AI Model:

Will Richard▼

GSW · SF

PPG

6.8

RPG

2.6

APG

1.4

L5 PPG

3.4

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-3.4

6.8

3.4

RPG+0.4

2.6

3.0

APG-0.6

1.4

0.8

SPG+0.4

1.2

1.6

BPG+0.1

0.1

0.2

UNDER 7.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

7.5

MEM

2026-02-09

2026-02-09 vs MEM: 3 pts

BOS

2026-02-19

2026-02-19 vs BOS: 17 pts

DEN

2026-02-22

2026-02-22 vs DEN: 11 pts

NOP

2026-02-24

2026-02-24 vs NOP: 0 pts

MEM

2026-02-25

2026-02-25 vs MEM: 21 pts

LAL

2026-02-28

2026-02-28 vs LAL: 4 pts

CHI

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs CHI: 8 pts

MIN

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs MIN: 0 pts

NYK

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs NYK: 5 pts

WAS

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs WAS: 0 pts

Over 7.5

Under 7.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 7.5DRAFTKINGS

66%

REB

UNDER 3.5DRAFTKINGS

60%

AST

UNDER 1.5STAKE

58%

3PM

UNDER 1.5WILLIAMHILL_US

64%

STL

OVER 0.5STAKE

61%

BLK

UNDER 0.5BETMGM

86%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

59%

PRA

UNDER 11.5DRAFTKINGS

63%

P+A

UNDER 8.5BETMGM

60%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

5.6

6.7

RPG

3.1

2.7

APG

1.9

2.1

vs BOS (H2H)1 games

PPG

17.0

RPG

5.0

APG

2.0

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Stephon Castle	3	8	33%	-14.2%	medium
Anthony Edwards	2	7	79%	+19.2%	low
Josh Giddey	2	6	64%	+9.6%	low
Payton Pritchard	2	6	50%

Richard’s minutes are up, but the scoring floor stays volatile

Will Richard is coming off a down stretch, with his last 5 games at 3.4 PPG, 3.0 RPG, and 0.8 APG despite 25.4 MPG. His season numbers are steadier at 6.8 PPG, 2.6 RPG, and 1.4 APG, and his last 10/20 samples suggest a usable defensive-playmaking profile with 1.5-1.7 steals and 1.7-1.9 stocks. The matchup data shows one strong prior game against Boston at 17 points, 5 rebounds, and 2 assists in 24 minutes, but the current prop market is higher than his recent scoring form. With the available lines, the most reliable angles lean toward lower-scoring and modest volume production rather than a ceiling game.

Stat Trends

PPG

3.4(↓ from 6.8)

RPG

3.0(→ from 2.6)

APG

0.8(↓ from 1.4)

SPG

1.6(↑ from 1.2)

Key Matchup

Boston-specific defender data is limited, and there is no specific defender matchup data beyond the listed key defenders. The opponent profile shows a 107.07 defensive rating, 100 pace, and a 0.125 three suppression, which does not strongly boost his perimeter scoring outlook.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Will Richard▼	Points	7.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	7	✓
Will Richard▼	Rebounds	3.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	2	✓
Will Richard▼	Assists	1.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	2	✗
Will Richard▼	3PM	1.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	—	80%	0	✓
Will Richard▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	61%MEDIUM	2/2	80%	2	✓
Will Richard▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	86%HIGH	—	80%	0	✓
Will Richard▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	59%MEDIUM	—	50%	2	✓
Will Richard▼	PRA	11.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	11	✓
Will Richard▼	P+A	8.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	9	✗

ML Scout Analysis

R+A4UNDER0%gbt_raDecent Leg (12/20)8/1844%▼

P+R9.5UNDER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 2x8/1844%▼

P+A8OVER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 2x9/1850%▼

Featured Pick

Will Richard

Blocks UNDER 0.5HIGH

This is the cleanest edge in the data. His season average is 0.1 blocks and his last 5 are 0.2, so the 0.5 line is far above his normal production and gives the under a strong statistical cushion.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Payton Pritchard	2	6	4	50%	50%
Derrick White	2	4	4	67%	67%
Jaylen Brown	2	2	8	43%	43%
Hugo González	2	1	0	0%	0%
Ron Harper Jr.	2	1	3	50%	75%

pointsUNDER 7.566%MEDIUM

His season mean is 6.8 PPG and his last 5 are only 3.4 PPG, which sits below 7.5. The recent scoring trend is down, and his recent games include two zero-point outings.

reboundsUNDER 3.560%MEDIUM

He averages 2.6 RPG on the season and 3.3 RPG over the last 10, both close to but still below 3.5. The under is supported by his 2.6 season mean and 2.6/2.7 home-away baseline.

assistsUNDER 1.558%MEDIUM

His season mean is 1.4 APG and his last 5 are 0.8 APG, so 1.5 is a narrow but still reasonable under. The last 10 are exactly 1.5, which adds some push risk but not enough to favor the over.

threesUNDER 1.564%MEDIUM

He averages 1.09 threes per game on the season and just 0.9 over the last 5, below the 1.5 line. Recent shot volume from deep has also been light at 0.4 fg3m per game in the last 5.

stealsOVER 0.561%MEDIUM

He averages 1.2 steals per game on the season and 1.6 over the last 5, making 0.5 a favorable threshold. The defensive event profile remains his best steady production path.

blocksUNDER 0.586%HIGH

He averages only 0.1 blocks per game on the season and 0.2 over the last 5. This is well below the 0.5 line and makes the under the clear side.

stocksOVER 1.559%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.33, while the last 10 and last 20 are 1.7 and 1.9 respectively. That recent defensive activity gives the over a reasonable path even with some variance.

praUNDER 11.563%MEDIUM

His season PRA using the provided averages is 10.8, and his recent scoring slump pulls the combo down further. A 11.5 line asks for more offense than his current form has shown.

paUNDER 8.560%MEDIUM

Using the season means, his points plus assists come to 8.2, which is just under the line. The last 5 scoring and assist averages both point to a slightly lower output.

timelineUNDER 7.5 PTS