AI Model:

Matas Buzelis▼

CHI · SF

PPG

16.2

RPG

5.6

APG

2.1

L5 PPG

26.0

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+9.8

16.2

26.0

RPG+2.0

5.6

7.6

APG-0.1

2.1

2.0

SPG+0.1

0.7

0.8

BPG+0.5

1.5

2.0

UNDER 19.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

19.5

NYK

2026-02-22

2026-02-22 vs NYK: 15 pts

CHA

2026-02-24

2026-02-24 vs CHA: 32 pts

POR

2026-02-26

2026-02-26 vs POR: 20 pts

MIL

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs MIL: 20 pts

OKC

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs OKC: 11 pts

SAC

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs SAC: 20 pts

GSW

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs GSW: 41 pts

LAL

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs LAL: 22 pts

LAC

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs LAC: 18 pts

MEM

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs MEM: 29 pts

Over 19.5

Under 19.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 19.5FANDUEL

68%

REB

UNDER 6.5FANDUEL

61%

AST

UNDER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

72%

3PM

OVER 2.5FANDUEL

63%

BLK

OVER 1.5FANDUEL

66%

STL+BLK

UNDER 2.5

58%

P+R

UNDER 26.5FANDUEL

64%

P+A

UNDER 22.5DRAFTKINGS

70%

R+A

OVER 8.5DRAFTKINGS

59%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

18.3

19.7

RPG

6.6

6.2

APG

2.4

vs TOR (H2H)6 games

PPG

10.0

RPG

5.0

APG

1.3

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Mikal Bridges	4	16	60%	+6.7%	medium
AJ Green	4	13	50%	-13.3%	medium
Ausar Thompson	3	12	31%	-15.8%	medium
Brandon Ingram	3	11	58%

Buzelis is scoring well, but the market has caught up

Matas Buzelis is in strong recent form, averaging 26.0 PPG over his last 5 and 22.8 PPG over his last 10, well above his 16.2 season average. His minutes have also climbed to 35.2 in the last 5, but that scoring surge is a clear step above his longer sample and suggests some regression risk. At home, he’s at 18.3 PPG with 30.4 MPG, while his vs-opponent history is much quieter at 10.0 PPG in 6 games, which pushes the projection closer to his season baseline than his hot stretch. The matchup environment is neutral-to-slightly suppressive based on the opponent defense data, so the higher totals need efficient shooting to clear.

Stat Trends

PPG

26.0(↑ from 16.2)

RPG

7.6(↑ from 5.6)

APG

2.0(→ from 2.1)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data is available. The opponent defense numbers show a 111.88 defensive rating and a pace of 100, with three-point suppression at -0.768, which adds a mild headwind for efficiency-dependent overs.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Matas Buzelis▼	Points	19.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	2/2	30%	19	✓
Matas Buzelis▼	Rebounds	6.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	7	✗
Matas Buzelis▼	Assists	2.5	UNDER	72%HIGH	2/2	60%	1	✓
Matas Buzelis▼	3PM	2.5	OVER	63%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	3	✓
Matas Buzelis▼	Blocks	1.5	OVER	66%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	1	✗
Matas Buzelis▼	STL+BLK	2.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	—	50%	3	✗
Matas Buzelis▼	P+R	26.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	1/2	20%	26	✓
Matas Buzelis▼	P+A	22.5	UNDER	70%HIGH	1/2	30%	20	✓
Matas Buzelis▼	R+A	8.5	OVER	59%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	8	✗

ML Scout Analysis

P+A22OVER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (13/20)10/2050%▼

P+R27UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 3x7/2035%▼

R+A9UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (9/20)7/2035%▼

Featured Pick

Matas Buzelis

Points UNDER 19.5HIGH

The clearest anchor is the season average of 16.2 PPG versus a 19.5 line, plus a 10.0 PPG head-to-head average in 6 games. His last-5 run to 26.0 PPG is strong, but it is far above his season level and likely overstates the true baseline.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Brandon Ingram	3	11	16	50%	58%
RJ Barrett	2	5	4	29%	29%
Ja'Kobe Walter	2	3	3	100%	100%
Scottie Barnes	2	2	8	75%	75%
Sandro Mamukelashvili	2	1	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 19.568%MEDIUM

His season average is 16.2 PPG, and his vs-opponent mark is only 10.0 PPG across 6 games. The last-5 spike to 26.0 PPG is well above season form, so regression risk is high on a 19.5 line.

reboundsUNDER 6.561%MEDIUM

He averages 5.6 RPG on the season and 5.63 RPG at home, both below this number. Recent form is stronger at 6.8 RPG over the last 10, but the season baseline still leans under.

assistsUNDER 2.572%HIGH

His season mean is 2.08 APG and his recent mean is 2.2 APG, neither indicating frequent clears on 2.5. The lower-volume passing profile makes the under the cleaner side.

threesOVER 2.563%MEDIUM

He averages 2.24 made threes per game on the season and 3.5 over the last 5, with 3.0 FG3M in home splits. That still lands close enough to the line to keep confidence moderate.

blocksOVER 1.566%MEDIUM

He averages 1.5 BPG on the season and 1.8 over the last 20, with 2.0 BPG over the last 5. The variance is real, but the baseline volume supports a slight over lean.

stocksUNDER 2.558%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 2.18 and recent mean is 2.0, both just below a 2.5 threshold. Because combo-like volatility is high, the under is safer here.

prUNDER 26.564%MEDIUM

Season points plus rebounds is about 21.8 using the provided averages, which is below 26.5. The recent surge in scoring helps, but the combined line is still ambitious.

paUNDER 22.570%HIGH

His season points-plus-assists profile is roughly 18.3, well under 22.5. Even with elevated scoring lately, his assist production remains modest.

raOVER 8.559%MEDIUM

Season rebounds plus assists is about 7.7, but his last-10 rebounds and minutes are both up, giving this a chance to push higher. Still, it’s a lower-confidence over because the season baseline sits below the line.

timelineUNDER 19.5 PTS