AI Model:

Trey Murphy III▼

NOP · SG

PPG

21.9

RPG

5.7

APG

3.9

L5 PPG

21.0

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-0.9

21.9

21.0

RPG-0.3

5.7

5.4

APG+1.1

3.9

5.0

SPG+0.1

1.5

1.6

BPG+0.1

0.3

0.4

UNDER 20.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

20.5

SAC

2026-02-09

2026-02-09 vs SAC: 21 pts

MIA

2026-02-11

2026-02-11 vs MIA: 19 pts

LAC

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs LAC: 16 pts

LAL

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs LAL: 21 pts

SAC

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs SAC: 21 pts

PHX

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs PHX: 22 pts

WAS

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs WAS: 24 pts

TOR

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs TOR: 28 pts

HOU

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs HOU: 14 pts

DAL

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs DAL: 17 pts

Over 20.5

Under 20.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 20.5DRAFTKINGS

58%

REB

OVER 4.5DRAFTKINGS

62%

AST

OVER 3.5DRAFTKINGS

60%

3PM

OVER 3.5DRAFTKINGS

56%

STL

OVER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

55%

BLK

OVER 0.5BETMGM

54%

P+R

OVER 26.5DRAFTKINGS

57%

P+A

OVER 25.5DRAFTKINGS

61%

R+A

OVER 8.5DRAFTKINGS

59%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

19.1

22.3

RPG

4.3

4.9

APG

4.4

4.6

vs LAC (H2H)14 games

PPG

12.9

RPG

3.1

APG

2.1

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Jaylen Wells	4	15	58%	+3.0%	medium
Devin Vassell	4	14	35%	-23.9%	medium
Jabari Smith Jr.	3	14	73%	+7.5%	medium
Jaden McDaniels	3	14	44%

Murphy’s volume stays strong, but this matchup points to a tighter scoring night

Trey Murphy III is averaging 21.9 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 3.9 assists on the season while playing 35.4 minutes per game, with his last 5 showing 21.0 points, 5.4 rebounds, and 5.0 assists. His recent trend is down in scoring, but the playmaking and defensive numbers have held up, and he’s still logging starter-level minutes. Against LA Clippers, his prior head-to-head sample is much lower at 12.9 points, 3.1 rebounds, and 2.1 assists across 14 games, which adds some caution to his scoring projection. The Clippers’ opponent profile also shows a 112.81 defensive rating and scoring suppression of -0.582, so this is not a soft spot on paper.

Stat Trends

PPG

21.0(↓ from 21.9)

RPG

5.4(→ from 5.7)

APG

5.0(↑ from 3.9)

Stocks

2.0(→ from 1.9)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data beyond the listed key defenders, so the cleanest takeaway is the opponent profile itself: LA Clippers have a 112.81 defensive rating, pace of 100, and scoring suppression of -0.582. Trey Murphy III also has a notably lower 14-game vs-opponent line at 12.928571428571429 points, 3.142857142857143 rebounds, and 2.0714285714285716 assists.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Trey Murphy III▼	Points	20.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	23	✗
Trey Murphy III▼	Rebounds	4.5	OVER	62%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	7	✓
Trey Murphy III▼	Assists	3.5	OVER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	80%	5	✓
Trey Murphy III▼	3PM	3.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	4	✓
Trey Murphy III▼	Steals	1.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	3	✓
Trey Murphy III▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	—	30%	1	✓
Trey Murphy III▼	P+R	26.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	30	✓
Trey Murphy III▼	P+A	25.5	OVER	61%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	28	✓
Trey Murphy III▼	R+A	8.5	OVER	59%MEDIUM	2/2	80%	12	✓

ML Scout Analysis

P+R27OVER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (14/20)UNDER 4x10/2050%▼

R+A9.5OVER0%gbt_raDecent Leg (13/20)11/2055%▼

P+A25.5UNDER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (13/20)UNDER 4x9/2045%▼

Featured Pick

Trey Murphy III

Assists OVER 3.5MEDIUM

This is the cleanest combo of projection and recent form: his season assist average is 3.9, and his last 5 jumps to 5.0. The 3.5 line is below both his season and recent production, giving it a steadier profile than points in this matchup.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Derrick Jones Jr.	4	14	18	67%	75%
Kawhi Leonard	3	8	20	67%	79%
Jordan Miller	3	5	14	83%	92%
John Collins	4	5	9	38%	38%
Kris Dunn	4	4	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 20.558%MEDIUM

His season mean is 21.9, but his last 10 is 20.3 and his vs-opponent scoring is just 12.928571428571429 across 14 games. With the matchup data showing scoring suppression and his trend labeled down, the under has a small edge.

reboundsOVER 4.562%MEDIUM

He averages 5.7 rebounds on the season and 5.0 over the last 10, with 5.86 away and 5.52 at home. That gives him a solid cushion over 4.5 even with a modest minutes dip lately.

assistsOVER 3.560%MEDIUM

Murphy is at 3.9 assists per game for the season and 4.9 over the last 10, which is a meaningful recent uptick. The 3.5 line is below both his season and recent production.

threesOVER 3.556%MEDIUM

He averages 3.28 threes on the season and 3.6 in the last 5, with 3.9 away and 3.55 in away games. The line is close, but his recent three-point volume supports a lean over.

stealsOVER 1.555%MEDIUM

His season steals average is 1.5 and last 5 is 1.6, so the market is basically asking him to hit his exact production level. The recent consistency keeps this playable, though variance is high.

blocksOVER 0.554%MEDIUM

He averages 0.3 blocks on the season and 0.4 over the last 5, so this is not a strong statistical over. It is included because the line is low and he has occasional block upside, but the better side is not forced.

prOVER 26.557%MEDIUM

His season points plus rebounds average is 27.57, and his last 5 points/rebounds combine to 26.4 before accounting for any boost from volume. The line sits just below his season baseline.

paOVER 25.561%MEDIUM

Murphy’s season points + assists average is 25.8, and his last 5 is 26.0. The recent assist surge makes this a slightly better angle than pure points.

raOVER 8.559%MEDIUM

He averages 9.6 rebounds plus assists on the season and 9.9 over the last 10, which is right in line with the 8.5 number. Even with the matchup concerns, the combo remains supported by his role.

timelineUNDER 20.5 PTS