Last 10 games
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephon Castle | 3 | 8 | 33% | -14.2% | medium |
| Anthony Edwards | 2 | 7 | 79% | +19.2% | low |
| Josh Giddey | 2 | 6 | 64% | +9.6% | low |
| Payton Pritchard | 2 | 6 | 50% |
Will Richard is coming off a down stretch, with his last 5 games at 3.4 PPG, 3.0 RPG, and 0.8 APG despite 25.4 MPG. His season numbers are steadier at 6.8 PPG, 2.6 RPG, and 1.4 APG, and his last 10/20 samples suggest a usable defensive-playmaking profile with 1.5-1.7 steals and 1.7-1.9 stocks. The matchup data shows one strong prior game against Boston at 17 points, 5 rebounds, and 2 assists in 24 minutes, but the current prop market is higher than his recent scoring form. With the available lines, the most reliable angles lean toward lower-scoring and modest volume production rather than a ceiling game.
Boston-specific defender data is limited, and there is no specific defender matchup data beyond the listed key defenders. The opponent profile shows a 107.07 defensive rating, 100 pace, and a 0.125 three suppression, which does not strongly boost his perimeter scoring outlook.
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Will Richard▼ | Points | 7.5 | UNDER | 66%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 60% | 7 | ✓ |
Will Richard▼ | Rebounds | 3.5 | UNDER | 60%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 50% | 2 | ✓ |
Will Richard▼ | Assists | 1.5 | UNDER | 58%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 60% | 2 | ✗ |
Will Richard▼ | 3PM | 1.5 | UNDER | 64%MEDIUM | — | 80% | 0 | ✓ |
Will Richard▼ | Steals | 0.5 | OVER | 61%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 80% | 2 | ✓ |
Will Richard▼ | Blocks | 0.5 | UNDER | 86%HIGH | — | 80% | 0 | ✓ |
Will Richard▼ | STL+BLK | 1.5 | OVER | 59%MEDIUM | — | 50% | 2 | ✓ |
Will Richard▼ | PRA | 11.5 | UNDER | 63%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 60% | 11 | ✓ |
Will Richard▼ | P+A | 8.5 | UNDER | 60%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 60% | 9 | ✗ |
This is the cleanest edge in the data. His season average is 0.1 blocks and his last 5 are 0.2, so the 0.5 line is far above his normal production and gives the under a strong statistical cushion.
| low |
| Immanuel Quickley | 2 | 6 | 30% | -27.5% | low |
| Defender | Games | Min | PTS | FG% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payton Pritchard | 2 | 6 | 4 | 50% | 50% |
| Derrick White | 2 | 4 | 4 | 67% | 67% |
| Jaylen Brown | 2 | 2 | 8 | 43% | 43% |
| Hugo González | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Ron Harper Jr. | 2 | 1 | 3 | 50% | 75% |
His season mean is 6.8 PPG and his last 5 are only 3.4 PPG, which sits below 7.5. The recent scoring trend is down, and his recent games include two zero-point outings.
He averages 2.6 RPG on the season and 3.3 RPG over the last 10, both close to but still below 3.5. The under is supported by his 2.6 season mean and 2.6/2.7 home-away baseline.
His season mean is 1.4 APG and his last 5 are 0.8 APG, so 1.5 is a narrow but still reasonable under. The last 10 are exactly 1.5, which adds some push risk but not enough to favor the over.
He averages 1.09 threes per game on the season and just 0.9 over the last 5, below the 1.5 line. Recent shot volume from deep has also been light at 0.4 fg3m per game in the last 5.
He averages 1.2 steals per game on the season and 1.6 over the last 5, making 0.5 a favorable threshold. The defensive event profile remains his best steady production path.
He averages only 0.1 blocks per game on the season and 0.2 over the last 5. This is well below the 0.5 line and makes the under the clear side.
His season stocks average is 1.33, while the last 10 and last 20 are 1.7 and 1.9 respectively. That recent defensive activity gives the over a reasonable path even with some variance.
His season PRA using the provided averages is 10.8, and his recent scoring slump pulls the combo down further. A 11.5 line asks for more offense than his current form has shown.
Using the season means, his points plus assists come to 8.2, which is just under the line. The last 5 scoring and assist averages both point to a slightly lower output.