AI Model:

Jaylen Brown▲

BOS · SG

PPG

28.4

RPG

7.1

APG

5.1

L5 PPG

24.4

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-4.0

28.4

24.4

RPG-1.5

7.1

5.6

APG+1.1

5.1

6.2

SPG0.0

1.0

BPG0.0

0.4

OVER 24.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

24.5

DEN

2026-02-25

2026-02-25 vs DEN: 23 pts

BKN

2026-02-27

2026-02-27 vs BKN: 28 pts

PHI

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs PHI: 27 pts

CHA

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs CHA: 20 pts

DAL

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs DAL: 24 pts

CLE

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs CLE: 23 pts

SAS

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs SAS: 8 pts

OKC

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs OKC: 34 pts

WAS

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs WAS: 16 pts

PHX

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs PHX: 41 pts

Over 24.5

Under 24.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

OVER 24.5FANDUEL

68%

REB

OVER 6.5FANDUEL

60%

AST

OVER 4.5DRAFTKINGS

63%

3PM

OVER 1.5FANDUEL

57%

STL

UNDER 1.5FANDUEL

71%

BLK

OVER 0.5BETMGM

52%

P+R

OVER 31.5DRAFTKINGS

64%

P+A

OVER 29.5FANDUEL

67%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

25.5

26.1

RPG

7.1

8.8

APG

4.9

6.6

vs GSW (H2H)9 games

PPG

23.1

RPG

8.2

APG

4.4

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Noah Clowney	3	17	35%	-17.6%	medium
Kelly Oubre Jr.	4	16	25%	-22.6%	medium
Tobias Harris	4	14	42%	-14.3%	medium
Franz Wagner	3	13	67%

Brown’s scoring stays strong, but the market is split on his ceiling

Jaylen Brown is averaging 28.4 PPG, 7.1 RPG, and 5.1 APG on the season, but his last 5 games have dipped to 24.4 PPG with 3.8 turnovers. He has still flashed massive upside, including a 41-point, 7-rebound, 6-assist line in his most recent game, and his last 20 show a steadier 25.8 PPG, 7.8 RPG, and 5.6 APG. Against Golden State, his history is solid but not explosive, as he averages 23.1 PPG and 8.2 RPG in 9 games versus this opponent. The matchup data suggests a manageable scoring environment, with Boston at home and Golden State showing a 114.27 defensive rating plus -0.55 three suppression.

Stat Trends

PPG

24.4(↓ from 28.4)

RPG

5.6(↓ from 7.1)

APG

6.2(↑ from 5.1)

Key Matchup

There is no specific defender matchup data, so the read is driven by team context and opponent profile. Golden State has a 114.27 defensive rating with -0.55 three suppression, while Brown’s season three rate is 1.95 and his home scoring sits at 27.69 PPG.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Jaylen Brown▼	Points	24.5	OVER	68%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	32	✓
Jaylen Brown▼	Rebounds	6.5	OVER	60%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	6	✗
Jaylen Brown▼	Assists	4.5	OVER	63%MEDIUM	1/2	80%	5	✓
Jaylen Brown▼	3PM	1.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	1	✗
Jaylen Brown▼	Steals	1.5	UNDER	71%HIGH	2/2	70%	2	✗
Jaylen Brown▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	52%MEDIUM	—	40%	0	✗
Jaylen Brown▼	P+R	31.5	OVER	64%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	38	✓
Jaylen Brown▼	P+A	29.5	OVER	67%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	37	✓

ML Scout Analysis

PRA37.5OVER37%gbt_praDecent Leg (15/20)UNDER 2x15/2075%+23.5% edgePrediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM; Value edge shifted +0.531▼

AST5.5OVER8%gbt_assistsDecent Leg (14/20)UNDER 2x14/2070%+24.9% edgePrediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Value edge shifted +0.556; Scorecard changed +5.0▼

P+R34.5OVER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 2x12/2060%▼

P+A34OVER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 2x11/2055%▼

PTS25.5UNDER7%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 9x13/2065%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW; Value edge shifted -0.256▼

REB5.5UNDER3%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (10/20)16/2080%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Value edge shifted -0.530; Scorecard changed -3.0▼

STL0.5OVER8%gbt_stealsWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 2x12/2060%▼

3PM1.5UNDER8%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (10/20)10/2050%▼

R+A14UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 3x8/2040%▼

Featured Pick

Jaylen Brown

Points OVER 24.5HIGH

This is the cleanest number relative to Brown’s season profile, since he averages 28.4 PPG and 25.8 PPG over the last 20. The recent dip to 24.4 over the last 5 is the main concern, but the line is still below both his season and medium-term production.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
De'Anthony Melton	2	6	2	0%	0%
Al Horford	1	4	0	0%	0%
Gui Santos	2	4	5	25%	25%
Will Richard	2	3	2	0%	0%
Brandin Podziemski	2	2	3	33%	33%

pointsOVER 24.568%MEDIUM

He is averaging 28.4 points per game on the season and 25.8 over the last 20, both above 24.5. Even with the recent 24.4 PPG last-5 dip, the line sits well below his season output.

reboundsOVER 6.560%MEDIUM

Brown is at 7.1 RPG for the season and 7.2 over his last 10, so 6.5 is a reachable number. His recent game logs also show multiple 7+ rebound outings.

assistsOVER 4.563%MEDIUM

He averages 5.1 APG on the season and 6.5 over the last 10, which supports the over at 4.5. His recent playmaking trend is clearly above his baseline.

threesOVER 1.557%MEDIUM

Brown averages 1.95 threes per game on the season and 1.4 over the last 5, so this is closer than his points/rebounds/assists props. Still, the season average is above 1.5 and his home mark is 1.78.

stealsUNDER 1.571%HIGH

He averages exactly 1.0 steal per game on the season, which is below 1.5. The line is aggressive relative to his typical production.

blocksOVER 0.552%MEDIUM

Brown averages 0.4 blocks per game on the season, so this is a low-probability over, but the 0.5 line is common for a player with occasional block upside. His last 10 show 0.6 BPG.

prOVER 31.564%MEDIUM

His season averages of 28.4 points and 7.1 rebounds combine to 35.5 PR, above the 31.5 line. The last 20 also support this with 25.8 PPG and 7.8 RPG.

paOVER 29.567%MEDIUM

Brown averages 28.4 points and 5.1 assists for a 33.5 P+A season mark, which clears 29.5. His last 10 assists surge to 6.5 APG adds support.

timelineOVER 24.5 PTS