AI Model:

Jayson Tatum▲

BOS · PF

PPG

20.0

RPG

8.2

APG

4.4

L5 PPG

20.0

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG0.0

20.0

RPG0.0

8.2

APG0.0

4.4

SPG0.0

1.2

BPG0.0

0.0

UNDER 21.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

21.5

MEM

2025-03-31

2025-03-31 vs MEM: 25 pts

MIA

2025-04-02

2025-04-02 vs MIA: 16 pts

PHX

2025-04-04

2025-04-04 vs PHX: 23 pts

NYK

2025-04-08

2025-04-08 vs NYK: 32 pts

CHA

2025-04-11

2025-04-11 vs CHA: 16 pts

DAL

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs DAL: 15 pts

CLE

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs CLE: 20 pts

SAS

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs SAS: 24 pts

WAS

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs WAS: 20 pts

PHX

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs PHX: 21 pts

Over 21.5

Under 21.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 21.5FANDUEL

61%

REB

OVER 7.5FANDUEL

63%

AST

UNDER 4.5FANDUEL

59%

3PM

OVER 2.5FANDUEL

64%

STL

UNDER 1.5FANDUEL

67%

BLK

UNDER 0.5BETMGM

74%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

58%

UNDER 2

56%

P+A

OVER 25.5FANDUEL

66%

PRA

OVER 33.5FANDUEL

68%

OVER 0.5

60%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

23.5

25.9

RPG

9.0

7.3

APG

6.6

5.5

vs GSW (H2H)10 games

PPG

27.2

RPG

8.9

APG

4.5

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Andrew Wiggins	1	6	75%	+8.8%	low
Jaden McDaniels	1	5	50%	+8.8%	low
Chet Holmgren	1	5	50%	-7.9%	low
Taylor Hendricks	1	5	67%

Tatum’s multi-category floor stays strong, but scoring line looks beatable

Jayson Tatum is averaging 20.0 PPG, 8.2 RPG, and 4.4 APG on the season, with his last 5 matching those exact averages and his trend labeled up. His head-to-head numbers vs Golden State are stronger than his season baseline at 27.2 PPG, 8.9 RPG, and 4.5 APG across 10 games, and he’s available with no injury concern. The matchup data shows a Warriors defense with a 114.27 defensive rating and -0.55 three suppression, but there is no specific defender matchup data to lean on directly. With his recent volume stable and his 3-point rate at 2.6 makes per game, his strongest angles are the combo props rather than pure scoring ceilings.

Stat Trends

PPG

20.0(→ from 20.0)

RPG

8.2(→ from 8.2)

APG

4.4(→ from 4.4)

3PM

2.6(→ from 2.6)

Key Matchup

Golden State is listed with a 114.27 defensive rating and -0.55 three suppression, which gives Tatum a mixed scoring environment rather than a purely soft one. There is no specific defender matchup data, so the evaluation leans more on opponent profile and his 10-game history of 27.2 PPG against this team.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Jayson Tatum▼	Points	21.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	24	✗
Jayson Tatum▼	Rebounds	7.5	OVER	63%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	10	✓
Jayson Tatum▼	Assists	4.5	UNDER	59%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	2	✓
Jayson Tatum▼	3PM	2.5	OVER	64%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	5	✓
Jayson Tatum▼	Steals	1.5	UNDER	67%MEDIUM	2/2	80%	1	✓
Jayson Tatum▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	74%HIGH	—	70%	0	✓
Jayson Tatum▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	—	60%	1	✓
Jayson Tatum▼	Turnovers	2	UNDER	56%MEDIUM	—	90%	4	✗
Jayson Tatum▼	P+A	25.5	OVER	66%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	26	✓
Jayson Tatum▼	PRA	33.5	OVER	68%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	36	✓
Jayson Tatum▼	Double-Double	0.5	OVER	60%MEDIUM	—	—	—	—

