-33. The matchup data is mixed: he has 10 games vs Atlanta but only 8.0 PPG and 2.6 APG in that sample, while the team context shows a 116.56 defensive rating and 100 pace. With his recent volume and the available sportsbook numbers, his points and combo props look playable, though the head-to-head history tempers the ceiling a bit.

Stat Trends

PPG

18.6(↑ from 15.1)

RPG

5.6(↑ from 4.8)

APG

4.8(↑ from 3.1)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data was provided, so the best read is team-level: Atlanta’s listed defense has a 116.56 defensive rating and a 100 pace. Marshall’s 10-game history vs this opponent is modest at 8.0 PPG and 2.6 APG, which is the main concern against his recent surge.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Naji Marshall▼	Points	16.5	OVER	66%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	4	✗
Naji Marshall▼	Rebounds	4.5	OVER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	3	✗
Naji Marshall▼	Assists	3.5	OVER	64%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	4	✓
Naji Marshall▼	3PM	0.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	—	60%	0	✗
Naji Marshall▼	Steals	1.5	UNDER	71%HIGH	—	90%	1	✓
Naji Marshall▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	88%HIGH	—	90%	0	✓
Naji Marshall▼	Turnovers	2	OVER	57%MEDIUM	—	50%	1	✗
Naji Marshall▼	PRA	25.5	OVER	63%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	11	✗

ML Scout Analysis

PRA22.5OVER22%gbt_praWeak Leg (11/20)11/2055%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM; Value edge shifted +0.089▼

PTS14.5OVER18%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 2x11/2055%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Value edge changed +0.045▼

REB3.5OVER5%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 2x12/2060%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Value edge changed +0.072▼

P+A20.5UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 2x8/2040%▼

AST3.5UNDER9%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (8/20)10/2050%▼

R+A8.5UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (8/20)9/2045%▼

P+R20.5UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 2x9/2045%▼

Featured Pick

Naji Marshall

Points OVER 16.5MEDIUM

This is the cleanest blend of form and price: his last 5 are 18.6 PPG, his home average is 19.3 PPG, and multiple books have the line at 16.5. The head-to-head sample vs Atlanta is weak, but the current scoring trend is strong enough to back the over.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Jalen Johnson	2	6	9	50%	58%
Nickeil Alexander-Walker	2	5	2	50%	50%
Onyeka Okongwu	2	3	2	50%	50%
CJ McCollum	2	3	6	75%	75%
Dyson Daniels	2	2	4	100%	100%

pointsOVER 16.566%MEDIUM

His last 5 games are at 18.6 PPG, above the 16.5 line, and he’s at 19.3 PPG in 6 home games. The recent trend is clearly stronger than his 15.1 season average.

reboundsOVER 4.560%MEDIUM

He averages 4.8 RPG on the season and 5.6 RPG over the last 5, with 6.5 RPG at home. That makes 4.5 a reachable number even with some variance.

assistsOVER 3.564%MEDIUM

Marshall’s recent assist form is 4.8 APG over the last 5 and 4.1 over the last 10, both above 3.5. His season mean is 3.11, so the current role supports the over.

threesOVER 0.558%MEDIUM

He averages 0.85 threes per game on the season and 0.9 over the last 5, with 1.3 at home. Any made three clears this line, and the volume is enough to support it.

stealsUNDER 1.571%HIGH

He averages exactly 1.0 steals per game on the season and 0.8 over the last 5, both below a 1.5 line. His defensive counting stats have not shown enough ceiling lately to justify the over.

blocksUNDER 0.588%HIGH

He averages only 0.1 blocks per game on the season and 0.0 over the last 5. That makes 0.5 a strong under profile.

turnoversOVER 257%MEDIUM

His last 5 include 2.8 turnovers per game and his last 10 are at 2.4, both above a 2.0 line. The tradeoff for his increased usage is a higher turnover rate.

praOVER 25.563%MEDIUM

He’s averaging 15.1 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 3.1 assists on the season, and his last 5 form has risen to 18.6/5.6/4.8. That recent combination gives him a viable path over 25.5 PRA.

timelineOVER 16.5 PTS