Last 10 games
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Flagg | 4 | 16 | 60% | +16.0% | medium |
| Jaylen Wells | 3 | 14 | 83% | +22.7% | medium |
| Dyson Daniels | 2 | 12 | 0% | -44.0% | low |
| LeBron James | 4 | 12 | 50% |
James Harden’s season line of 24.1 points, 8.0 assists, and 4.9 rebounds is strong, but his recent form has cooled to 21.6 points and 6.6 assists over the last 5 games and 20.7 points over the last 10. His home splits are notably softer than his away production, with just 17.4 PPG at home versus 23.3 PPG on the road, and tonight’s game is in Chicago. The matchup data also leans cautious on scoring: Chicago’s opponent defense profile shows a 120.37 defensive rating, 1.144 scoring suppression, and 1.229 three-point suppression, which supports a more modest scoring projection.
There is no specific defender matchup data to lean on beyond the listed names, so the analysis should stay team- and trend-based. Chicago’s opponent defense profile shows a 120.37 defensive rating along with 1.144 scoring suppression and 1.229 three-point suppression, which is a modest drag on Harden’s scoring and perimeter output.
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
James Harden▼ | Points | 20.5 | OVER | 58%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 40% | 36 | ✓ |
James Harden▼ | Rebounds | 4.5 | OVER | 56%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 80% | 7 | ✓ |
James Harden▼ | Assists | 8.5 | UNDER | 66%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 80% | 9 | ✗ |
James Harden▼ | 3PM | 2.5 | OVER | 54%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 70% | 7 | ✓ |
James Harden▼ | Steals | 0.5 | OVER | 60%MEDIUM | — | 40% | 2 | ✓ |
James Harden▼ | Blocks | 0.5 | UNDER | 63%MEDIUM | — | 80% | 1 | ✗ |
James Harden▼ | STL+BLK | 1.5 | UNDER | 64%MEDIUM | — | 80% | 3 | ✗ |
James Harden▼ | Turnovers | 3.5 | OVER | 61%MEDIUM | — | 60% | 5 | ✓ |
James Harden▼ | PRA | 34.5 | UNDER | 62%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 70% | 52 | ✗ |
James Harden▼ | P+A | 28.5 | UNDER | 59%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 50% | 45 | ✗ |
Harden’s assist profile has clearly cooled, falling from an 8.0 season average to 6.6 over the last 5 and 7.1 over the last 10. The 8.5 line is above his recent production, and his home split of 7.6 apg adds support to the under in this spot.
| medium |
| Andrew Wiggins | 4 | 11 | 91% | +28.7% | medium |
| Defender | Games | Min | PTS | FG% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matas Buzelis | 2 | 6 | 10 | 50% | 56% |
| Patrick Williams | 1 | 2 | 3 | 100% | 150% |
| Nikola Vučević | 1 | 2 | 4 | 100% | 100% |
| Tre Jones | 2 | 2 | 4 | 50% | 50% |
| Guerschon Yabusele | 1 | 2 | 3 | 100% | 150% |
His season mean is 24.1 and even with the recent dip to 21.6 over the last 5, this line is still below both season and away scoring levels. The recent downturn and Chicago’s scoring suppression keep confidence moderate rather than high.
He averages 4.9 rebounds on the season and 5.2 over the last 10, so 4.5 is slightly below his typical output. Variance is manageable, but this is still a modest edge.
Harden’s season assist average is 8.0, but the last 5 is down to 6.6 and the last 10 is 7.1. The 8.5 line is above his current form and his recent trend points to the under.
He averages 3.03 made threes per game on the season and 3.0 over the last 10. The line is reasonable, but the opponent’s 1.229 three-point suppression lowers certainty.
His season steals average is 1.1, which is comfortably above 0.5. Even with recent steals volatility, this is still the clearest low-bar defensive stat on the board.
He averages only 0.4 blocks per game on the season, below the 0.5 line. That makes the under the cleaner side on a low-volume stat.
Season stocks are 1.5, but the last 10 drops to 0.7 and the recent 5 is 1.0, showing a clear cooldown. Because the combined stat carries more volatility, the under is safer.
He is at 3.5 turnovers over the last 20 and 3.6 over the last 5 and last 10. With his high on-ball usage, the over is supported by the recent and season baseline.
His season PRA is roughly 37.9 using 24.1 points, 4.9 rebounds, and 8.0 assists, but the last 5 comes in around 33.0 and the last 10 around 33.0. Given the recent dip and combo-prop caution, the under is the better value side.
His season points plus assists is 32.1, but recent form has fallen to about 28.2 over the last 5 and 27.8 over the last 10. This line sits near the current trend, so the under is slightly preferred.