AI Model:

Brandon Ingram▲

TOR · SG

PPG

21.9

RPG

5.6

APG

3.8

L5 PPG

22.4

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+0.5

21.9

22.4

RPG-0.8

5.6

4.8

APG-0.4

3.8

3.4

SPG+0.4

0.8

1.2

BPG-0.5

0.7

0.2

UNDER 23.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

23.5

OKC

2026-02-24

2026-02-24 vs OKC: 15 pts

SAS

2026-02-25

2026-02-25 vs SAS: 20 pts

WAS

2026-02-28

2026-02-28 vs WAS: 24 pts

NYK

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs NYK: 31 pts

MIN

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs MIN: 14 pts

DAL

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs DAL: 11 pts

HOU

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs HOU: 9 pts

NOP

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs NOP: 22 pts

PHX

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs PHX: 36 pts

DET

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs DET: 34 pts

Over 23.5

Under 23.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 23.5FANDUEL

62%

REB

UNDER 5.5FANDUEL

58%

AST

UNDER 4.5FANDUEL

64%

3PM

OVER 1.5FANDUEL

66%

STL

OVER 0.5FANDUEL

57%

BLK

OVER 0.5FANDUEL

55%

PRA

UNDER 33.5FANDUEL

63%

P+A

UNDER 27.5FANDUEL

61%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

23.1

21.2

RPG

5.1

4.8

APG

3.4

4.1

vs CHI (H2H)10 games

PPG

24.8

RPG

6.1

APG

5.2

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Noah Clowney	3	19	54%	-0.9%	medium
Gary Trent Jr.	4	17	45%	-17.1%	medium
Zaccharie Risacher	4	16	44%	-9.6%	medium
Tobias Harris	3	16	83%

Ingram’s scoring is steady, but the market is pricing a tougher path

Brandon Ingram is averaging 21.9 PPG, 5.6 RPG, and 3.8 APG on the season, and his recent form has stayed in range with 22.4 PPG over the last 5 and 21.6 PPG over the last 10. He also has strong history vs this opponent, posting 24.8 PPG, 6.1 RPG, and 5.2 APG in 10 games. The matchup environment is mixed: Chicago’s defense has a 120.09 defensive rating, but the game pace is 100, while Ingram’s away scoring sits at 21.2 PPG compared to 23.1 at home. With his recent scoring variance and several books hanging a 23.5 line, the points number looks a bit elevated relative to his season and away production.

Stat Trends

PPG

22.4(↑ from 21.9)

RPG

4.8(↓ from 5.6)

APG

3.4(↓ from 3.8)

Key Matchup

There is no specific defender matchup data beyond the listed key defenders, and the available defender minutes are extremely small. The opponent context is more about team defense: Chicago carries a 120.09 defensive rating with a 100 pace and 1.172 three suppression, which supports a slightly tougher scoring environment.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Brandon Ingram▼	Points	23.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	18	✓
Brandon Ingram▼	Rebounds	5.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	5	✓
Brandon Ingram▼	Assists	4.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	4	✓
Brandon Ingram▼	3PM	1.5	OVER	66%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	1	✗
Brandon Ingram▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	—	60%	0	✗
Brandon Ingram▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	—	30%	0	✗
Brandon Ingram▼	PRA	33.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	27	✓
Brandon Ingram▼	P+A	27.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	22	✓

ML Scout Analysis

PTS22.5UNDER5%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (14/20)UNDER 8x5/2025%+19.6% edgeConfidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

REB5.5UNDER11%gbt_reboundsDecent Leg (13/20)9/2045%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Value edge changed -0.034▼

PRA30.5UNDER29%gbt_praDecent Leg (13/20)UNDER 8x7/2035%+10.1% edge▼

P+R25UNDER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (13/20)UNDER 8x7/2035%▼

AST3.5UNDER26%gbt_assistsDecent Leg (12/20)OVER 2x12/2060%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM; Value edge shifted -0.270▼

R+A8.5OVER0%gbt_raDecent Leg (12/20)10/2050%▼

P+A23.5UNDER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 8x8/2040%▼

3PM1.5OVER2%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (11/20)9/2045%▼

Featured Pick

Brandon Ingram

Points UNDER 23.5HIGH

This is the cleanest edge because 23.5 is above his season scoring average of 21.9 and away average of 21.2. His recent form is solid but not enough to justify an over at this number, especially with a 100 pace matchup and a defensive environment that is not especially friendly.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Patrick Williams	2	7	4	67%	67%
Isaac Okoro	1	6	8	100%	117%
Leonard Miller	1	3	0	0%	0%
Matas Buzelis	2	3	5	50%	75%
Josh Giddey	2	2	2	33%	33%

pointsUNDER 23.562%MEDIUM

His season mean is 21.9 and away mean is 21.2, both below 23.5. The last 5 is 22.4, but the recent game log shows multiple outcomes below this mark, and his recent variance is high.

reboundsUNDER 5.558%MEDIUM

Ingram averages 5.6 rebounds on the season, but his away mean is 4.8 and last 5 is 4.8. That makes 5.5 a slightly inflated ask given the current split.

assistsUNDER 4.564%MEDIUM

He is at 3.8 APG for the season and 3.8 over the last 10, with 4.1 away but only 3.4 at home. The line is above both his season and most recent baseline.

threesOVER 1.566%MEDIUM

He averages 1.83 threes per game on the season and 1.8 over the last 10, so 1.5 is below his normal output. He also has 2.1 home threes per game and 1.65 away.

stealsOVER 0.557%MEDIUM

His season average is 0.8 steals and he is at 1.2 over the last 5. The line is low enough that a single steal clears it.

blocksOVER 0.555%MEDIUM

He averages 0.7 blocks per game on the season and 0.7 over the last 20. That gives him a reasonable path to clear 0.5.

praUNDER 33.563%MEDIUM

His season averages sum to 31.3 PRA (21.9 + 5.6 + 3.8), and his recent profile is similar at 31.1 over the last 10. The listed 33.5 line sits above both baselines.

paUNDER 27.561%MEDIUM

Points plus assists based on season averages is 25.7, and the last 10 is 25.4. A 27.5 line requires a stronger scoring-assist night than his recent baseline.

timelineUNDER 23.5 PTS