AI Model:

Brook Lopez▼

LAC · C

PPG

7.6

RPG

3.1

APG

1.1

L5 PPG

6.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-1.0

7.6

6.6

RPG-0.1

3.1

3.0

APG+0.5

1.1

1.6

SPG-0.2

0.6

0.4

BPG+1.1

1.1

2.2

UNDER 8.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

8.5

NOP

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs NOP: 16 pts

GSW

2026-03-02

2026-03-02 vs GSW: 6 pts

IND

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs IND: 17 pts

SAS

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs SAS: 26 pts

MEM

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs MEM: 4 pts

NYK

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs NYK: 16 pts

MIN

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs MIN: 3 pts

CHI

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs CHI: 11 pts

SAC

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs SAC: 0 pts

SAS

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs SAS: 3 pts

Over 8.5

Under 8.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 8.5FANDUEL

64%

REB

UNDER 3.5FANDUEL

57%

AST

OVER 0.5STAKE

86%

3PM

UNDER 1.5FANDUEL

55%

BLK

UNDER 1.5FANDUEL

59%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

69%

UNDER 0.5

78%

P+R

UNDER 13.5DRAFTKINGS

63%

P+A

UNDER 11.5FANDUEL

67%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

9.2

11.8

RPG

3.7

4.4

APG

1.7

1.5

vs NOP (H2H)10 games

PPG

14.6

RPG

5.5

APG

1.5

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Rudy Gobert	4	25	83%	+41.3%	medium
Alperen Sengun	4	19	54%	+10.2%	medium
Donovan Clingan	3	16	56%	-4.5%	medium
Maxime Raynaud	3	16	92%

Brook Lopez brings low-scoring floor with elite block upside

Lopez is coming off a down stretch overall, with his last 5 games at 6.6 PPG, 3.0 RPG, and 2.2 BPG after averaging 10.2 PPG over his last 10 and last 20. His minutes have recently risen to 26.2 in the last 5 from a 20.5 season average, which helps the defensive stats more than the scoring profile. The matchup data shows a strong history vs this opponent at 14.6 PPG and 5.5 RPG across 10 games, but the current market is set much lower than that production level. With several available lines sitting above his season means, the best angles lean toward controlled scoring and rebounds rather than chasing an outlier offensive night.

Stat Trends

PPG

6.6(↓ from 7.6)

RPG

3.0(→ from 3.1)

APG

1.6(↑ from 1.1)

BPG

2.2(↑ from 1.1)

Key Matchup

There is no specific defender matchup data. The opponent profile shows a 119.71 defensive rating and a pace of 100, while Lopez has posted 14.6 PPG and 5.5 RPG in 10 games vs this opponent.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Brook Lopez▼	Points	8.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	11	✗
Brook Lopez▼	Rebounds	3.5	UNDER	57%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	5	✗
Brook Lopez▼	Assists	0.5	OVER	86%HIGH	1/2	80%	4	✓
Brook Lopez▼	3PM	1.5	UNDER	55%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	0	✓
Brook Lopez▼	Blocks	1.5	UNDER	59%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	0	✓
Brook Lopez▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	69%MEDIUM	—	40%	0	✗
Brook Lopez▼	Turnovers	0.5	UNDER	78%HIGH	—	70%	0	✓
Brook Lopez▼	P+R	13.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	16	✗
Brook Lopez▼	P+A	11.5	UNDER	67%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	15	✗

ML Scout Analysis

PTS10.5UNDER3%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (15/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Scorecard changed +3.0▼

AST1.5OVER26%gbt_assistsDecent Leg (13/20)14/2070%+12.6% edge▼

P+A13UNDER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (13/20)UNDER 2x9/2045%▼

P+R15.5OVER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 2x11/2055%▼

REB4.5OVER14%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (11/20)10/2050%▼

BLK1.5UNDER66%gbt_blocksWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x9/2045%Confidence moved MEDIUM to HIGH▼

3PM1.5UNDER7%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x8/2040%+10.3% edge▼

PRA18.5OVER5%gbt_praWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x11/2055%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Value edge shifted +0.148; Scorecard changed -3.0▼

R+A6.5OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (11/20)10/2050%▼

Featured Pick

Brook Lopez

Assists OVER 0.5HIGH

This is the cleanest number on the board relative to his production. Lopez averages 1.1 assists for the season and 1.6 over the last 5, so he only needs one dime to cash.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Yves Missi	3	8	4	100%	100%
Derik Queen	4	6	10	67%	83%
Karlo Matković	4	4	0	0%	0%
Zion Williamson	2	4	9	60%	60%
DeAndre Jordan	1	4	2	100%	100%

pointsUNDER 8.564%MEDIUM

His season mean is 7.6 PPG and the last 5 is 6.6, so 8.5 is above both baselines. The recent scoring volatility is high, but the current form still points to a modest output.

reboundsUNDER 3.557%MEDIUM

He averages 3.1 RPG on the season and 3.0 over the last 5, making 3.5 a slight ask. His matchup history is stronger, but the recent rebound volume is still below the line.

assistsOVER 0.586%HIGH

Lopez averages 1.1 APG on the season and 1.6 over the last 5, so 0.5 is a very low bar. Even with variance, he clears this often enough to be the safest prop.

threesUNDER 1.555%MEDIUM

He averages 1.43 threes per game on the season and 1.5 in recent windows, but the line is set at 1.5. This sits close to fair value, with the under slightly favored because his output has been inconsistent.

blocksUNDER 1.559%MEDIUM

He averages 1.1 BPG on the season and the last 5 spiked to 2.2, but 1.5 is still a demanding number. The recent surge supports block upside, yet the season-long baseline is closer to the under.

stocksOVER 1.569%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.72 and his last 20 is 2.1, both above 1.5. With 2.2 blocks per game over the last 5, combined defensive production remains his strongest angle.

turnoversUNDER 0.578%HIGH

He is only at 0.4 turnovers over the last 10 and 0.7 over the last 20, with 0.6 on the season. That makes a half-turnover line a strong under lean.

prUNDER 13.563%MEDIUM

His season points-plus-rebounds profile is 10.7, and the last 5 is only 9.6 using 6.6 PPG and 3.0 RPG. The line needs a meaningfully better scoring or rebounding game than his current form suggests.

paUNDER 11.567%MEDIUM

Season points plus assists sits at 8.7, and recent form is 8.2 from 6.6 PPG and 1.6 APG. He would need a clear scoring jump to get past 11.5.

timelineUNDER 8.5 PTS