AI Model:

Pascal Siakam▼

IND · PF

PPG

24.0

RPG

6.7

APG

3.9

L5 PPG

27.4

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+3.4

24.0

27.4

RPG-0.7

6.7

6.0

APG-0.7

3.9

3.2

SPG+0.3

1.1

1.4

BPG-0.4

0.4

0.0

OVER 25.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

25.5

CHI

2026-01-28

2026-01-28 vs CHI: 20 pts

ATL

2026-01-31

2026-01-31 vs ATL: 25 pts

HOU

2026-02-02

2026-02-02 vs HOU: 27 pts

MIL

2026-02-06

2026-02-06 vs MIL: 19 pts

TOR

2026-02-08

2026-02-08 vs TOR: 18 pts

NYK

2026-02-10

2026-02-10 vs NYK: 30 pts

DAL

2026-02-22

2026-02-22 vs DAL: 30 pts

LAC

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs LAC: 29 pts

LAL

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs LAL: 26 pts

POR

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs POR: 22 pts

Over 25.5

Under 25.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

OVER 25.5STAKE

70%

REB

UNDER 7.5STAKE

65%

AST

UNDER 3.5STAKE

60%

3PM

UNDER 1.5

70%

STL

OVER 1.5STAKE

65%

BLK

UNDER 0.5STAKE

75%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

70%

PRA

OVER 34.5

65%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

23.2

25.2

RPG

6.2

7.0

APG

4.1

3.9

vs POR (H2H)11 games

PPG

23.2

RPG

6.6

APG

4.5

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Scottie Barnes	4	25	50%	+1.6%	medium
Paolo Banchero	3	19	41%	-7.5%	medium
Evan Mobley	3	18	29%	-19.8%	medium
Miles Bridges	2	16	63%

Siakam's Scoring Surge Meets Favorable Home Matchup

Pascal Siakam is in strong scoring form, averaging 27.4 PPG over his last five games, well above his 24.0 PPG season average. He faces a Portland defense that ranks 117.35 in defensive rating, a favorable matchup he just saw on March 8th, where he posted 22 points, 6 rebounds, and 5 assists. While his rebounds have dipped recently (5.3 RPG last 10), his scoring volume and efficiency against this opponent support a high-output projection. The Pacers are on a back-to-back, but Siakam's B2B splits show elevated scoring (26.4 PPG average).

Stat Trends

PPG

27.4(↑ from 24.0)

RPG

6.0(↓ from 6.7)

APG

3.2(↓ from 3.9)

SPG

1.4(↑ from 1.1)

Key Matchup

Siakam will primarily be defended by Jerami Grant, who has allowed 54 points on 41.7% shooting in 47.5 minutes of matchup time this season. The Blazers' overall poor defensive rating (117.35) creates a favorable scoring environment.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend
Pascal Siakam▼	Points	25.5	OVER	70%HIGH	1/2	50%
Pascal Siakam▼	Rebounds	7.5	UNDER	65%MEDIUM	2/2	90%
Pascal Siakam▼	Assists	3.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	50%
Pascal Siakam▼	3PM	1.5	UNDER	70%HIGH	2/2	70%
Pascal Siakam▼	Steals	1.5	OVER	65%MEDIUM	—	40%
Pascal Siakam▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	75%HIGH	—	80%
Pascal Siakam▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	70%HIGH	—	50%
Pascal Siakam▼	PRA	34.5	OVER	65%MEDIUM	1/2	40%

ML Scout Analysis

P+R30.5OVER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (13/20)11/2055%▼

P+A28OVER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (12/20)OVER 3x11/2055%▼

PTS25.5UNDER5%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (11/20)10/2050%▼

REB6UNDER29%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (9/20)6/2030%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

AST4UNDER25%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (9/20)7/2035%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

3PA4UNDER35%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 2x8/2040%Confidence moved HIGH to MEDIUM▼

FTA6.5UNDER17%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼

PRA34UNDER29%gbt_praWeak Leg (9/20)9/2045%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

R+A9.5UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 2x8/2040%▼

3PM1UNDER17%gbt_three_pmAvoid (7/20)9/2045%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Scorecard changed -3.0▼

FTM4UNDER22%gbtAvoid (7/20)UNDER 2x8/2040%▼

Featured Pick

Pascal Siakam

Points OVER 25.5HIGH

Siakam's recent scoring surge (27.4 PPG last 5), his elevated B2B average (26.4 PPG), and the matchup against a weak Portland defense all align. He just scored 22 against them eight days ago in a lower-minute outing, and with similar or greater opportunity tonight, he should exceed this line.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Jerami Grant	1	5	6	67%	100%
Toumani Camara	1	2	0	0%	0%
Kris Murray	1	1	0	0%	0%
Robert Williams III	1	1	4	67%	67%
Jrue Holiday	1	1	8	75%	100%

pointsOVER 25.570%HIGH

Siakam averages 27.4 PPG in his last 5 and 24.6 in his last 10, with a season-high B2B average of 26.4 PPG. The Blazers' weak defense (117.35 rating) and his recent 22-point outing against them support an over.

reboundsUNDER 7.565%MEDIUM

His rebounding has trended down to 5.3 RPG over the last 10 games and 6.0 in the last 5, below this line. His season average is 6.7, and he's cleared 7.5 boards in only 3 of his last 10 games.

assistsUNDER 3.560%MEDIUM

Siakam's assist average has dipped to 3.2 APG over the last 5 games. While his season mean is 3.87, his recent mean is 3.3 with low variance (1.49 std), making the under a slight lean.

threesUNDER 1.570%HIGH

He's averaged 1.2 threes over his last 10 games and hit exactly 0 or 1 three-pointer in 8 of his last 10 outings. His recent consistency is below this line.

stealsOVER 1.565%MEDIUM

Siakam has averaged 1.4 SPG over his last 5 games and has recorded 2+ steals in 3 of his last 5. His season average is 1.1, but the recent uptick and matchup favor the over.

blocksUNDER 0.575%HIGH

He has 0 blocks in his last 5 games and averages just 0.4 BPG for the season. This is a clear under trend with no recent production.

stocksOVER 1.570%HIGH

His combined steals and blocks average is 1.4 over the last 5 games. With steals trending up (1.4 SPG) and his season stocks mean at 1.53, he should clear this projected line.

praOVER 34.565%MEDIUM

Projected from recent averages (27.4 PPG, 6.0 RPG, 3.2 APG = 36.6). Even with rebounding down, his scoring surge should push the combined total over this line.

timelineOVER 25.5 PTS