AI Model:

Chet Holmgren—

OKC · PF

PPG

17.3

RPG

9.1

APG

1.7

L5 PPG

19.0

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+1.7

17.3

19.0

RPG+0.7

9.1

9.8

APG-0.3

1.7

1.4

SPG0.0

0.6

BPG-1.1

1.9

0.8

OVER 15.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

15.5

BKN

2026-02-20

2026-02-20 vs BKN: 15 pts

CLE

2026-02-22

2026-02-22 vs CLE: 17 pts

TOR

2026-02-24

2026-02-24 vs TOR: 7 pts

DEN

2026-02-27

2026-02-27 vs DEN: 15 pts

DAL

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs DAL: 19 pts

CHI

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs CHI: 12 pts

NYK

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs NYK: 28 pts

BOS

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs BOS: 14 pts

MIN

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs MIN: 21 pts

ORL

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs ORL: 20 pts

Over 15.5

Under 15.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

OVER 15.5DRAFTKINGS

64%

REB

OVER 8.5DRAFTKINGS

67%

AST

OVER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

56%

BLK

OVER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

58%

3PM

UNDER 1.5FANDUEL

62%

P+R

OVER 23.5DRAFTKINGS

60%

R+A

OVER 9.5BETMGM

63%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

17.0

15.7

RPG

12.3

8.0

APG

2.0

1.9

vs BKN (H2H)4 games

PPG

18.0

RPG

10.0

APG

3.0

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Mark Williams	4	18	45%	-9.8%	medium
Alperen Sengun	3	17	42%	-13.2%	medium
Harrison Barnes	4	16	44%	-11.6%	medium
Bam Adebayo	2	14	59%

Chet’s two-way profile stays strong, with rebounds and blocks leading the way

Chet Holmgren is coming in with stable production at 17.3 points, 9.1 rebounds, and 1.9 blocks per game on the season, and his last 5 show a bump to 19.0 points and 9.8 rebounds. His recent line shape supports a strong rebounding base, while his blocks remain volatile, with 0.8 per game over the last 5 but 1.5 over the last 10 and 1.6 over the last 20. The matchup is workable against a Nets defense allowing a 115.59 def rating, and Chet’s season-average minutes of 29.4 have held near 30.7 in recent games. With Brooklyn on 2 days rest and OKC on a back-to-back, the main concern is slightly flatter efficiency, but Chet’s volume still points to an impact night.

Stat Trends

PPG

19.0(↑ from 17.3)

RPG

9.8(↑ from 9.1)

BPG

0.8(↓ from 1.9)

APG

1.4(↓ from 1.7)

Key Matchup

There is no specific defender matchup data for this player beyond the listed key defenders, so the main read is team context rather than a targeted one-on-one. Brooklyn’s 115.59 defensive rating and 100 pace are workable, while the Nets have a scoring suppression mark of 0.061 and three suppression of 2.246.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Chet Holmgren▼	Points	15.5	OVER	64%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	11	✗
Chet Holmgren▼	Rebounds	8.5	OVER	67%MEDIUM	1/2	80%	2	✗
Chet Holmgren▼	Assists	1.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	1	✗
Chet Holmgren▼	Blocks	1.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	1	✗
Chet Holmgren▼	3PM	1.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	2/2	80%	0	✓
Chet Holmgren▼	P+R	23.5	OVER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	13	✗
Chet Holmgren▼	R+A	9.5	OVER	63%MEDIUM	1/2	80%	3	✗

ML Scout Analysis

PTS15.5UNDER53%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (11/20)10/2050%Confidence moved LOW to HIGH▼

P+A17.5OVER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (11/20)11/2055%▼

PRA24.5UNDER0%gbt_praWeak Leg (10/20)12/2060%▼

BLK1.5UNDER41%gbt_blocksWeak Leg (9/20)10/2050%Confidence moved MEDIUM to HIGH▼

R+A11UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 5x7/2035%▼

P+R24.5OVER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (9/20)11/2055%▼

3PM1.5UNDER45%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (8/20)4/2020%+10.6% edgeConfidence moved MEDIUM to HIGH▼

REB8.5UNDER34%gbt_reboundsAvoid (7/20)UNDER 2x13/2065%▼

Featured Pick

Chet Holmgren

Rebounds OVER 8.5HIGH

This is the cleanest number relative to his production. Chet is at 9.1 rebounds per game on the season, 11.0 over the last 10, and 12.3 in home games, so even with the back-to-back context his board volume remains the strongest angle.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Nic Claxton	1	6	2	50%	50%
Noah Clowney	2	4	2	25%	25%
Day'Ron Sharpe	1	2	2	100%	100%
Danny Wolf	2	1	0	0%	0%
Drake Powell	2	1	0	0%	0%

pointsOVER 15.564%MEDIUM

He averages 17.3 points on the season and 19.0 over his last 5, which is above this line. Even with OKC on a back-to-back, his recent 30+ minute workload supports a steady scoring floor.

reboundsOVER 8.567%MEDIUM

Chet is at 9.1 rebounds per game for the season and 11.0 over the last 10. His home split is even stronger at 12.3 RPG, and the recent trend points to continued board production.

assistsOVER 1.556%MEDIUM

His season average is 1.7 assists and his recent mean is 2.1, so the over is live if the passing stays active. The variance is moderate, so this is more of a secondary angle than a core play.

blocksOVER 1.558%MEDIUM

He averages 1.9 blocks on the season and 1.5 over the last 10, which keeps him in range for an over at 1.5. The last 5 dipped to 0.8, so this comes with more volatility than his rebounding props.

threesUNDER 1.562%MEDIUM

Chet averages 1.25 threes per game and 1.3 over the last 5, but the 1.5 line is a touch above his baseline. With recent game logs showing several 0 or 1 three nights, the under has the cleaner profile.

prOVER 23.560%MEDIUM

His season averages of 17.3 points and 9.1 rebounds already total 26.4, comfortably above this number. Even with some shooting variance, the combined scoring and rebounding profile supports the over.

raOVER 9.563%MEDIUM

Chet averages 9.1 rebounds and 1.7 assists for a 10.8 R+A season mean, and his recent rebounding spike helps. This is a solid combo fit for his current role and minute level.

timelineOVER 15.5 PTS