ML Scout Analysis

PRA36.5OVER19%gbt_praDecent Leg (13/20)OVER 6x7/1450%▼

PTS21.5OVER6%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (12/20)OVER 5x7/1450%▼

AST4.5OVER51%gbt_assistsDecent Leg (12/20)OVER 6x8/1457%Confidence moved MEDIUM to HIGH▼

P+R31.5OVER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (12/20)OVER 5x7/1450%▼

STL0.5OVER35%gbt_stealsWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 3x10/1471%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

R+A15.5OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 3x7/1450%▼

REB8.5UNDER16%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 3x10/1471%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Value edge shifted -0.420; Scorecard changed -4.0▼

3PM3.5UNDER36%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (9/20)5/1436%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

P+A26.5UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 5x6/1443%▼

Featured Pick

Jayson Tatum

Rebounds OVER 7.5HIGH

This is his cleanest edge because he’s averaging exactly 8.2 rebounds on the season and 8.2 over the last 5, both above the posted 7.5 line. His matchup history vs Golden State is also strong at 8.9 RPG across 10 games, giving the over a solid foundation.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Kristaps Porziņģis	1	3	0	0%	0%
Quinten Post	1	3	0	0%	0%
Draymond Green	1	1	0	0%	0%
Gui Santos	1	1	0	0%	0%
Gary Payton II	1	1	2	50%	50%

pointsUNDER 21.561%MEDIUM

He’s at exactly 20.0 PPG on the season and 20.0 over the last 5, which sits below the 21.5 line. Even with strong historical production vs this opponent, the current scoring baseline is not showing a clear push above the number.

reboundsOVER 7.563%MEDIUM

Tatum is averaging 8.2 RPG on the season and over the last 5, clearing 7.5. He has also posted 7 or more rebounds in multiple recent games, including 14 vs WAS and 12 vs DAL in the recent log.

assistsUNDER 4.559%MEDIUM

His season average is 4.4 APG, just under the 4.5 line, and his last 5 are also 4.4. The recent game log has some strong assist outings, but the overall profile is still slightly below the posted number.

threesOVER 2.564%MEDIUM

He averages 2.6 made threes per game on the season and 2.6 over the last 5, both above 2.5. His recent volume includes 2, 2, 4, 2, and 3 made threes in the last five games.

stealsUNDER 1.567%MEDIUM

At 1.2 SPG on the season and in the last 5, he is below the 1.5 line. The recent sample shows mixed steal results, but the average is still not enough to justify the over.

blocksUNDER 0.574%HIGH

He averages 0.0 BPG on the season and 0.0 over the last 5. That makes 0.5 a tough threshold to clear without a major outlier.

stocksUNDER 1.558%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.2 and his last 5 is also 1.2, both below 1.5. The defensive event rate is solid but not enough to assume an over on this combined stat.

turnoversUNDER 256%MEDIUM

He’s at 1.4 turnovers per game over the last 5, and 1.7 over the last 10, both below 2.0. The last 20 at 2.7 is higher, but the more current windows are milder.

paOVER 25.566%MEDIUM

His season points plus assists baseline is 24.4, but the recent and opponent context improve the case, especially with 27.2 PPG and 4.5 APG vs Golden State. The 25.5 line is reachable if he lands near his normal scoring range.

praOVER 33.568%MEDIUM

He averages 20.0 points, 8.2 rebounds, and 4.4 assists for 32.6 PRA on the season, which is close to the 33.5 number. His stronger matchup history vs Golden State adds support for a modest over.

double_doubleOVER 0.560%MEDIUM

He has clear double-double potential with 8.2 rebounds and 4.4 assists alongside 20.0 points, and recent logs include 14 rebounds and 7 assists in the same game. The line is favorable if he reaches either scoring-rebounding or scoring-assist combination.

timelineUNDER 21.5 PTS

Defensive Matchup Profile

Tatum’s multi-category floor stays strong, but scoring line looks beatable

Stat Trends

Key Matchup

Prop Analysis

ML Scout Analysis

Featured Pick

UNDER 21.5 PTS