AI Model:

Brice Sensabaugh▲

UTA · SF

PPG

13.9

RPG

3.0

APG

1.7

L5 PPG

24.0

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+10.1

13.9

24.0

RPG+0.6

3.0

3.6

APG+0.5

1.7

2.2

SPG+0.5

0.7

1.2

BPG+0.5

0.1

0.6

UNDER 22.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

22.5

NOP

2026-02-26

2026-02-26 vs NOP: 20 pts

NOP

2026-02-28

2026-02-28 vs NOP: 10 pts

DEN

2026-03-02

2026-03-02 vs DEN: 8 pts

PHI

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs PHI: 7 pts

WAS

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs WAS: 14 pts

MIL

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs MIL: 17 pts

GSW

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs GSW: 21 pts

NYK

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs NYK: 29 pts

POR

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs POR: 31 pts

SAC

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs SAC: 22 pts

Over 22.5

Under 22.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 22.5DRAFTKINGS

67%

REB

UNDER 3.5DRAFTKINGS

59%

AST

UNDER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

63%

3PM

OVER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

56%

STL

OVER 0.5DRAFTKINGS

58%

P+R

UNDER 26.5DRAFTKINGS

60%

P+A

UNDER 24.5DRAFTKINGS

62%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

19.1

15.5

RPG

3.5

2.9

APG

1.6

2.0

vs MIN (H2H)8 games

PPG

9.3

RPG

3.5

APG

2.0

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Naji Marshall	4	10	100%	+39.1%	medium
Jabari Smith Jr.	4	8	80%	+13.4%	medium
Christian Braun	3	7	60%	+13.4%	medium
Kris Dunn	3	7	0%

Sensabaugh’s usage is hot, but Minnesota and his season baseline argue for caution

Brice Sensabaugh has been in strong recent form, with 24.0 PPG over his last 5 and 17.9 PPG over his last 10 versus a 13.9 season average. He’s also seeing more minutes lately at 26.0 MPG in the last 5, but that scoring spike is well above his season level and usually invites regression. The matchup data is not especially friendly either, with Utah’s offense facing a Minnesota team that allows a 0.092 scoring suppression and has a 114.93 defensive rating, while Sensabaugh has averaged just 9.25 PPG across 8 games vs this opponent. Because his volume props carry noticeable variance and his recent surge outpaces his season profile, the safest angles lean slightly away from the inflated scoring number.

Stat Trends

PPG

24.0(↑ from 13.9)

RPG

3.6(→ from 3.0)

APG

2.2(↑ from 1.7)

3PM

4.0(↑ from 2.1)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data is available. Minnesota’s defense context is still relevant, with a 114.93 defensive rating, pace of 100, and a 0.092 scoring suppression that makes a scoring over less attractive.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Brice Sensabaugh▼	Points	22.5	UNDER	67%MEDIUM	2/2	80%	41	✗
Brice Sensabaugh▼	Rebounds	3.5	UNDER	59%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	4	✗
Brice Sensabaugh▼	Assists	2.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	3	✗
Brice Sensabaugh▼	3PM	2.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	4	✓
Brice Sensabaugh▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	—	80%	1	✓
Brice Sensabaugh▼	P+R	26.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	1/2	80%	45	✗
Brice Sensabaugh▼	P+A	24.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	2/2	80%	44	✗

ML Scout Analysis

PTS23.5UNDER18%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (12/20)8/2040%+9.0% edge▼

PRA32.5UNDER31%gbt_praWeak Leg (11/20)5/2025%+21.5% edgeConfidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

REB4.5UNDER43%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 2x4/2020%+27.0% edgeConfidence moved LOW to HIGH▼

AST3.5UNDER12%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 4x7/2035%+8.5% edgePrediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Value edge shifted +0.230▼

3PM3.5UNDER14%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (10/20)6/2030%+11.3% edge▼

P+R24.5UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (10/20)9/2045%▼

P+A24UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 3x9/2045%▼

R+A6.5UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 4x9/2045%▼

Featured Pick

Brice Sensabaugh

Points UNDER 22.5HIGH

This line is well above his 13.9 season scoring average and also above his 17.9 last-10 mark. His 8-game history vs Minnesota is only 9.25 PPG, so even with recent hot form, the broader data points more strongly to an under than an over.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Jaylen Clark	3	5	5	100%	125%
Jaden McDaniels	2	4	4	33%	33%
Donte DiVincenzo	3	3	3	50%	75%
Julius Randle	3	3	5	100%	125%
Naz Reid	2	2	3	50%	75%

pointsUNDER 22.567%MEDIUM

His 13.9 season scoring average is far below 22.5, and his 9.25 PPG across 8 games vs Minnesota is even lower. The last-5 surge to 24.0 PPG is strong, but it is a classic regression spot relative to his broader season baseline.

reboundsUNDER 3.559%MEDIUM

He averages 3.0 RPG on the season and 3.1 RPG over the last 10, which sits just under the 3.5 line. Recent minutes are solid, but the rebound profile is still modest and not enough to make this a strong over.

assistsUNDER 2.563%MEDIUM

Sensabaugh’s season assist average is 1.7, and even his recent 2.2 APG is below 2.5. The standard deviation is 1.26, so there is some swing here, but the median expectation remains under the line.

threesOVER 2.556%MEDIUM

He averages 2.06 made threes on the season and 2.9 over the last 10, with 4.0 in the last 5. The line is reachable if volume stays around his recent 2.9 to 4.0 attempts-made profile, but the confidence stays moderate because of variance.

stealsOVER 0.558%MEDIUM

He averages 0.7 steals for the season and 1.0 over the last 10, which supports clearing 0.5. This is a lower-variance way to lean into his recent all-around uptick.

prUNDER 26.560%MEDIUM

His season points-plus-rebounds sits near 16.9, and even the recent spike in scoring does not fully offset the modest rebound base. With a 26.5 line, the projection still needs an outlier scoring game to get over.

paUNDER 24.562%MEDIUM

He averages 15.6 combined points and assists on the season and 20.1 over the last 5, both below 24.5. The recent run is hot, but this combo is still stretched beyond his typical output.

timelineUNDER 22.5 PTS