Last 10 games
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Wiggins | 1 | 6 | 75% | +8.8% | low |
| Jaden McDaniels | 1 | 5 | 50% | +8.8% | low |
| Chet Holmgren | 1 | 5 | 50% | -7.9% | low |
| Taylor Hendricks | 1 | 5 | 67% |
Jayson Tatum is averaging 20.0 PPG, 8.2 RPG, and 4.4 APG on the season, with his last 5 matching those exact averages and his trend labeled up. His head-to-head numbers vs Golden State are stronger than his season baseline at 27.2 PPG, 8.9 RPG, and 4.5 APG across 10 games, and he’s available with no injury concern. The matchup data shows a Warriors defense with a 114.27 defensive rating and -0.55 three suppression, but there is no specific defender matchup data to lean on directly. With his recent volume stable and his 3-point rate at 2.6 makes per game, his strongest angles are the combo props rather than pure scoring ceilings.
Golden State is listed with a 114.27 defensive rating and -0.55 three suppression, which gives Tatum a mixed scoring environment rather than a purely soft one. There is no specific defender matchup data, so the evaluation leans more on opponent profile and his 10-game history of 27.2 PPG against this team.
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jayson Tatum▼ | Points | 21.5 | UNDER | 61%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 60% | 24 | ✗ |
Jayson Tatum▼ | Rebounds | 7.5 | OVER | 63%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 50% | 10 | ✓ |
Jayson Tatum▼ | Assists | 4.5 | UNDER | 59%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 40% | 2 | ✓ |
Jayson Tatum▼ | 3PM | 2.5 | OVER | 64%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 40% | 5 | ✓ |
Jayson Tatum▼ | Steals | 1.5 | UNDER | 67%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 80% | 1 | ✓ |
Jayson Tatum▼ | Blocks | 0.5 | UNDER | 74%HIGH | — | 70% | 0 | ✓ |
Jayson Tatum▼ | STL+BLK | 1.5 | UNDER | 58%MEDIUM | — | 60% | 1 | ✓ |
Jayson Tatum▼ | Turnovers | 2 | UNDER | 56%MEDIUM | — | 90% | 4 | ✗ |
Jayson Tatum▼ | P+A | 25.5 | OVER | 66%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 50% | 26 | ✓ |
Jayson Tatum▼ | PRA | 33.5 | OVER | 68%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 50% | 36 | ✓ |
Jayson Tatum▼ | Double-Double | 0.5 | OVER | 60%MEDIUM | — | — | — | — |
This is his cleanest edge because he’s averaging exactly 8.2 rebounds on the season and 8.2 over the last 5, both above the posted 7.5 line. His matchup history vs Golden State is also strong at 8.9 RPG across 10 games, giving the over a solid foundation.
| low |
| Will Riley | 1 | 4 | 0% | -41.2% | low |
| Defender | Games | Min | PTS | FG% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kristaps Porziņģis | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Quinten Post | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Draymond Green | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Gui Santos | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Gary Payton II | 1 | 1 | 2 | 50% | 50% |
He’s at exactly 20.0 PPG on the season and 20.0 over the last 5, which sits below the 21.5 line. Even with strong historical production vs this opponent, the current scoring baseline is not showing a clear push above the number.
Tatum is averaging 8.2 RPG on the season and over the last 5, clearing 7.5. He has also posted 7 or more rebounds in multiple recent games, including 14 vs WAS and 12 vs DAL in the recent log.
His season average is 4.4 APG, just under the 4.5 line, and his last 5 are also 4.4. The recent game log has some strong assist outings, but the overall profile is still slightly below the posted number.
He averages 2.6 made threes per game on the season and 2.6 over the last 5, both above 2.5. His recent volume includes 2, 2, 4, 2, and 3 made threes in the last five games.
At 1.2 SPG on the season and in the last 5, he is below the 1.5 line. The recent sample shows mixed steal results, but the average is still not enough to justify the over.
He averages 0.0 BPG on the season and 0.0 over the last 5. That makes 0.5 a tough threshold to clear without a major outlier.
His season stocks average is 1.2 and his last 5 is also 1.2, both below 1.5. The defensive event rate is solid but not enough to assume an over on this combined stat.
He’s at 1.4 turnovers per game over the last 5, and 1.7 over the last 10, both below 2.0. The last 20 at 2.7 is higher, but the more current windows are milder.
His season points plus assists baseline is 24.4, but the recent and opponent context improve the case, especially with 27.2 PPG and 4.5 APG vs Golden State. The 25.5 line is reachable if he lands near his normal scoring range.
He averages 20.0 points, 8.2 rebounds, and 4.4 assists for 32.6 PRA on the season, which is close to the 33.5 number. His stronger matchup history vs Golden State adds support for a modest over.
He has clear double-double potential with 8.2 rebounds and 4.4 assists alongside 20.0 points, and recent logs include 14 rebounds and 7 assists in the same game. The line is favorable if he reaches either scoring-rebounding or scoring-assist combination.