AI Model:

Jalen Smith▲

CHI · C

PPG

10.2

RPG

6.9

APG

1.3

L5 PPG

10.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+0.4

10.2

10.6

RPG-1.3

6.9

5.6

APG-0.5

1.3

0.8

SPG-0.3

0.5

0.2

BPG-0.4

0.8

0.4

UNDER 12.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

12.5

MIL

2026-02-03

2026-02-03 vs MIL: 16 pts

TOR

2026-02-05

2026-02-05 vs TOR: 13 pts

TOR

2026-02-19

2026-02-19 vs TOR: 9 pts

DET

2026-02-21

2026-02-21 vs DET: 15 pts

NYK

2026-02-22

2026-02-22 vs NYK: 12 pts

SAC

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs SAC: 4 pts

GSW

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs GSW: 12 pts

LAL

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs LAL: 14 pts

MEM

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs MEM: 13 pts

TOR

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs TOR: 10 pts

Over 12.5

Under 12.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 12.5DRAFTKINGS

63%

REB

UNDER 7.5DRAFTKINGS

66%

AST

UNDER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

72%

3PM

OVER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

58%

STL

OVER 0.5

54%

BLK

OVER 0.5

55%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

61%

P+R

UNDER 19.5DRAFTKINGS

60%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

11.5

12.5

RPG

7.5

8.2

APG

0.9

1.6

vs CLE (H2H)18 games

PPG

9.3

RPG

5.5

APG

0.9

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Karl-Anthony Towns	3	11	33%	-14.5%	medium
Nic Claxton	2	10	75%	+27.2%	low
Jabari Smith Jr.	2	9	63%	+2.2%	low
Danny Wolf	2	8	50%

Jalen Smith’s scoring has steadied, but rebound value looks capped

Jalen Smith is in an upward trend overall, with his last-20 scoring at 11.9 PPG and rebounds at 7.8 RPG, both above his season marks of 10.2 and 6.9. His recent minutes have also climbed to 23.9 MPG from 20.7 on the season, which supports a solid floor, though his last-5 rebound rate has dipped to 5.6 RPG. Against Cleveland, his head-to-head averages are more modest at 9.277777777777779 PPG and 5.5 RPG across 18 games, which makes the higher rebound lines harder to justify. The safest angle is leaning under on the bigger rebound number while staying near the middle on points and threes.

Stat Trends

PPG

10.6(→ from 10.2)

RPG

5.6(↓ from 6.9)

APG

0.8(↓ from 1.3)

3PM

1.4(→ from 1.5)

Key Matchup

Cleveland’s opponent profile shows a 114.88 defensive rating and a 100 pace, with scoring suppression at -0.109 and three suppression at 1.309. On the player side, his history versus Cleveland is muted at 9.277777777777779 PPG and 5.5 RPG over 18 games, while the provided key defenders data does not give a single clear matchup focus.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend
Jalen Smith▼	Points	12.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	2/2	50%
Jalen Smith▼	Rebounds	7.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	2/2	70%
Jalen Smith▼	Assists	1.5	UNDER	72%HIGH	2/2	70%
Jalen Smith▼	3PM	1.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	60%
Jalen Smith▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	—	40%
Jalen Smith▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	—	40%
Jalen Smith▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	—	80%
Jalen Smith▼	P+R	19.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	1/2	60%

ML Scout Analysis

R+A9UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 4x8/1942%▼

P+R20OVER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (11/20)10/1953%▼

P+A13.5OVER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (11/20)10/1953%▼

Featured Pick

Jalen Smith

Rebounds UNDER 7.5HIGH

This is the cleanest angle because his season average is 6.88 RPG, his last-5 is only 5.6, and his head-to-head mark versus Cleveland is 5.5 RPG. Even with a starting role, the recent rebound profile does not support consistently getting above 7.5.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Jarrett Allen	2	4	5	100%	100%
Nae'Qwan Tomlin	1	3	7	67%	100%
Lonzo Ball	3	2	0	0%	0%
Evan Mobley	1	2	6	67%	83%
De'Andre Hunter	2	2	6	100%	100%

pointsUNDER 12.563%MEDIUM

His season mean is 10.18 PPG and his home mean is 10.07, both below 12.5. The recent 11.8 last-10 is improved, but it is still not enough to clear this number with strong confidence, especially against a Cleveland profile that has held his matchup average to 9.277777777777779 PPG.

reboundsUNDER 7.566%MEDIUM

He averages 6.88 RPG on the season and 7.11 at home, both below or just under this line depending on the split. His last-5 rebound average is only 5.6, and his head-to-head mark versus Cleveland is 5.5 RPG across 18 games.

assistsUNDER 1.572%HIGH

His season mean is 1.26 APG and his home mean is 1.04, both below 1.5. Even with a slightly better away split at 1.55, his last-5 is just 0.8 APG and the recent distribution is not supportive of a steady over.

threesOVER 1.558%MEDIUM

He averages 1.52 made threes per game on the season and 1.6 over the last 10, so 1.5 is right on his production range. The margin is thin, but his volume is meaningful with 1.52 season mean and recent 1.8? no, recent 1.6, making this a playable over at moderate confidence.

stealsOVER 0.554%MEDIUM

His season steals average is 0.5 and his last-10 is 0.6, which puts him on the edge of the line rather than clearly below it. Confidence stays modest because the sample is volatile and his last-5 dropped to 0.2.

blocksOVER 0.555%MEDIUM

He averages 0.8 blocks on the season and 0.7 over the last 20, so 0.5 is a reachable threshold. The last-5 sits at 0.4, so this is not a strong play, but the baseline still supports the over.

stocksUNDER 1.561%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.24 and last-10 is 1.2, both below a typical 1.5 threshold. The underlying block/steal combination is solid but not consistently high enough to trust an over.

prUNDER 19.560%MEDIUM

His points and rebounds combined season averages total 17.08, and even the last-10 totals only 18.2. Recent usage is better, but this combo line still asks for a ceiling game rather than a median outcome.

timelineUNDER 12.5 PTS