Last 10 games
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OG Anunoby | 3 | 13 | 0% | -48.1% | medium |
| Pelle Larsson | 3 | 11 | 83% | +18.6% | medium |
| Kelly Oubre Jr. | 4 | 11 | 50% | -3.7% | medium |
| Anthony Black | 2 | 10 | 67% |
Donovan Mitchell is averaging 28.0 PPG, 4.5 RPG, and 5.9 APG on the season, but his recent scoring has cooled to 22.2 PPG over the last 5 and 23.3 over the last 10. The matchup data is still strong for his profile: he has averaged 32.1875 PPG, 5.75 RPG, and 5.75 APG in 16 games vs this opponent, and the opponent defense has allowed a 120.37 defensive rating with a 1.144 scoring suppression factor. His season threes rate is 3.34 made per game, while his recent three volume has dropped to 1.9 made over the last 10, so the shooting prop looks more fragile than the assists and combo angles.
No specific defender matchup data beyond the listed key defenders, and the opponent context is mixed: Chicago’s defense shows a 120.37 defensive rating, but the game environment also includes a 1.144 scoring suppression and 1.229 three suppression. Mitchell has produced 32.1875 PPG in 16 games vs this opponent, which is the clearest matchup support in the data.
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Donovan Mitchell▼ | Points | 24.5 | UNDER | 66%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 60% |
Donovan Mitchell▼ | Rebounds | 4.5 | UNDER | 59%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 50% |
Donovan Mitchell▼ | Assists | 5.5 | OVER | 62%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 30% |
Donovan Mitchell▼ | 3PM | 2.5 | UNDER | 64%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 70% |
Donovan Mitchell▼ | Steals | 1.5 | UNDER | 57%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 40% |
Donovan Mitchell▼ | P+R | 29.5 | UNDER | 60%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 70% |
Donovan Mitchell▼ | P+A | 30.5 | OVER | 58%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 40% |
This is the cleanest balance of form and price: his season_mean is 5.87 assists, the last 10 is 5.6, and the opponent history sits at 5.75 APG across 16 games. Unlike the scoring props, this number matches his baseline closely enough to trust without needing a hot shooting night.
| low |
| Brandon Miller | 4 | 10 | 50% | -3.7% | medium |
| Defender | Games | Min | PTS | FG% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaac Okoro | 2 | 8 | 8 | 67% | 67% |
| Matas Buzelis | 2 | 4 | 2 | 50% | 50% |
| Tre Jones | 2 | 4 | 2 | 50% | 50% |
| Ayo Dosunmu | 1 | 2 | 2 | 100% | 100% |
| Patrick Williams | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
His season mean is 28.05, but the recent_mean is 23.3 and the last 5 is 22.2, so this number is above his current form. He has hit a scoring dip despite solid minutes, and the under gets a better price profile than forcing an over on a player trending below season scoring.
Mitchell’s season_mean is 4.48 and his recent_mean is 4.4, making 4.5 essentially a coin flip with no edge to the over. The last 5 at 3.8 and last 20 at 3.9 lean slightly below this line.
He averages 5.87 assists on the season and 5.6 over the last 10, with a 6.6 APG last 5 spike showing stable playmaking. The line is right around his normal output, and his head-to-head average of 5.75 APG vs this opponent supports the over slightly.
His season_mean is 3.34 made threes, but the recent_mean is only 1.9, which is a meaningful drop-off. Given the last 10 volume is also down and the opponent has a 1.229 three suppression factor, the under is the safer side.
Mitchell averages 1.6 steals per game, but steal props carry volatility and his recent_mean is still just 1.6. With a 1.5 line and no strong edge from the recent sample, this is close enough to prefer the under in a conservative model.
His points-plus-rebounds season_mean is 32.53, but the last 5 scoring dip has pulled the recent profile down. Because combo props are higher variance and his points have softened, this line is playable under rather than chasing the over.
Mitchell’s season averages of 28.05 points and 5.87 assists sum to 33.92, above this line. Even with a recent scoring dip, his playmaking remains steady enough that points plus assists can still clear 30.5.