AI Model:

Aaron Nesmith▲

IND · SG

PPG

13.6

RPG

4.3

APG

2.0

L5 PPG

19.2

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+5.6

13.6

19.2

RPG-2.3

4.3

2.0

APG-0.4

2.0

1.6

SPG-0.2

0.6

0.4

BPG-0.2

0.6

0.4

UNDER 17.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

17.5

TOR

2026-02-08

2026-02-08 vs TOR: 7 pts

NYK

2026-02-10

2026-02-10 vs NYK: 11 pts

WAS

2026-02-19

2026-02-19 vs WAS: 3 pts

LAC

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs LAC: 2 pts

LAL

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs LAL: 7 pts

POR

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs POR: 9 pts

SAC

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs SAC: 29 pts

NYK

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs NYK: 12 pts

MIL

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs MIL: 32 pts

NYK

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs NYK: 14 pts

Over 17.5

Under 17.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 17.5STAKE

70%

REB

UNDER 5.5STAKE

75%

AST

UNDER 2.5STAKE

70%

3PM

OVER 2.5

65%

STL

OVER 0.5STAKE

60%

BLK

OVER 0.5STAKE

60%

STL+BLK

OVER 1

65%

P+R

UNDER 22.5STAKE

75%

P+A

UNDER 19.5STAKE

70%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

14.0

12.4

RPG

3.7

3.4

APG

2.0

1.9

vs POR (H2H)8 games

PPG

10.0

RPG

3.1

APG

1.3

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Derrick White	2	11	38%	-8.1%	low
Luka Dončić	2	10	43%	-8.1%	low
Jalen Brunson	2	10	44%	-3.9%	low
Amen Thompson	2	9	0%	-41.4%

Nesmith's Hot Streak Faces Tough Portland Defense

Aaron Nesmith is on a scoring heater, averaging 19.2 PPG over his last five games, highlighted by a 32-point explosion against Milwaukee. However, tonight's matchup is a home game against a Portland defense he's historically struggled against, averaging just 10 PPG in 8 career meetings. While his recent form and home splits (14.0 PPG) are encouraging, his season-long inconsistency and poor history versus the Blazers create a volatile projection.

Stat Trends

PPG

19.2(↑ from 13.6)

RPG

2.0(↓ from 4.3)

3PM

3.0(↑ from 2.3)

STOCKS

0.8(↓ from 1.1)

Key Matchup

Portland's Deni Avdija has held Nesmith to 9 points on 28.6% shooting in 6 minutes of matchup data this season. Overall, Nesmith's career numbers vs the Blazers (10.0 PPG) are well below his season average.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Aaron Nesmith▼	Points	17.5	UNDER	70%HIGH	1/2	80%	15	✓
Aaron Nesmith▼	Rebounds	5.5	UNDER	75%HIGH	2/2	90%	3	✓
Aaron Nesmith▼	Assists	2.5	UNDER	70%HIGH	2/2	90%	1	✓
Aaron Nesmith▼	3PM	2.5	OVER	65%MEDIUM	2/2	20%	1	✗
Aaron Nesmith▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	60%MEDIUM	—	30%	1	✓
Aaron Nesmith▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	60%MEDIUM	—	40%	0	✗
Aaron Nesmith▼	STL+BLK	1	OVER	65%MEDIUM	—	20%	1	✗
Aaron Nesmith▼	P+R	22.5	UNDER	75%HIGH	2/2	80%	18	✓
Aaron Nesmith▼	P+A	19.5	UNDER	70%HIGH	2/2	80%	16	✓

ML Scout Analysis

P+R17.5OVER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (9/20)10/2050%▼

PTS14UNDER11%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (8/20)8/2040%▼

REB2OVER38%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (8/20)OVER 2x9/2045%▼

PRA18.5UNDER20%gbt_praWeak Leg (8/20)10/2050%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

FTM2UNDER55%gbtAvoid (7/20)UNDER 6x5/2025%▼

P+A16UNDER0%gbt_paAvoid (7/20)8/2040%▼

R+A4.5UNDER0%gbt_raAvoid (6/20)7/2035%▼

AST1UNDER10%gbt_assistsAvoid (5/20)9/2045%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Scorecard changed -2.0▼

3PM2UNDER26%gbt_three_pmAvoid (5/20)8/2040%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

3PA5UNDER27%gbtAvoid (5/20)9/2045%▼

FTA2UNDER29%gbtAvoid (5/20)UNDER 6x7/2035%▼

Featured Pick

Aaron Nesmith

Points UNDER 17.5HIGH

The 17.5 line is significantly above his season average (13.6) and, more importantly, his career average vs Portland (10.0). His recent hot streak is an outlier against a team he has consistently underperformed against, including a 9-point game just 10 days ago. The defensive matchup history is too strong to ignore.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Jrue Holiday	2	6	8	60%	80%
Deni Avdija	2	5	12	33%	33%
Jerami Grant	2	3	4	25%	38%
Toumani Camara	2	2	3	100%	150%
Vít Krejčí	1	2	2	100%	100%

pointsUNDER 17.570%HIGH

Despite a hot last five games (19.2 PPG), Nesmith averages only 10 PPG in 8 career games vs Portland and scored just 9 points against them on March 8.

reboundsUNDER 5.575%HIGH

His rebounding has cratered recently (2.0 RPG last 5, 2.7 RPG last 10), and he's averaged only 3.1 RPG career vs Portland, making the over a tough sell.

assistsUNDER 2.570%HIGH

He averages 1.6 APG over his last five and has a recent mean of 1.4 APG. His season average is 2.0, and he's exceeded 2.5 assists in only 3 of his last 10 games.

threesOVER 2.565%MEDIUM

He's hit 3.0 threes per game over his last five and Portland's three-point suppression (0.759) is below average. His season mean is 2.26, providing a solid baseline.

stealsOVER 0.560%MEDIUM

He averages 0.6 SPG for the season and has recorded a steal in 4 of his last 10 games. The line is low, offering a slight edge to the over.

blocksOVER 0.560%MEDIUM

He averages 0.6 BPG for the season and has a block in 5 of his last 10 games. Similar to steals, the low line provides value for the over.

stocksOVER 165%MEDIUM

His combined steals and blocks average is 1.15 for the season. He's exceeded 1.0 stocks in 6 of his last 10 games, making the over the more likely outcome.

prUNDER 22.575%HIGH

This combines his two weakest recent trends: scoring volatility vs Portland and plummeting rebounds. His last 5-game P+R average is just 21.2.

paUNDER 19.570%HIGH

This requires a big scoring night or assist surge. Given his poor history vs Portland (10 PPG, 1.25 APG) and low recent assist numbers, the under is favored.

timelineUNDER 17.5 PTS