AI Model:

Ace Bailey▼

UTA · PF

PPG

12.2

RPG

3.9

APG

1.7

L5 PPG

16.4

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+4.2

12.2

16.4

RPG-0.9

3.9

3.0

APG+0.1

1.7

1.8

SPG+0.5

0.9

1.4

BPG-0.1

0.5

0.4

UNDER 16.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

16.5

MEM

2026-02-20

2026-02-20 vs MEM: 20 pts

HOU

2026-02-23

2026-02-23 vs HOU: 4 pts

NOP

2026-02-26

2026-02-26 vs NOP: 23 pts

NOP

2026-02-28

2026-02-28 vs NOP: 13 pts

DEN

2026-03-02

2026-03-02 vs DEN: 18 pts

PHI

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs PHI: 12 pts

WAS

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs WAS: 32 pts

MIL

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs MIL: 9 pts

NYK

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs NYK: 21 pts

POR

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs POR: 8 pts

Over 16.5

Under 16.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 16.5DRAFTKINGS

67%

REB

UNDER 4.5DRAFTKINGS

64%

AST

UNDER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

72%

3PM

UNDER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

63%

STL

OVER 0.5DRAFTKINGS

71%

BLK

UNDER 0.5

58%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

60%

OVER 1.5

61%

P+R

UNDER 21.5DRAFTKINGS

68%

P+A

UNDER 18.5DRAFTKINGS

66%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

17.1

14.0

RPG

4.7

5.2

APG

1.8

1.7

vs MIN (H2H)3 games

PPG

14.0

RPG

6.0

APG

2.0

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Jabari Smith Jr.	4	13	67%	+11.7%	medium
Moses Moody	2	12	69%	+9.9%	low
Rui Hachimura	3	11	56%	+0.5%	medium
Jaden McDaniels	4	10	108%

Bailey’s scoring surge meets a tough cap in Minnesota

Ace Bailey has been more productive lately, with 16.4 PPG over his last 5 and 16.0 over his last 10 versus a 12.2 season average, but that comes with elevated variance and a current questionable tag. His season baseline is still modest across the board, and his recent 5-game scoring is running well above the full-season mean, which raises regression risk. Minnesota’s opponent profile shows a 114.93 defensive rating and 0.092 scoring suppression, and Bailey’s historical line against this opponent is 14 PPG, 6 RPG, and 2 APG across 3 games. The best fantasy support comes from his three-point volume and stocks, but the points market is priced above his season level.

Stat Trends

PPG

16.4(↑ from 12.2)

RPG

3.0(↓ from 3.9)

APG

1.8(→ from 1.7)

Stocks

1.8(↑ from 1.4)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data is provided beyond the listed key defenders, so the main matchup note is Minnesota’s 114.93 defensive rating and 0.092 scoring suppression, which is a modestly tougher scoring environment. Bailey has faced this opponent 3 times and averaged 14 PPG, 6 RPG, and 2 APG.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Ace Bailey▼	Points	16.5	UNDER	67%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	17	✗
Ace Bailey▼	Rebounds	4.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	2	✓
Ace Bailey▼	Assists	2.5	UNDER	72%HIGH	2/2	70%	2	✓
Ace Bailey▼	3PM	2.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	5	✗
Ace Bailey▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	71%HIGH	1/2	90%	0	✗
Ace Bailey▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	—	50%	1	✗
Ace Bailey▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	60%MEDIUM	—	60%	1	✗
Ace Bailey▼	Turnovers	1.5	OVER	61%MEDIUM	—	40%	3	✓
Ace Bailey▼	P+R	21.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	19	✓
Ace Bailey▼	P+A	18.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	19	✗

ML Scout Analysis

PTS17.5OVER8%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (13/20)9/1947%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Value edge changed -0.053; Scorecard changed +4.0▼

3PM2.5OVER2%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 3x8/1942%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Value edge shifted -0.158; Scorecard changed +3.0▼

PRA25.5UNDER19%gbt_praWeak Leg (11/20)8/1942%+6.4% edge▼

REB4.5UNDER2%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (10/20)10/1953%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Value edge shifted +0.081; Scorecard changed -3.0▼

AST2.5UNDER8%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 3x7/1937%+9.9% edgeConfidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

BLK0.5UNDER7%gbt_blocksWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 2x11/1958%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Value edge changed +0.072▼

P+R23.5UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (10/20)7/1937%▼

P+A20.5UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (10/20)8/1942%▼

R+A7UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 4x9/1947%▼

Featured Pick

Ace Bailey

Points UNDER 16.5MEDIUM

This line is above Bailey’s season scoring average of 12.2 and also above his 14 PPG average in 3 games against Minnesota. His recent 16.4 PPG surge is strong, but it sits well above his season baseline and carries regression risk, especially with questionable injury status.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Jaden McDaniels	4	10	15	83%	108%
Julius Randle	4	6	11	50%	55%
Donte DiVincenzo	4	5	8	75%	100%
Naz Reid	3	4	6	100%	150%
Anthony Edwards	3	4	22	58%	75%

pointsUNDER 16.567%MEDIUM

His season mean is 12.2 PPG, while the line is 16.5 and recent scoring has been above baseline at 16.4 over the last 5. With that recent spike, regression risk is real, and his questionable status adds uncertainty.

reboundsUNDER 4.564%MEDIUM

Bailey averages 3.9 RPG for the season and 3.0 over the last 5, both below 4.5. His head-to-head average versus Minnesota is 6 RPG, but the season and recent trend point lower overall.

assistsUNDER 2.572%HIGH

He averages 1.7 APG on the season and 1.8 over the last 5, so 2.5 is above his normal production. The assist profile is low-volume and volatile, with a season std of 1.28.

threesUNDER 2.563%MEDIUM

He averages 1.67 threes per game on the season and 2.6 over the last 5, which is a clear hot stretch but above his baseline. The line at 2.5 asks for a strong shooting night, and his three-point std is 1.49.

stealsOVER 0.571%HIGH

Bailey averages 0.9 steals per game this season and 1.2 over the last 10, so 0.5 is a favorable number. His recent defensive activity supports at least one steal.

blocksUNDER 0.558%MEDIUM

He averages exactly 0.5 blocks per game on the season, making this a thin edge either way. With a modest recent 0.4 over the last 5 and only 0.7 over the last 10, the under is slightly safer.

stocksOVER 1.560%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.4, but that rises to 1.9 over the last 10 and 1.8 over the last 5. The line is close enough to his recent form to justify a cautious over.

turnoversOVER 1.561%MEDIUM

He has 1.8 turnovers per game over the last 5 and 1.5 over the last 10, with a 2.0-turnover threshold being the meaningful volume marker. The recent usage suggests this is live if he plays normal minutes.

prUNDER 21.568%MEDIUM

His season points plus rebounds output is built on 12.2 PPG and 3.9 RPG, which does not naturally support 21.5. Recent scoring has been elevated, but rebounds have not kept pace, limiting combo upside.

paUNDER 18.566%MEDIUM

Bailey’s 12.2 PPG and 1.7 APG season averages leave this combo reliant on an above-average scoring night plus decent passing. He has only 1.8 APG over the last 5, so the assist side remains a drag.

timelineUNDER 16.5 PTS