AI Model:
PG
Darius Garland▲
LAC · PG
PPG
18.4
RPG
2.4
APG
6.8
L5 PPG
23.0
Last 10 GamesPTS
Season vs Last 5
Season Last 5
PPG+4.6
18.4
23.0
RPG-0.2
2.4
2.2
APG+0.4
6.8
7.2
SPG+0.5
0.9
1.4
BPG-0.1
0.1
0.0
OVER 20.5 PTS
Last 10 games
5
Current Streak
5
Longest Streak
OVER
Streak Type
20.5
22
MIN
2026-01-10
2026-01-10 vs MIN: 22 pts
23
UTA
2026-01-12
2026-01-12 vs UTA: 23 pts
20
PHI
2026-01-14
2026-01-14 vs PHI: 20 pts
12
GSW
2026-03-02
2026-03-02 vs GSW: 12 pts
12
IND
2026-03-04
2026-03-04 vs IND: 12 pts
21
MEM
2026-03-07
2026-03-07 vs MEM: 21 pts
23
NYK
2026-03-09
2026-03-09 vs NYK: 23 pts
21
MIN
2026-03-11
2026-03-11 vs MIN: 21 pts
25
SAC
2026-03-14
2026-03-14 vs SAC: 25 pts
25
SAS
2026-03-16
2026-03-16 vs SAS: 25 pts
Over 20.5
Under 20.5
Last 10 games
Prop Confidence
PTS
OVER 20.5FANDUEL
68%
AST
UNDER 7.5FANDUEL
56%
REB
UNDER 2.5FANDUEL
74%
3PM
OVER 3.5FANDUEL
61%
STL
UNDER 1.5FANDUEL
70%
PRA
OVER 30.5FANDUEL
64%
Home vs Away
Home
Away
PPG
20.1
18.1
RPG
1.9
2.2
APG
7.5
6.4
vs NOP (H2H)5 games
PPG
18.4
RPG
3.2
APG
9.2
Defensive Matchup Profile
Top Defenders This Season
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donte DiVincenzo | 3 | 14 | 100% | +28.5% | medium |
| Devin Vassell | 3 | 11 | 70% | +3.5% | medium |
| Gary Trent Jr. | 2 | 10 | 42% | -13.2% | low |
| Andrew Nembhard | 4 | 10 | 72% |
Garland’s scoring is heating up, but the toe tag adds volatility
Darius Garland’s form is trending up: he’s at 23.0 PPG over his last 5 games versus 18.4 for the season, and his recent assists have also stayed strong at 7.2 per game. The matchup isn’t a clean boost or fade based on the data, but New Orleans has a 119.71 defensive rating and his career-ish sample vs this opponent shows 18.4 PPG and 9.2 APG across 5 games. The main concern is availability and efficiency risk with his Questionable status (LeftToe), which makes his minutes and volume less secure than the recent box scores suggest.
Stat Trends
PPG
23.0(↑ from 18.4)
APG
7.2(↑ from 6.8)
3PM
4.4(↑ from 2.6)
STL+BLK
1.4(↑ from 1.0)
Key Matchup
There is no specific defender matchup data available beyond the listed key defenders, so there is no specific defender matchup data to anchor a one-on-one read. The opponent context does show New Orleans with a 119.71 defensive rating and 100 pace, which points to a playable but not perfect environment.
Prop Analysis
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | Trend | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Darius Garland▼ | Points | 20.5 | OVER | 68%MEDIUM | 70% | 13 | ✗ |
Darius Garland▼ | Assists | 7.5 | UNDER | 56%MEDIUM | 70% | 6 | ✓ |
Darius Garland▼ | Rebounds | 2.5 | UNDER | 74%HIGH | 60% | 1 | ✓ |
Darius Garland▼ | 3PM | 3.5 | OVER | 61%MEDIUM | 50% | 1 | ✗ |
Darius Garland▼ | Steals | 1.5 | UNDER | 70%HIGH | 60% | 1 | ✓ |
Darius Garland▼ | PRA | 30.5 | OVER | 64%MEDIUM | 50% | 20 | ✗ |
pointsOVER 20.568%MEDIUM
His last 5 games are at 23.0 PPG, well above the 20.5 line, and he’s scored 25 in each of his last two games. The toe issue lowers confidence, but the recent scoring trend is strong.
assistsUNDER 7.5
ML Scout Analysis
PTS19.5OVER24%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (14/20)UNDER 2x12/2060%+7.2% edge▼
R+A9OVER0%gbt_raDecent Leg (13/20)10/2050%▼
AST7.5OVER2%gbt_assistsDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 3x6/2030%▼
PRA29.5OVER7%gbt_praDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 4x9/2045%▼
REB2.5UNDER33%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (11/20)7/2035%+12.6% edge▼
P+R22.5UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 4x9/2045%▼
P+A27UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 4x8/2040%▼
3PM2.5OVER34%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 2x13/2065%▼
FTM2UNDER29%gbtWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 2x6/2030%▼
STL1UNDER31%gbt_stealsWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 2x7/2035%▼
3PA8UNDER25%gbtWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 4x8/2040%▼
FTA2UNDER1%gbtWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 2x8/2040%▼
Featured Pick
Darius Garland
Points OVER 20.5MEDIUM
This is the cleanest combination of current form and market number: 23.0 PPG over his last 5 compared with 18.4 for the season, plus he has scored 25 in back-to-back games. The toe injury keeps it from being a high-confidence play, but the recent scoring trend is strong enough to lean over.
This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.