AI Model:

Cody Williams▲

UTA · SG

PPG

6.9

RPG

2.7

APG

1.4

L5 PPG

17.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+10.7

6.9

17.6

RPG+3.3

2.7

6.0

APG+3.4

1.4

4.8

SPG+0.1

0.7

0.8

BPG+0.1

0.5

0.6

UNDER 12.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

12.5

NOP

2026-02-26

2026-02-26 vs NOP: 6 pts

NOP

2026-02-28

2026-02-28 vs NOP: 4 pts

DEN

2026-03-02

2026-03-02 vs DEN: 3 pts

PHI

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs PHI: 9 pts

WAS

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs WAS: 13 pts

MIL

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs MIL: 13 pts

GSW

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs GSW: 12 pts

NYK

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs NYK: 10 pts

POR

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs POR: 19 pts

SAC

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs SAC: 34 pts

Over 12.5

Under 12.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 12.5DRAFTKINGS

68%

REB

UNDER 4.5DRAFTKINGS

64%

AST

UNDER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

61%

3PM

OVER 0.5

54%

STL

OVER 0.5

56%

BLK

OVER 0.5

52%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

57%

OVER 2

55%

P+A

UNDER 15.5DRAFTKINGS

66%

P+R

UNDER 17.5DRAFTKINGS

67%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

7.4

10.5

RPG

2.5

4.8

APG

2.8

2.4

vs MIN (H2H)4 games

PPG

6.0

RPG

1.3

APG

0.8

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
James Harden	3	11	69%	+15.2%	medium
Jamal Murray	3	10	78%	+8.3%	medium
Stephon Castle	3	8	45%	-7.3%	medium
Kevin Durant	2	8	50%

Cody Williams riding a usage spike, but the market is asking for a lot

Cody Williams’ season line is modest at 6.9 points, 2.7 rebounds, and 1.4 assists in 22 MPG, but his recent role has exploded to 17.6 points, 6.0 rebounds, and 4.8 assists over the last 5 games with 38.4 MPG. That surge is real enough to keep him on the radar, but it also comes with heavy regression risk since those last-5 numbers are well above his season baseline. Against Minnesota, his prior history is quieter at 6.0 points and 1.25 rebounds in 4 games, and the opponent profile shows some scoring suppression. The safest angle is to lean into the market’s higher lines rather than chase the recent hot stretch.

Stat Trends

PPG

17.6(↑ from 6.9)

RPG

6.0(↑ from 2.7)

APG

4.8(↑ from 1.4)

STL+BLK

1.4(→ from 1.2)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data is provided. Minnesota’s opponent profile shows a 114.93 defensive rating, pace of 100, and scoring suppression of -0.092, which makes it harder to justify chasing inflated overs.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Cody Williams▼	Points	12.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	7	✓
Cody Williams▼	Rebounds	4.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	5	✗
Cody Williams▼	Assists	2.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	2	✓
Cody Williams▼	3PM	0.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	—	50%	1	✓
Cody Williams▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	1	✓
Cody Williams▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	52%MEDIUM	—	50%	0	✗
Cody Williams▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	57%MEDIUM	—	70%	1	✓
Cody Williams▼	Turnovers	2	OVER	55%MEDIUM	—	30%	0	✗
Cody Williams▼	P+A	15.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	9	✓
Cody Williams▼	P+R	17.5	UNDER	67%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	12	✓

ML Scout Analysis

PTS16.5UNDER18%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (13/20)7/2035%+12.8% edge▼

AST3.5OVER30%gbt_assistsDecent Leg (12/20)OVER 4x10/2050%▼

PRA26.5UNDER9%gbt_praDecent Leg (12/20)7/2035%+10.9% edge▼

R+A8OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 4x10/2050%▼

P+R18.5UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (11/20)8/2040%▼

P+A18.5UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (11/20)9/2045%▼

REB4.5OVER14%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (9/20)7/2035%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Value edge shifted -0.459; Scorecard changed -3.0▼

Featured Pick

Cody Williams

Points UNDER 12.5HIGH

This is the cleanest number relative to his season 6.9 PPG and his 6.0 PPG in 4 games vs this opponent. The last-5 explosion to 17.6 is meaningful, but it is also exactly the kind of stretch that tends to regress when the line jumps into double digits.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Anthony Edwards	1	6	14	56%	67%
Julius Randle	2	4	5	40%	40%
Donte DiVincenzo	2	3	3	33%	50%
Jaden McDaniels	3	2	9	100%	117%
Ayo Dosunmu	1	2	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 12.568%MEDIUM

His season mean is 6.91 points and his vs-opponent average is 6.0 points across 4 games. The last-5 burst to 17.6 is far above his season level, so regression is a bigger factor than momentum.

reboundsUNDER 4.564%MEDIUM

He averages 2.72 rebounds for the season and 1.25 rebounds in 4 games vs this opponent. Recent 6.0 rebounds over the last 5 is a strong spike, but it is well above his baseline.

assistsUNDER 2.561%MEDIUM

His season assist average is 1.43 and his head-to-head mark is only 0.75 assists in 4 games. Even with a 4.8 assist last-5 run, the season baseline still points lower.

threesOVER 0.554%MEDIUM

He averages 0.42 threes per game for the season, but he has hit 0.7 over the last 10 and 1.0 over the last 5. The volume is still limited, so confidence stays modest.

stealsOVER 0.556%MEDIUM

He averages 0.7 steals per game on the season and 0.8 over the last 5. That makes a 0.5 steals line reachable even without a big scoring night.

blocksOVER 0.552%MEDIUM

He averages 0.5 blocks per game on the season and 0.6 over the last 5. This is right on the threshold, so the edge is small.

stocksUNDER 1.557%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.11 and his recent 1.3 is still below 1.5. Because stocks are volatile and his season standard deviation is not tiny, the under is the cleaner side.

turnoversOVER 255%MEDIUM

He is at 1.7 turnovers over the last 10 and 2.8 over the last 5, with heavy recent minutes driving more on-ball chances. The line is not provided, so this is a projected lean from his recent usage.

paUNDER 15.566%MEDIUM

His season points-plus-assists profile is 8.34 combined from season means, and his head-to-head production is 6.75 combined per game. The recent spike is strong, but this combo prop is a high-variance area and the market number is aggressive.

prUNDER 17.567%MEDIUM

Season means for points and rebounds total 9.63, while his vs-opponent points-plus-rebounds is just 7.25. Recent form is hot, but this line still sits well above his base production.

timelineUNDER 12.5 PTS

Defensive Matchup Profile

Cody Williams riding a usage spike, but the market is asking for a lot

Stat Trends

Key Matchup

Prop Analysis

ML Scout Analysis

Featured Pick

UNDER 12.5 PTS