AI Model:

Isaiah Collier▼

UTA · PG

PPG

11.7

RPG

2.5

APG

7.2

L5 PPG

18.4

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+6.7

11.7

18.4

RPG+0.1

2.5

2.6

APG-0.6

7.2

6.6

SPG+0.1

1.1

1.2

BPG+0.1

0.3

0.4

UNDER 15.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

15.5

MEM

2026-02-20

2026-02-20 vs MEM: 24 pts

HOU

2026-02-23

2026-02-23 vs HOU: 17 pts

NOP

2026-02-26

2026-02-26 vs NOP: 11 pts

NOP

2026-02-28

2026-02-28 vs NOP: 21 pts

DEN

2026-03-02

2026-03-02 vs DEN: 10 pts

PHI

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs PHI: 18 pts

WAS

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs WAS: 27 pts

NYK

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs NYK: 9 pts

POR

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs POR: 17 pts

SAC

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs SAC: 21 pts

Over 15.5

Under 15.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 15.5DRAFTKINGS

66%

AST

UNDER 7.5DRAFTKINGS

58%

REB

OVER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

54%

3PM

OVER 0.5BETONLINEAG

56%

STL

UNDER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

60%

BLK

UNDER 0.5

78%

STL+BLK

UNDER 2.5

57%

OVER 2.5

55%

PRA

UNDER 26.5DRAFTKINGS

63%

P+A

UNDER 23.5DRAFTKINGS

61%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

12.4

19.8

RPG

2.2

3.2

APG

7.8

8.6

vs MIN (H2H)6 games

PPG

11.0

RPG

3.0

APG

7.8

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Sidy Cissoko	3	9	88%	+25.3%	medium
Ryan Nembhard	4	8	43%	-21.1%	medium
Donte DiVincenzo	4	7	42%	-16.4%	medium
Jake LaRavia	3	7	58%

Collier’s assist volume is the safer angle, but points are overpriced

Isaiah Collier is coming off a strong recent scoring run, with 18.4 PPG over his last 5 compared to 11.7 for the season, but that pace is well above his baseline and the trend is listed as down. His distribution remains steady, with 7.2 APG on the season and 6.6 APG over the last 5, while his recent minutes have stayed around 25.8-26.4. Minnesota has allowed him 11.0 PPG and 7.83 APG across 6 career games, and the Timberwolves' pace of 100 plus a 114.93 defensive rating suggests a controlled environment. The main caution is regression: his last-5 scoring is more than 20% above season average, so the market should treat that surge carefully.

Stat Trends

PPG

18.4(↓ from 11.7)

APG

6.6(→ from 7.2)

RPG

2.6(→ from 2.5)

SPG

1.2(→ from 1.1)

Key Matchup

Minnesota’s defense has a 114.93 rating with a pace of 100 and a three-point suppression of 0.055, which points to a slower, slightly tougher scoring environment. There is no specific defender matchup data that should be overread here beyond the listed key defenders and their limited minute samples.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Isaiah Collier▼	Points	15.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	2/2	30%	14	✓
Isaiah Collier▼	Assists	7.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	80%	6	✓
Isaiah Collier▼	Rebounds	2.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	3	✓
Isaiah Collier▼	3PM	0.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	—	40%	0	✗
Isaiah Collier▼	Steals	1.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	3	✗
Isaiah Collier▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	78%HIGH	—	60%	1	✗
Isaiah Collier▼	STL+BLK	2.5	UNDER	57%MEDIUM	—	70%	4	✗
Isaiah Collier▼	Turnovers	2.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	—	40%	5	✓
Isaiah Collier▼	PRA	26.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	23	✓
Isaiah Collier▼	P+A	23.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	20	✓

ML Scout Analysis

P+R19.5UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (11/20)9/2045%▼

P+A24.5UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x9/2045%▼

R+A11UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 2x7/2035%▼

Featured Pick

Isaiah Collier

Points UNDER 15.5HIGH

This line is far above Collier’s season scoring mean of 11.7 and above his away mean of 12.61. His last-5 scoring surge to 18.4 is the kind of overextended run that often regresses, making the under the most stable angle on the board.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Donte DiVincenzo	4	7	6	33%	42%
Mike Conley	3	4	0	0%	0%
Jaylen Clark	4	4	2	50%	50%
Anthony Edwards	3	4	13	83%	108%
Jaden McDaniels	4	4	14	75%	88%

pointsUNDER 15.566%MEDIUM

His season mean is 11.7 PPG and even his away mean is 12.61, both below this line. The last-5 jump to 18.4 is elevated and likely regresses toward the season baseline.

assistsUNDER 7.558%MEDIUM

Collier sits at 7.2 APG for the season and 6.1 APG over the last 10, so 7.5 is slightly above his central tendency. The matchup history vs Minnesota is 7.83 APG in 6 games, but not enough to strongly clear this number.

reboundsOVER 2.554%MEDIUM

He averages 2.5 RPG on the season and 2.6 RPG over the last 5, right around this number. This is a thin edge and not a high-confidence play.

threesOVER 0.556%MEDIUM

He averages 0.46 made threes per game on the season and 0.5 over the last 10, so the threshold is close. The volume is modest, which keeps confidence limited.

stealsUNDER 1.560%MEDIUM

His season average is 1.1 SPG and last-10 is 1.5, but the standard deviation is high enough to keep this volatile. With a line at 1.5, the under is the cleaner side.

blocksUNDER 0.578%HIGH

He averages only 0.3 BPG on the season and 0.5 over the last 10, so a single block is not a consistent outcome. This is a lower-variance under based on his profile.

stocksUNDER 2.557%MEDIUM

He averages 1.44 stocks on the season and 2.0 over the last 10, but that recent spike is not stable enough to justify the over at 2.5. The combined stat is still too volatile for strong over conviction.

turnoversOVER 2.555%MEDIUM

His recent turnover rates are 2.2 over the last 5 and 2.3 over the last 10, both near or above this mark. With a high-usage ball-handler profile, this is a reasonable over lean.

praUNDER 26.563%MEDIUM

Seasonally he is at 11.7 points, 2.5 rebounds, and 7.2 assists for 21.4 PRA, which is well below 26.5. The recent scoring surge raises the ceiling, but not enough to make the over the default.

paUNDER 23.561%MEDIUM

His season points-plus-assists total is 18.9, and even the last-5 blend is 25.0, which makes this line difficult to clear consistently. Regression from the recent scoring spike points to the under.

timelineUNDER 15.5 PTS