AI Model:

Evan Mobley▲

CLE · C

PPG

18.1

RPG

8.9

APG

3.6

L5 PPG

21.4

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+3.3

18.1

21.4

RPG+1.9

8.9

10.8

APG-1.0

3.6

2.6

SPG-0.6

0.8

0.2

BPG+0.5

1.9

2.4

UNDER 19.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

19.5

NYK

2026-02-24

2026-02-24 vs NYK: 12 pts

DET

2026-02-27

2026-02-27 vs DET: 23 pts

BKN

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs BKN: 17 pts

DET

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs DET: 18 pts

BOS

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs BOS: 24 pts

PHI

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs PHI: 15 pts

ORL

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs ORL: 18 pts

DAL

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs DAL: 29 pts

DAL

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs DAL: 18 pts

MIL

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs MIL: 27 pts

Over 19.5

Under 19.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 19.5FANDUEL

66%

REB

UNDER 9.5FANDUEL

61%

AST

UNDER 3.5DRAFTKINGS

64%

BLK

OVER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

68%

3PM

OVER 0.5DRAFTKINGS

58%

P+R

UNDER 29.5FANDUEL

60%

R+A

UNDER 12.5FANDUEL

63%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

17.7

18.8

RPG

8.6

10.1

APG

3.5

2.5

vs CHI (H2H)11 games

PPG

17.2

RPG

8.5

APG

2.5

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Scottie Barnes	3	16	44%	-11.1%	medium
Paolo Banchero	4	14	59%	-2.9%	medium
Adem Bona	4	14	40%	-14.8%	medium
Wendell Carter Jr.	3	12	68%

Mobley’s rim protection stays elite, but points and rebounds are priced near his true range

Evan Mobley is trending up, with his last-5 scoring at 21.4 PPG and rebounding at 10.8 RPG versus season marks of 18.1 and 8.9. His shot-blocking remains a major floor-raiser, as he has 1.9 BPG on the season and 2.4 blocks over his last 5, while his minutes have held near 30-33 recently. The matchup is not overly intimidating on paper: Chicago carries a 120.37 defensive rating and Cleveland has Mobley in a stable role with 32.4 MPG season-long. The main caution is regression on the hot scoring run, since his last-5 points are well above his season average and combo props carry extra variance.

Stat Trends

PPG

21.4(↑ from 18.1)

RPG

10.8(↑ from 8.9)

APG

2.6(↓ from 3.6)

BPG

2.4(↑ from 1.9)

Key Matchup

Chicago’s opponent defensive rating is 120.37, with pace listed at 100, so the environment is workable but not elite for offense. Key defender matchup data is limited here, so there is no specific defender matchup data beyond the listed Chicago personnel and their small-minute samples.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Evan Mobley▼	Points	19.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	26	✗
Evan Mobley▼	Rebounds	9.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	14	✗
Evan Mobley▼	Assists	3.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	3	✓
Evan Mobley▼	Blocks	1.5	OVER	68%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	0	✗
Evan Mobley▼	3PM	0.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	—	50%	0	✗
Evan Mobley▼	P+R	29.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	40	✗
Evan Mobley▼	R+A	12.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	17	✗

ML Scout Analysis

REB8.5OVER10%gbt_reboundsDecent Leg (13/20)10/2050%▼

P+R28.5OVER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (13/20)11/2055%▼

R+A12OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (11/20)10/2050%▼

P+A22UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (11/20)9/2045%▼

PTS18UNDER30%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (10/20)9/2045%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

AST3UNDER1%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 3x8/2040%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER▼

3PA2UNDER55%gbtWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 10x6/2030%▼

PRA33UNDER25%gbt_praWeak Leg (10/20)9/2045%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

BLK0.5UNDER26%gbt_blocksWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 3x10/2050%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

FTA5UNDER27%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)7/2035%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

FTM2UNDER20%gbtWeak Leg (8/20)8/2040%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

Featured Pick

Evan Mobley

Blocks OVER 1.5HIGH

This is the cleanest edge in the profile because Mobley’s season average is 1.9 blocks and his recent form is even stronger at 2.4 over the last 5. The line sits below both his season and recent production, giving it a better cushion than his points or rebounds props.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Nick Richards	1	6	4	50%	50%
Nikola Vučević	1	4	2	25%	25%
Matas Buzelis	2	3	0	0%	0%
Patrick Williams	2	2	0	0%	0%
Josh Giddey	2	2	2	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 19.566%MEDIUM

His season average is 18.1 PPG, below the 19.5 line, and the last-5 jump to 21.4 is elevated enough to expect some regression. He also averages 17.56 PPG away, which is slightly below the line.

reboundsUNDER 9.561%MEDIUM

Mobley’s season average is 8.9 RPG and his away average is 9.04, both under 9.5. His last-5 rebound spike to 10.8 is strong, but the season baseline keeps this closer to under territory.

assistsUNDER 3.564%MEDIUM

He averages 3.61 APG on the season, but his recent mean is only 2.2 and the last-5 is 2.6. That recent dip makes 3.5 a difficult number to clear consistently.

blocksOVER 1.568%MEDIUM

Mobley averages 1.9 BPG on the season and 2.4 over his last 5, so 1.5 is below both baselines. His recent game log also shows multiple 3- and 4-block outings.

threesOVER 0.558%MEDIUM

He averages 1.11 threes per game on the season and 1.1 over his last 5, so 0.5 is a low bar. The volatility is real, but the volume is enough to support one make.

prUNDER 29.560%MEDIUM

His season points-plus-rebounds profile sits at 26.96 using season means, which is below 29.5. The last-5 push is closer, but the season baseline still favors the under.

raUNDER 12.563%MEDIUM

Mobley’s season rebounds plus assists average is 12.45, essentially right at the line, but his away mean is 11.54 and recent assists have cooled. That makes the under the slightly safer side.

timelineUNDER 19.5 PTS