Last 10 games
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Wells | 4 | 15 | 58% | +3.0% | medium |
| Devin Vassell | 4 | 14 | 35% | -23.9% | medium |
| Jabari Smith Jr. | 3 | 14 | 73% | +7.5% | medium |
| Jaden McDaniels | 3 | 14 | 44% |
Trey Murphy III is averaging 21.9 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 3.9 assists on the season while playing 35.4 minutes per game, with his last 5 showing 21.0 points, 5.4 rebounds, and 5.0 assists. His recent trend is down in scoring, but the playmaking and defensive numbers have held up, and he’s still logging starter-level minutes. Against LA Clippers, his prior head-to-head sample is much lower at 12.9 points, 3.1 rebounds, and 2.1 assists across 14 games, which adds some caution to his scoring projection. The Clippers’ opponent profile also shows a 112.81 defensive rating and scoring suppression of -0.582, so this is not a soft spot on paper.
No specific defender matchup data beyond the listed key defenders, so the cleanest takeaway is the opponent profile itself: LA Clippers have a 112.81 defensive rating, pace of 100, and scoring suppression of -0.582. Trey Murphy III also has a notably lower 14-game vs-opponent line at 12.928571428571429 points, 3.142857142857143 rebounds, and 2.0714285714285716 assists.
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Trey Murphy III▼ | Points | 20.5 | UNDER | 58%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 40% | 23 | ✗ |
Trey Murphy III▼ | Rebounds | 4.5 | OVER | 62%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 60% | 7 | ✓ |
Trey Murphy III▼ | Assists | 3.5 | OVER | 60%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 80% | 5 | ✓ |
Trey Murphy III▼ | 3PM | 3.5 | OVER | 56%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 60% | 4 | ✓ |
Trey Murphy III▼ | Steals | 1.5 | OVER | 55%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 60% | 3 | ✓ |
Trey Murphy III▼ | Blocks | 0.5 | OVER | 54%MEDIUM | — | 30% | 1 | ✓ |
Trey Murphy III▼ | P+R | 26.5 | OVER | 57%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 40% | 30 | ✓ |
Trey Murphy III▼ | P+A | 25.5 | OVER | 61%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 40% | 28 | ✓ |
Trey Murphy III▼ | R+A | 8.5 | OVER | 59%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 80% | 12 | ✓ |
This is the cleanest combo of projection and recent form: his season assist average is 3.9, and his last 5 jumps to 5.0. The 3.5 line is below both his season and recent production, giving it a steadier profile than points in this matchup.
| medium |
| Derrick Jones Jr. | 4 | 14 | 75% | +19.7% | medium |
| Defender | Games | Min | PTS | FG% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Jones Jr. | 4 | 14 | 18 | 67% | 75% |
| Kawhi Leonard | 3 | 8 | 20 | 67% | 79% |
| Jordan Miller | 3 | 5 | 14 | 83% | 92% |
| John Collins | 4 | 5 | 9 | 38% | 38% |
| Kris Dunn | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
His season mean is 21.9, but his last 10 is 20.3 and his vs-opponent scoring is just 12.928571428571429 across 14 games. With the matchup data showing scoring suppression and his trend labeled down, the under has a small edge.
He averages 5.7 rebounds on the season and 5.0 over the last 10, with 5.86 away and 5.52 at home. That gives him a solid cushion over 4.5 even with a modest minutes dip lately.
Murphy is at 3.9 assists per game for the season and 4.9 over the last 10, which is a meaningful recent uptick. The 3.5 line is below both his season and recent production.
He averages 3.28 threes on the season and 3.6 in the last 5, with 3.9 away and 3.55 in away games. The line is close, but his recent three-point volume supports a lean over.
His season steals average is 1.5 and last 5 is 1.6, so the market is basically asking him to hit his exact production level. The recent consistency keeps this playable, though variance is high.
He averages 0.3 blocks on the season and 0.4 over the last 5, so this is not a strong statistical over. It is included because the line is low and he has occasional block upside, but the better side is not forced.
His season points plus rebounds average is 27.57, and his last 5 points/rebounds combine to 26.4 before accounting for any boost from volume. The line sits just below his season baseline.
Murphy’s season points + assists average is 25.8, and his last 5 is 26.0. The recent assist surge makes this a slightly better angle than pure points.
He averages 9.6 rebounds plus assists on the season and 9.9 over the last 10, which is right in line with the 8.5 number. Even with the matchup concerns, the combo remains supported by his role.