AI Model:

Jalen Smith▲

CHI · C

PPG

10.2

RPG

6.9

APG

1.3

L5 PPG

11.0

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+0.8

10.2

11.0

RPG-1.1

6.9

5.8

APG-0.5

1.3

0.8

SPG-0.2

0.4

0.2

BPG-0.4

0.8

0.4

UNDER 12.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

12.5

MIA

2026-01-29

2026-01-29 vs MIA: 11 pts

MIL

2026-02-03

2026-02-03 vs MIL: 16 pts

TOR

2026-02-05

2026-02-05 vs TOR: 13 pts

TOR

2026-02-19

2026-02-19 vs TOR: 9 pts

DET

2026-02-21

2026-02-21 vs DET: 15 pts

NYK

2026-02-22

2026-02-22 vs NYK: 12 pts

SAC

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs SAC: 4 pts

GSW

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs GSW: 12 pts

LAL

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs LAL: 14 pts

MEM

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs MEM: 13 pts

Over 12.5

Under 12.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 12.5DRAFTKINGS

64%

REB

UNDER 7.5DRAFTKINGS

60%

AST

UNDER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

68%

3PM

OVER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

56%

BLK

OVER 0.5

58%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

57%

P+R

UNDER 19.5DRAFTKINGS

62%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

11.4

12.5

RPG

7.6

8.2

APG

0.9

1.6

vs TOR (H2H)14 games

PPG

9.1

RPG

5.6

APG

1.0

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Karl-Anthony Towns	3	11	33%	-14.5%	medium
Nic Claxton	2	10	75%	+27.2%	low
Jabari Smith Jr.	2	9	63%	+2.2%	low
Danny Wolf	2	8	50%

Jalen Smith’s scoring and rebounding are trending up, but the market is still pricing in a modest night

Jalen Smith is in a clear usage uptick, with his last 10 games at 11.9 PPG, 6.5 RPG, and 1.0 APG versus season marks of 10.2, 6.9, and 1.3. He’s also averaging 23.7 MPG recently compared to 20.8 MPG on the season, which supports his current production level. The matchup is not especially inviting for scoring volume, as Toronto’s scoring suppression is -0.795 and its three suppression is -0.768. With the market at 12.5 points and 7.5 rebounds on the main books, the numbers suggest a fairly tight but slightly conservative projection rather than a breakout spot.

Stat Trends

PPG

11.0(↑ from 10.2)

RPG

5.8(↓ from 6.9)

APG

0.8(↓ from 1.3)

Key Matchup

Toronto’s opponent profile shows a 111.88 defensive rating, pace of 100, and negative scoring/three suppression, which points to a controlled scoring environment. There is no specific defender matchup data beyond the listed key defenders, so no specific defender matchup data.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Jalen Smith▼	Points	12.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	10	✓
Jalen Smith▼	Rebounds	7.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	4	✓
Jalen Smith▼	Assists	1.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	1	✓
Jalen Smith▼	3PM	1.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	2	✓
Jalen Smith▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	—	40%	0	✗
Jalen Smith▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	57%MEDIUM	—	80%	1	✓
Jalen Smith▼	P+R	19.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	14	✓

ML Scout Analysis

R+A9UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 4x8/1942%▼

P+R20OVER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (11/20)10/1953%▼

P+A13.5OVER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (11/20)10/1953%▼

Featured Pick

Jalen Smith

Points UNDER 12.5HIGH

This is the cleanest read because his season scoring average is 10.2, his recent 10-game average is 11.9, and his head-to-head average vs Toronto is 9.07 across 14 games. The market is asking for a step above his baseline, and Toronto’s scoring suppression supports taking the under.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Jakob Poeltl	2	5	4	50%	50%
Collin Murray-Boyles	1	5	2	50%	50%
Brandon Ingram	3	3	19	73%	77%
Scottie Barnes	2	3	8	60%	70%
RJ Barrett	2	1	3	100%	150%

pointsUNDER 12.564%MEDIUM

His season average is 10.2 PPG and his last 10 is 11.9, both still below 12.5. Toronto’s scoring suppression is -0.795, and his head-to-head average vs Toronto is 9.07 PPG across 14 games.

reboundsUNDER 7.560%MEDIUM

He averages 6.9 RPG on the season and 6.5 over the last 10, which stays below the 7.5 line. The matchup adds some resistance, and his historical average vs Toronto is 5.57 RPG in 14 games.

assistsUNDER 1.568%MEDIUM

Smith is at 1.3 APG for the season and 1.0 over the last 10, with recent games showing only 0.8 APG over the last 5. The assist line is modest, but his baseline production still leans below 1.5.

threesOVER 1.556%MEDIUM

He averages 1.51 made threes per game on the season and 1.5 over the last 5, so the 1.5 line is right in his range. He has also cleared volume with 1.7 fg3mpg over the last 20 and 1.9 away.

blocksOVER 0.558%MEDIUM

He averages 0.8 blocks per game on the season and 0.8 over the last 20, which supports at least one block chance. The recent 0.4 blocks over the last 5 is lower, but the season-level rate still favors an over lean.

stocksUNDER 1.557%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.24 and his last 10 is 1.1, both below 1.5. Since stocks are volatile and his recent 5-game stocks are only 0.6, the under is the safer side.

prUNDER 19.562%MEDIUM

His season points plus rebounds combine to 17.1, and his recent form still sits below this line when blended conservatively. The combo prop carries extra variance, and his recent rebound dip makes 19.5 a tough number to clear.

timelineUNDER 12.5 PTS