AI Model:

Deni Avdija—

POR · SF

PPG

24.1

RPG

6.9

APG

6.8

L5 PPG

20.0

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-4.1

24.1

20.0

RPG-1.5

6.9

5.4

APG+0.6

6.8

7.4

SPG+0.2

0.8

1.0

BPG+0.5

0.7

1.2

UNDER 22.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

22.5

NYK

2026-01-30

2026-01-30 vs NYK: 11 pts

PHI

2026-02-09

2026-02-09 vs PHI: 26 pts

MIN

2026-02-11

2026-02-11 vs MIN: 11 pts

DEN

2026-02-20

2026-02-20 vs DEN: 15 pts

PHX

2026-02-22

2026-02-22 vs PHX: 0 pts

IND

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs IND: 18 pts

CHA

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs CHA: 22 pts

UTA

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs UTA: 17 pts

PHI

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs PHI: 25 pts

BKN

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs BKN: 18 pts

Over 22.5

Under 22.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 22.5FANDUEL

70%

AST

OVER 6.5FANDUEL

65%

REB

UNDER 6.5FANDUEL

60%

3PM

UNDER 1.5FANDUEL

75%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

70%

OVER 3.5

75%

PRA

UNDER 35.5FANDUEL

65%

P+A

OVER 29.5FANDUEL

60%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

24.4

19.2

RPG

6.4

6.7

APG

7.6

5.9

vs IND (H2H)15 games

PPG

10.1

RPG

5.1

APG

2.9

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
P.J. Washington	3	16	72%	+10.1%	medium
Cameron Johnson	4	16	59%	+9.0%	medium
Saddiq Bey	3	14	50%	-1.8%	medium
Jaden McDaniels	3	14	35%

Avdija's Away Woes vs. Pacers' Leaky Defense Set Stage for Mixed Prop Night

Deni Avdija faces a Pacers defense that ranks 30th in defensive rating (120.14), a favorable matchup for his scoring. However, his recent form shows a significant dip, averaging just 16.3 PPG over his last 10 games on reduced minutes (27.6 MPG). His historical performance against Indiana is also poor, averaging only 10.1 PPG in 15 career meetings. While the opponent's pace and defensive struggles are enticing, Avdija's recent trend and away splits (19.2 PPG) suggest a cautious approach.

Stat Trends

PPG

20.0(↓ from 24.1)

APG

7.4(↑ from 6.8)

RPG

5.4(↓ from 6.9)

Key Matchup

Avdija will see primary defense from Aaron Nesmith (8.2 matchup minutes, 13.0 pts allowed) and Pascal Siakam (5.7 minutes, 15.0 pts allowed). The Pacers' overall defense is the league's worst (120.14 rating), but his personal history against them is terrible.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Deni Avdija▼	Points	22.5	UNDER	70%HIGH	2/2	80%	32	✗
Deni Avdija▼	Assists	6.5	OVER	65%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	5	✗
Deni Avdija▼	Rebounds	6.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	1/2	80%	11	✗
Deni Avdija▼	3PM	1.5	UNDER	75%HIGH	2/2	70%	1	✓
Deni Avdija▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	70%HIGH	—	50%	1	✗
Deni Avdija▼	Turnovers	3.5	OVER	75%HIGH	—	60%	5	✓
Deni Avdija▼	PRA	35.5	UNDER	65%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	48	✗
Deni Avdija▼	P+A	29.5	OVER	60%MEDIUM	1/2	20%	37	✓

ML Scout Analysis

P+A28UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (8/20)OVER 3x9/1947%▼

PTS20UNDER14%gbt_pointsAvoid (7/20)OVER 3x9/1947%▼

AST7UNDER15%gbt_assistsAvoid (7/20)UNDER 2x7/1937%Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

3PM1UNDER34%gbt_three_pmAvoid (7/20)6/1932%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

3PA5UNDER48%gbtAvoid (7/20)OVER 2x8/1942%▼

FTM8UNDER23%gbtAvoid (7/20)OVER 3x9/1947%▼

FTA10UNDER8%gbtAvoid (7/20)OVER 3x9/1947%▼

PRA35UNDER39%gbt_praAvoid (7/20)OVER 3x9/1947%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

R+A13.5UNDER0%gbt_raAvoid (7/20)9/1947%▼

P+R27.5UNDER0%gbt_prAvoid (7/20)OVER 3x9/1947%▼

REB6UNDER14%gbt_reboundsAvoid (5/20)8/1942%▼

Featured Pick

Deni Avdija

Points UNDER 22.5HIGH

The combination of Avdija's severe career struggles vs. Indiana (10.1 PPG), his recent scoring slump (16.3 PPG last 10), and his significant drop in production on the road (19.2 PPG) all point strongly to the under. The Pacers' poor defense is the only counter, but his historical and recent trends are overwhelming.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Jarace Walker	2	6	5	33%	42%
Kobe Brown	2	3	0	0%	0%
Jalen Slawson	1	2	0	0%	0%
Ben Sheppard	2	2	0	0%	0%
Aaron Nesmith	2	2	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 22.570%HIGH

Avdija averages only 19.2 PPG on the road this season and a career-low 10.1 PPG vs. Indiana. His last 10-game average is 16.3 PPG, making the 22.5 line a tough ask despite the Pacers' poor defense.

assistsOVER 6.565%MEDIUM

He averages 7.4 APG over his last 5 and 6.8 APG for the season. The Pacers' fast pace (100) and poor defense should create ample playmaking opportunities.

reboundsUNDER 6.560%MEDIUM

His rebounding is down to 5.5 RPG over the last 10 games, and he's averaged just 5.1 RPG in his career vs. Indiana. The line is tight against his recent production.

threesUNDER 1.575%HIGH

He's made 1.0 or fewer threes in 7 of his last 10 games, averaging just 0.8 3PM over that span. The Pacers' three-point suppression is slightly negative (-0.397), but his recent volume is too low.

stocksOVER 1.570%HIGH

He averages 1.6 stocks over his last 10 games and 2.2 over his last 5. The Pacers' high-turnover environment and his recent defensive activity support the over.

turnoversOVER 3.575%HIGH

Avdija averages 4.0 TOPG over his last 5 and 3.6 over his last 10. His high usage and the Pacers' pace should lead to more ball-handling risks.

praUNDER 35.565%MEDIUM

This requires a combined 35.5 from points, rebounds, and assists. His recent 10-game averages sum to 28.2, and his away PRA average is approximately 31.8, making the over a reach.

paOVER 29.560%MEDIUM

Points + Assists at 29.5 is achievable. His season P+A average is 30.9, and even his lower recent form (22.7 P+A last 10) leaves room to clear this line with a decent assist night.

timelineUNDER 22.5 PTS