AI Model:

Zion Williamson▲

NOP · PF

PPG

21.5

RPG

5.8

APG

3.3

L5 PPG

21.2

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-0.3

21.5

21.2

RPG-0.4

5.8

5.4

APG-1.3

3.3

2.0

SPG-0.6

1.0

0.4

BPG-0.2

0.6

0.4

OVER 21.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

21.5

GSW

2026-02-24

2026-02-24 vs GSW: 26 pts

UTA

2026-02-26

2026-02-26 vs UTA: 20 pts

UTA

2026-02-28

2026-02-28 vs UTA: 4 pts

LAL

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs LAL: 24 pts

SAC

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs SAC: 23 pts

PHX

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs PHX: 19 pts

WAS

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs WAS: 20 pts

TOR

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs TOR: 19 pts

HOU

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs HOU: 21 pts

DAL

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs DAL: 27 pts

Over 21.5

Under 21.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

OVER 21.5DRAFTKINGS

68%

REB

UNDER 5.5DRAFTKINGS

57%

AST

UNDER 3.5DRAFTKINGS

64%

BLK

OVER 0.5BETMGM

55%

STL

OVER 0.5STAKE

67%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

58%

OVER 1.5

62%

P+R

OVER 27.5DRAFTKINGS

66%

P+A

OVER 25.5DRAFTKINGS

61%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

23.2

18.7

RPG

4.7

6.3

APG

3.2

2.9

vs LAC (H2H)9 games

PPG

24.6

RPG

5.9

APG

5.8

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Precious Achiuwa	3	17	33%	-26.7%	medium
Jabari Smith Jr.	4	17	44%	-26.7%	medium
Jaren Jackson Jr.	4	14	66%	-5.5%	medium
P.J. Washington	3	11	88%

Zion’s scoring sits in a strong spot, but the rebound and assist profile is more fragile

Zion Williamson is averaging 21.5 PPG, 5.8 RPG, and 3.3 APG on the season while playing 29.6 MPG, and his recent scoring has held steady at 21.2 PPG over the last 5. The matchup data is mixed: he has produced 24.6 PPG, 5.9 RPG, and 5.8 APG in 9 games vs this opponent, but the team defensive profile shows a 112.81 defensive rating with a scoring suppression mark of -0.582 and 0.911 three-point suppression. His home split is also better for scoring at 23.2 PPG compared with 18.7 PPG away, which supports his points outlook in New Orleans.

Stat Trends

PPG

21.2(→ from 21.5)

RPG

5.4(↓ from 5.8)

APG

2.0(↓ from 3.3)

Key Matchup

Key defender data is limited, so there is no specific defender matchup data beyond the listed names. The broader opponent profile is middling defensively, with a 112.81 defensive rating and 100 pace, which keeps Zion’s scoring outlook intact while not strongly boosting peripherals.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Zion Williamson▼	Points	21.5	OVER	68%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	14	✗
Zion Williamson▼	Rebounds	5.5	UNDER	57%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	4	✓
Zion Williamson▼	Assists	3.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	3	✓
Zion Williamson▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	—	30%	1	✓
Zion Williamson▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	67%MEDIUM	—	60%	0	✗
Zion Williamson▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	—	70%	1	✓
Zion Williamson▼	Turnovers	1.5	OVER	62%MEDIUM	—	50%	2	✓
Zion Williamson▼	P+R	27.5	OVER	66%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	18	✗
Zion Williamson▼	P+A	25.5	OVER	61%MEDIUM	1/2	30%	17	✗

ML Scout Analysis

PTS22.5UNDER11%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (15/20)UNDER 7x5/2025%+22.9% edgeConfidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

PRA34.5UNDER48%gbt_praDecent Leg (14/20)UNDER 7x2/2010%+35.0% edgeConfidence moved MEDIUM to HIGH▼

P+R24.5OVER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (14/20)UNDER 4x11/2055%▼

P+A21.5OVER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (14/20)UNDER 4x12/2060%▼

REB6.5UNDER56%gbt_reboundsDecent Leg (13/20)4/2020%+23.5% edgeConfidence moved LOW to HIGH▼

AST4.5UNDER60%gbt_assistsDecent Leg (13/20)UNDER 15x1/205%+33.8% edge▼

R+A7.5UNDER0%gbt_raDecent Leg (12/20)OVER 2x9/2045%▼

Featured Pick

Zion Williamson

Points OVER 21.5HIGH

This is the cleanest angle because his season average is exactly 21.5 PPG, his last 5 is 21.2, and his home split rises to 23.2 PPG. He has also posted 24.6 PPG across 9 games vs this opponent, giving the over multiple supporting layers.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
John Collins	3	7	6	29%	36%
Kawhi Leonard	2	6	13	67%	92%
Derrick Jones Jr.	3	6	6	67%	67%
Brook Lopez	3	4	1	0%	0%
Kris Dunn	3	2	3	33%	50%

pointsOVER 21.568%MEDIUM

He is averaging 21.5 PPG for the season and 21.2 over the last 5, with a stronger home scoring split at 23.2 PPG. He has also averaged 24.6 PPG in 9 games vs this opponent.

reboundsUNDER 5.557%MEDIUM

His season average is 5.8 RPG, but the last 5 is down to 5.4 and his home rebound split is only 4.7 RPG. Recent game logs show multiple outings at 4 or fewer rebounds.

assistsUNDER 3.564%MEDIUM

Zion is averaging 3.3 APG on the season, but only 2.0 APG over the last 5 and 2.1 over the last 10. The recent assist trend is clearly below the 3.5 line.

blocksOVER 0.555%MEDIUM

He averages 0.6 BPG on the season, which clears the 0.5 line. The sample is not huge, but his block production is enough to support an over lean.

stealsOVER 0.567%MEDIUM

Zion averages 1.0 SPG for the season and 1.0 over the last 10, well above a 0.5 line. Even though the last 5 is only 0.4, the season baseline remains strong.

stocksUNDER 1.558%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.56, but the last 10 is 1.4 and the last 5 is 0.8. With the recent defensive counting stats cooling off, the under is slightly favored.

turnoversOVER 1.562%MEDIUM

He is at 1.8 turnovers over the last 20 and 2.0 away, with 1.6 over the last 5. That profile makes a 1.5 turnover line playable to the over.

prOVER 27.566%MEDIUM

Zion combines 21.5 PPG with 5.8 RPG, and his 24.6 PPG vs this opponent gives the scoring side a boost. The 27.5 line is close enough to his normal production to favor the over.

paOVER 25.561%MEDIUM

He averages 21.5 points plus 3.3 assists for a season baseline of 24.8 PA, and his head-to-head assist output vs this opponent is 5.8 APG. That extra playmaking history supports the over.

timelineOVER 21.5 PTS

Defensive Matchup Profile

Zion’s scoring sits in a strong spot, but the rebound and assist profile is more fragile

Stat Trends

Key Matchup

Prop Analysis

ML Scout Analysis

Featured Pick

OVER 21.5 PTS