AI Model:

De'Anthony Melton▲

GSW · SG

PPG

13.1

RPG

3.1

APG

2.4

L5 PPG

18.2

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+5.1

13.1

18.2

RPG+1.7

3.1

4.8

APG+0.2

2.4

2.6

SPG+0.2

1.6

1.8

BPG+0.2

0.4

0.6

UNDER 15.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

15.5

SAS

2026-02-11

2026-02-11 vs SAS: 17 pts

BOS

2026-02-19

2026-02-19 vs BOS: 18 pts

DEN

2026-02-22

2026-02-22 vs DEN: 20 pts

NOP

2026-02-24

2026-02-24 vs NOP: 28 pts

LAL

2026-02-28

2026-02-28 vs LAL: 10 pts

LAC

2026-03-02

2026-03-02 vs LAC: 7 pts

HOU

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs HOU: 23 pts

UTA

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs UTA: 22 pts

MIN

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs MIN: 12 pts

WAS

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs WAS: 27 pts

Over 15.5

Under 15.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 15.5FANDUEL

58%

REB

OVER 3.5FANDUEL

54%

AST

OVER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

55%

3PM

OVER 1.5FANDUEL

57%

STL

UNDER 1.5FANDUEL

52%

BLK

OVER 0.5BETMGM

50%

P+A

OVER 17.5FANDUEL

56%

P+R

OVER 18.5FANDUEL

53%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

13.1

18.2

RPG

3.5

3.6

APG

3.3

2.4

vs BOS (H2H)12 games

PPG

9.2

RPG

3.1

APG

1.8

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Keyonte George	3	8	33%	-6.6%	medium
Jamal Murray	2	7	71%	+17.2%	low
Brandon Williams	2	7	43%	+3.0%	low
Collin Gillespie	3	6	0%

Melton’s usage is trending up, but Boston keeps the scoring ceiling in check

De'Anthony Melton has been in strong form lately, with his last 5 games jumping to 18.2 PPG, 4.8 RPG, and 2.4 stocks while playing 26.2 MPG. His season baseline is much lower at 13.1 PPG, 3.1 RPG, and 2.4 APG, so the recent surge is real, but the matchup is less appealing given Boston’s 107.07 defensive rating, 100 pace, and negative scoring suppression. His head-to-head against this opponent is also muted at 9.17 PPG, 3.08 RPG, and 1.83 APG across 12 games. With current sportsbook lines sitting above his season averages on several categories, the market is pricing in some of that recent hot stretch.

Stat Trends

PPG

18.2(↑ from 13.1)

RPG

4.8(↑ from 3.1)

APG

2.6(→ from 2.4)

Stocks

2.4(↑ from 2.0)

Key Matchup

Boston’s opponent profile is not a pace boost, with a 100 pace and 107.07 defensive rating, and the scoring suppression number leans negative for offense. There is no specific defender matchup data beyond the listed key defenders, so the main concern is the team-level environment rather than a single assigned stopper.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
De'Anthony Melton▼	Points	15.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	30%	5	✓
De'Anthony Melton▼	Rebounds	3.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	1	✗
De'Anthony Melton▼	Assists	2.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	2	✗
De'Anthony Melton▼	3PM	1.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	1/2	80%	1	✗
De'Anthony Melton▼	Steals	1.5	UNDER	52%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	1	✓
De'Anthony Melton▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	50%MEDIUM	—	30%	1	✓
De'Anthony Melton▼	P+A	17.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	7	✗
De'Anthony Melton▼	P+R	18.5	OVER	53%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	6	✗

ML Scout Analysis

AST2.5OVER41%gbt_assistsDecent Leg (13/20)OVER 6x11/2055%Confidence moved MEDIUM to HIGH▼

PRA19.5UNDER28%gbt_praDecent Leg (13/20)UNDER 3x9/2045%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

PTS12.5UNDER5%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 3x10/2050%▼

REB3.5UNDER2%gbt_reboundsDecent Leg (12/20)10/2050%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Value edge changed +0.068▼

P+R17OVER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 3x10/2050%▼

P+A16UNDER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 3x9/2045%▼

3PM1.5OVER11%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (11/20)11/2055%▼

R+A6.5UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (11/20)8/2040%▼

Featured Pick

De'Anthony Melton

Points UNDER 15.5MEDIUM

This number sits above his 13.1 season scoring average and far above his 9.17 PPG in 12 games against this opponent. The last 5-game surge to 18.2 PPG is the main reason to hesitate, but Boston’s slower, suppressive setup makes the under the best blend of line value and matchup context.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Sam Hauser	2	5	3	50%	75%
Jaylen Brown	2	4	10	100%	113%
Derrick White	2	3	4	50%	50%
Jayson Tatum	1	2	2	50%	50%
Baylor Scheierman	2	2	2	25%	25%

pointsUNDER 15.558%MEDIUM

Melton’s season mean is 13.11 PPG and his vs-opponent mark is only 9.17 PPG across 12 games. The recent 18.2 PPG is hot, but Boston’s scoring suppression and his lower historical output here make the under the cleaner side.

reboundsOVER 3.554%MEDIUM

He has averaged 4.8 rebounds over his last 5 and 3.9 over his last 10, both above his 3.08 season mean. The 3.5 line is reachable if his recent minutes stay near 25.8 MPG.

assistsOVER 2.555%MEDIUM

His recent assist average is 3.0 over the last 10 games, above the 2.42 season mean and 2.4 on the year. With a starting role and 25.8 MPG in the last 10, 3 assists is a solid expectation.

threesOVER 1.557%MEDIUM

Melton is averaging 1.53 made threes per game on the season and 2.2 over the last 10, with 2.2 fg3m per game in that same span. Even with Boston’s slight three suppression, the volume supports 2+ made threes.

stealsUNDER 1.552%MEDIUM

His season steal rate is 1.6, but the line is still high and his home steal average is only 1.1. The last 5 at 1.8 is encouraging, yet steals remain volatile enough that the under is playable at this number.

blocksOVER 0.550%MEDIUM

He averages 0.4 blocks on the season and 0.6 over the last 5, so this is a thin edge rather than a strong one. The recent uptick gives the over some appeal, but the confidence stays modest.

paOVER 17.556%MEDIUM

Melton’s recent scoring plus playmaking has been better than his season baseline, with 18.4 PPG and 3.0 APG over the last 10. That combination clears 17.5 more often if the recent usage holds.

prOVER 18.553%MEDIUM

He is at 13.11 points and 3.08 rebounds per game on the season, but his recent form has pushed both categories up. The 18.5 line is close enough to his last-10 production to justify a lean over.

timelineUNDER 15.5 PTS

Defensive Matchup Profile

Melton’s usage is trending up, but Boston keeps the scoring ceiling in check

Stat Trends

Key Matchup

Prop Analysis

ML Scout Analysis

Featured Pick

UNDER 15.5 PTS