Mitchell’s scoring line is vulnerable, but his all-around production stays intact

His season mean is 28.05, but the recent_mean is 23.3 and the last 5 is 22.2, so this number is above his current form. He has hit a scoring dip despite solid minutes, and the under gets a better price profile than forcing an over on a player trending below season scoring.

Mitchell’s season_mean is 4.48 and his recent_mean is 4.4, making 4.5 essentially a coin flip with no edge to the over. The last 5 at 3.8 and last 20 at 3.9 lean slightly below this line.

He averages 5.87 assists on the season and 5.6 over the last 10, with a 6.6 APG last 5 spike showing stable playmaking. The line is right around his normal output, and his head-to-head average of 5.75 APG vs this opponent supports the over slightly.

His season_mean is 3.34 made threes, but the recent_mean is only 1.9, which is a meaningful drop-off. Given the last 10 volume is also down and the opponent has a 1.229 three suppression factor, the under is the safer side.

Mitchell averages 1.6 steals per game, but steal props carry volatility and his recent_mean is still just 1.6. With a 1.5 line and no strong edge from the recent sample, this is close enough to prefer the under in a conservative model.

His points-plus-rebounds season_mean is 32.53, but the last 5 scoring dip has pulled the recent profile down. Because combo props are higher variance and his points have softened, this line is playable under rather than chasing the over.

Mitchell’s season averages of 28.05 points and 5.87 assists sum to 33.92, above this line. Even with a recent scoring dip, his playmaking remains steady enough that points plus assists can still clear 30.5.