AI Model:

Tre Jones▲

CHI · SG

PPG

12.9

RPG

2.9

APG

5.4

L5 PPG

18.0

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+5.1

12.9

18.0

RPG+0.1

2.9

3.0

APG-0.8

5.4

4.6

SPG-0.2

1.2

1.0

BPG0.0

0.2

UNDER 12.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

12.5

CHA

2026-02-24

2026-02-24 vs CHA: 3 pts

POR

2026-02-26

2026-02-26 vs POR: 19 pts

MIL

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs MIL: 13 pts

OKC

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs OKC: 15 pts

PHX

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs PHX: 21 pts

SAC

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs SAC: 12 pts

GSW

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs GSW: 22 pts

LAL

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs LAL: 18 pts

LAC

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs LAC: 21 pts

MEM

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs MEM: 17 pts

Over 12.5

Under 12.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 12.5DRAFTKINGS

61%

REB

OVER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

56%

AST

OVER 4.5DRAFTKINGS

58%

3PM

UNDER 0.5BETONLINEAG

63%

STL

UNDER 1

57%

BLK

UNDER 0.5

70%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

55%

UNDER 2

59%

P+A

UNDER 18.5DRAFTKINGS

55%

P+R

OVER 15.5DRAFTKINGS

57%

PRA

UNDER 20.5DRAFTKINGS

54%

R+A

UNDER 7.5DRAFTKINGS

60%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

11.6

18.1

RPG

2.5

3.8

APG

5.5

5.9

vs TOR (H2H)7 games

PPG

7.3

RPG

3.1

APG

5.6

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Jalen Brunson	4	17	47%	-13.1%	medium
Daniss Jenkins	3	15	60%	+4.8%	medium
Trae Young	3	12	54%	-12.3%	medium
Ryan Rollins	3	11	70%

Tre Jones’ recent scoring surge faces a tougher home-to-road projection test

Tre Jones is trending up overall, with his last 5 games at 18.0 PPG compared to 12.9 for the season, but that run comes with a larger scoring role and more minutes at 31.0 MPG. The market has adjusted with points lines mostly at 12.5, while his season home split is only 11.6 PPG and his vs-opponent scoring history is just 7.29 PPG across 7 games. Assists remain his steadiest category at 5.4 per game season-long, but his recent 4.1 APG and the 5.5 line at FanDuel create a tighter decision than the scoring spike suggests.

Stat Trends

PPG

18.0(↑ from 12.9)

APG

4.6(↓ from 5.4)

RPG

3.0(→ from 2.9)

Key Matchup

Toronto has a 111.88 defensive rating and a pace of 100, with negative scoring suppression (-0.795) and three-point suppression (-0.768). He also has no specific defender matchup data, so the main read is the team-level environment rather than an individual on-ball stopper.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Tre Jones▼	Points	12.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	1/2	20%	6	✓
Tre Jones▼	Rebounds	2.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	2	✗
Tre Jones▼	Assists	4.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	5	✓
Tre Jones▼	3PM	0.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	—	50%	0	✓
Tre Jones▼	Steals	1	UNDER	57%MEDIUM	2/2	80%	2	✗
Tre Jones▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	70%HIGH	—	80%	0	✓
Tre Jones▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	55%MEDIUM	—	80%	2	✗
Tre Jones▼	Turnovers	2	UNDER	59%MEDIUM	—	80%	3	✗
Tre Jones▼	P+A	18.5	UNDER	55%MEDIUM	2/2	30%	11	✓
Tre Jones▼	P+R	15.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	1/2	80%	8	✗
Tre Jones▼	PRA	20.5	UNDER	54%MEDIUM	2/2	30%	13	✓
Tre Jones▼	R+A	7.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	7	✓

ML Scout Analysis

AST6.5UNDER28%gbt_assistsDecent Leg (12/20)3/2015%+36.0% edgeConfidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

PRA30.5UNDER14%gbt_praDecent Leg (12/20)5/2025%+20.4% edge▼

P+R20.5OVER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (12/20)11/2055%▼

P+A21.5OVER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (12/20)12/2060%▼

R+A8.5OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 2x11/2055%▼

PTS18.5OVER6%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (10/20)9/2045%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Value edge shifted -0.140; Scorecard changed -3.0▼

REB4.5UNDER53%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 4x5/2025%+11.5% edgeConfidence moved MEDIUM to HIGH▼

Featured Pick

Tre Jones

Points UNDER 12.5MEDIUM

The season-long 12.9 PPG is only slightly above the line, but his home split is 11.6 PPG and his vs-opponent scoring history is just 7.29 PPG across 7 games. The recent 18.0 PPG run is strong, yet it sits well above baseline and is the most likely area to cool off.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Jamal Shead	2	6	4	50%	50%
Immanuel Quickley	2	5	3	33%	50%
Ja'Kobe Walter	2	2	0	0%	0%
Scottie Barnes	2	1	0	0%	0%
Brandon Ingram	2	1	6	75%	75%

pointsUNDER 12.561%MEDIUM

His season mean is 12.92 PPG, but the home split is only 11.6 PPG and his head-to-head mark vs this opponent is 7.29 PPG in 7 games. The recent 18.0 PPG is a hot stretch, but it sits well above season baseline and is a candidate for regression.

reboundsOVER 2.556%MEDIUM

He averages 2.9 rebounds on the season and 3.1 over the last 10, with 3.0 over the last 5. The 2.5 line is below both his season and recent form.

assistsOVER 4.558%MEDIUM

Tre averages 5.42 APG for the season and 5.57 at home, which is above the 4.5 line. Even with a recent dip to 4.1 APG over the last 10, the season baseline still supports an over lean.

threesUNDER 0.563%MEDIUM

He averages only 0.58 threes per game on the season and 0.8 over the last 10, but his home mean is just 0.5 and his B2B mean is 0.13. With the line sitting at 0.5, this is a thin over unless he gets unusual volume.

stealsUNDER 157%MEDIUM

He averages 1.2 steals per game season-long and 1.0 over the last 5, so the raw production is there. But the recent 0.8 over the last 10 and modest variance make this a volatile spot.

blocksUNDER 0.570%HIGH

His season average is only 0.2 blocks per game, and he has 0.2 over the last 5 and last 10. The volume profile does not support an over at a 0.5 line.

stocksUNDER 1.555%MEDIUM

He averages 1.4 stocks per game on the season and 1.0 over the last 10. Because this is a combo stat with meaningful variance, the under is safer at a 1.5 line.

turnoversUNDER 259%MEDIUM

His recent turnover rate is only 1.4 per game over both the last 5 and last 10, and his season mark is 1.3. A 2.0 line would be above his typical baseline.

paUNDER 18.555%MEDIUM

His season points plus assists profile is 18.34 by the provided means, which sits just under the 18.5 line. The recent scoring spike helps, but the assist dip keeps this from being a strong over.

prOVER 15.557%MEDIUM

Using the season means, points plus rebounds project to 15.82, slightly above the 15.5 line. His recent scoring and steady rebounding both keep this playable.

praUNDER 20.554%MEDIUM

His season points, rebounds, and assists average to about 21.22 combined, but that comes with a lower home scoring split and a strong recent scoring streak that may regress. With combo props carrying more variance, the under is the safer lean.

raUNDER 7.560%MEDIUM

He averages 8.3 rebounds plus assists by season means, but his recent assists are down and his rebounds are only 2.9. The 7.5 line is close enough that the under is the more conservative side given combo volatility.

timelineUNDER 12.5 PTS