AI Model:

Josh Giddey—

CHI · PG

PPG

17.9

RPG

8.6

APG

9.0

L5 PPG

19.8

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+1.9

17.9

19.8

RPG+3.2

8.6

11.8

APG+4.0

9.0

13.0

SPG+0.6

1.0

1.6

BPG-0.2

0.4

0.2

OVER 17.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

17.5

NYK

2026-02-22

2026-02-22 vs NYK: 6 pts

CHA

2026-02-24

2026-02-24 vs CHA: 8 pts

POR

2026-02-26

2026-02-26 vs POR: 15 pts

MIL

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs MIL: 20 pts

OKC

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs OKC: 14 pts

SAC

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs SAC: 15 pts

GSW

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs GSW: 21 pts

LAL

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs LAL: 27 pts

LAC

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs LAC: 20 pts

MEM

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs MEM: 16 pts

Over 17.5

Under 17.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

OVER 17.5DRAFTKINGS

56%

REB

UNDER 8.5DRAFTKINGS

63%

AST

UNDER 9.5DRAFTKINGS

67%

3PM

OVER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

55%

STL

UNDER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

58%

BLK

OVER 0.5DRAFTKINGS

52%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

54%

OVER 3.5

60%

P+R

UNDER 26.5FANDUEL

62%

P+A

UNDER 27.5DRAFTKINGS

64%

R+A

UNDER 17.5FANDUEL

66%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

13.1

18.7

RPG

6.8

9.7

APG

7.7

12.3

vs TOR (H2H)11 games

PPG

14.1

RPG

6.5

APG

6.7

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Jaylon Tyson	4	15	64%	+19.7%	medium
Dyson Daniels	2	14	29%	-16.0%	low
OG Anunoby	4	14	77%	+16.9%	medium
Andrew Nembhard	3	13	46%

Giddey’s all-around form stays strong, but home splits keep the ceiling in check

Josh Giddey has been productive lately, with 19.8 PPG, 11.8 RPG, and 13.0 APG over his last 5, but his season baseline is still more modest at 17.9 PPG, 8.6 RPG, and 9.0 APG. The home split is the key concern: he averages just 13.1 PPG, 6.8 RPG, and 7.7 APG in 13 home games, well below his away production. Toronto’s profile is not especially friendly for upside either, with a 111.88 defensive rating and negative scoring and three-point suppression, so the better angle is to lean conservative on inflated combo numbers.

Stat Trends

PPG

19.8(↑ from 17.9)

RPG

11.8(↑ from 8.6)

APG

13.0(↑ from 9.0)

Key Matchup

Toronto carries a 111.88 defensive rating with negative scoring suppression and negative three-point suppression, which slightly dampens upside. There is no specific defender matchup data, so the read is based on team-level context rather than a named individual matchup.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Josh Giddey▼	Points	17.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	9	✗
Josh Giddey▼	Rebounds	8.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	0	✓
Josh Giddey▼	Assists	9.5	UNDER	67%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	3	✓
Josh Giddey▼	3PM	2.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	1	✗
Josh Giddey▼	Steals	1.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	1	✓
Josh Giddey▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	52%MEDIUM	—	30%	0	✗
Josh Giddey▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	—	70%	1	✗
Josh Giddey▼	Turnovers	3.5	OVER	60%MEDIUM	—	60%	3	✗
Josh Giddey▼	P+R	26.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	9	✓
Josh Giddey▼	P+A	27.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	12	✓
Josh Giddey▼	R+A	17.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	1/2	30%	3	✓

ML Scout Analysis

P+R22OVER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼

P+A24OVER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 2x11/2055%▼

R+A17.5OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x12/2060%▼

Featured Pick

Josh Giddey

Rebounds UNDER 8.5HIGH

This is the cleanest angle because his season average is 8.6 but his home average drops to 6.8 across 13 games. The market is asking for a number above his home baseline, and the recent hot stretch is less reliable than the larger home split sample.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
RJ Barrett	2	6	18	75%	88%
Ja'Kobe Walter	2	2	6	67%	100%
Scottie Barnes	2	2	6	100%	100%
Immanuel Quickley	2	2	0	0%	0%
Brandon Ingram	2	2	2	33%	33%

pointsOVER 17.556%MEDIUM

His season scoring average is 17.9, and he has cleared 17.5 in several recent games. That said, his home scoring is only 13.1 PPG, so this is a thin edge rather than a strong play.

reboundsUNDER 8.563%MEDIUM

He averages 8.6 rebounds for the season, but only 6.8 at home across 13 games. The line is set just above his season mean, and the home split makes the under more attractive.

assistsUNDER 9.567%MEDIUM

His season assist average is 9.0, while his home mean is 7.7. Even with strong recent form, the market is asking for 10 assists, which is a step above his baseline.

threesOVER 2.555%MEDIUM

He averages 2.04 made threes on the season and 2.8 over the last 5, so the volume supports a look over 2.5. Toronto’s three-point suppression is a mild drag, keeping confidence moderate.

stealsUNDER 1.558%MEDIUM

He averages 1.0 steals on the season and 1.1 over the last 20, which is below a 1.5 line. The recent spike to 1.6 over the last 5 is not enough to fully justify the over.

blocksOVER 0.552%MEDIUM

He averages 0.4 blocks on the season, but the recent game logs show multiple block events and enough defensive activity to keep this live. This remains a volatile prop, so confidence stays low.

stocksOVER 1.554%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.42 and his last 10 is 2.0, with recent defensive production trending up. Because the mean sits near the line, this is playable but not high confidence.

turnoversOVER 3.560%MEDIUM

He has averaged 3.6 turnovers over the last 5, 3.7 over the last 10, and 3.8 over the last 20. That consistency makes the over the cleaner side if the market posts in the mid-3s.

prUNDER 26.562%MEDIUM

His season points plus rebounds output is 26.5 using 17.9 PPG and 8.6 RPG, but home production is much lower at 13.1 and 6.8. The line is right on his combined season average, so the home drag points to the under.

paUNDER 27.564%MEDIUM

He averages 26.9 points plus assists on the season, below this 27.5 line. Even with recent passing surges, the season baseline does not support a confident over.

raUNDER 17.566%MEDIUM

His season rebounds plus assists average is 17.62, and his home split is only 14.5 combined. The line is above both his season and home baseline, making the under the stronger side.

timelineOVER 17.5 PTS