Last 10 games
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Harden | 3 | 11 | 69% | +15.2% | medium |
| Jamal Murray | 3 | 10 | 78% | +8.3% | medium |
| Stephon Castle | 3 | 8 | 45% | -7.3% | medium |
| Kevin Durant | 2 | 8 | 50% |
Cody Williams’ season line is modest at 6.9 points, 2.7 rebounds, and 1.4 assists in 22 MPG, but his recent role has exploded to 17.6 points, 6.0 rebounds, and 4.8 assists over the last 5 games with 38.4 MPG. That surge is real enough to keep him on the radar, but it also comes with heavy regression risk since those last-5 numbers are well above his season baseline. Against Minnesota, his prior history is quieter at 6.0 points and 1.25 rebounds in 4 games, and the opponent profile shows some scoring suppression. The safest angle is to lean into the market’s higher lines rather than chase the recent hot stretch.
No specific defender matchup data is provided. Minnesota’s opponent profile shows a 114.93 defensive rating, pace of 100, and scoring suppression of -0.092, which makes it harder to justify chasing inflated overs.
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cody Williams▼ | Points | 12.5 | UNDER | 68%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 60% | 7 | ✓ |
Cody Williams▼ | Rebounds | 4.5 | UNDER | 64%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 60% | 5 | ✗ |
Cody Williams▼ | Assists | 2.5 | UNDER | 61%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 40% | 2 | ✓ |
Cody Williams▼ | 3PM | 0.5 | OVER | 54%MEDIUM | — | 50% | 1 | ✓ |
Cody Williams▼ | Steals | 0.5 | OVER | 56%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 60% | 1 | ✓ |
Cody Williams▼ | Blocks | 0.5 | OVER | 52%MEDIUM | — | 50% | 0 | ✗ |
Cody Williams▼ | STL+BLK | 1.5 | UNDER | 57%MEDIUM | — | 70% | 1 | ✓ |
Cody Williams▼ | Turnovers | 2 | OVER | 55%MEDIUM | — | 30% | 0 | ✗ |
Cody Williams▼ | P+A | 15.5 | UNDER | 66%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 60% | 9 | ✓ |
Cody Williams▼ | P+R | 17.5 | UNDER | 67%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 70% | 12 | ✓ |
This is the cleanest number relative to his season 6.9 PPG and his 6.0 PPG in 4 games vs this opponent. The last-5 explosion to 17.6 is meaningful, but it is also exactly the kind of stretch that tends to regress when the line jumps into double digits.
| low |
| Ousmane Dieng | 4 | 7 | 83% | +19.4% | medium |
| Defender | Games | Min | PTS | FG% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Edwards | 1 | 6 | 14 | 56% | 67% |
| Julius Randle | 2 | 4 | 5 | 40% | 40% |
| Donte DiVincenzo | 2 | 3 | 3 | 33% | 50% |
| Jaden McDaniels | 3 | 2 | 9 | 100% | 117% |
| Ayo Dosunmu | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
His season mean is 6.91 points and his vs-opponent average is 6.0 points across 4 games. The last-5 burst to 17.6 is far above his season level, so regression is a bigger factor than momentum.
He averages 2.72 rebounds for the season and 1.25 rebounds in 4 games vs this opponent. Recent 6.0 rebounds over the last 5 is a strong spike, but it is well above his baseline.
His season assist average is 1.43 and his head-to-head mark is only 0.75 assists in 4 games. Even with a 4.8 assist last-5 run, the season baseline still points lower.
He averages 0.42 threes per game for the season, but he has hit 0.7 over the last 10 and 1.0 over the last 5. The volume is still limited, so confidence stays modest.
He averages 0.7 steals per game on the season and 0.8 over the last 5. That makes a 0.5 steals line reachable even without a big scoring night.
He averages 0.5 blocks per game on the season and 0.6 over the last 5. This is right on the threshold, so the edge is small.
His season stocks average is 1.11 and his recent 1.3 is still below 1.5. Because stocks are volatile and his season standard deviation is not tiny, the under is the cleaner side.
He is at 1.7 turnovers over the last 10 and 2.8 over the last 5, with heavy recent minutes driving more on-ball chances. The line is not provided, so this is a projected lean from his recent usage.
His season points-plus-assists profile is 8.34 combined from season means, and his head-to-head production is 6.75 combined per game. The recent spike is strong, but this combo prop is a high-variance area and the market number is aggressive.
Season means for points and rebounds total 9.63, while his vs-opponent points-plus-rebounds is just 7.25. Recent form is hot, but this line still sits well above his base production.