AI Model:

Josh Giddey▼

CHI · PG

PPG

17.7

RPG

8.4

APG

8.9

L5 PPG

18.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+0.9

17.7

18.6

RPG+1.0

8.4

9.4

APG+2.7

8.9

11.6

SPG+0.6

1.0

1.6

BPG-0.2

0.4

0.2

UNDER 17.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

17.5

CHA

2026-02-24

2026-02-24 vs CHA: 8 pts

POR

2026-02-26

2026-02-26 vs POR: 15 pts

MIL

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs MIL: 20 pts

OKC

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs OKC: 14 pts

SAC

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs SAC: 15 pts

GSW

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs GSW: 21 pts

LAL

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs LAL: 27 pts

LAC

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs LAC: 20 pts

MEM

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs MEM: 16 pts

TOR

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs TOR: 9 pts

Over 17.5

Under 17.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 17.5DRAFTKINGS

64%

REB

UNDER 8.5DRAFTKINGS

58%

AST

UNDER 9.5DRAFTKINGS

60%

3PM

UNDER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

66%

STL

UNDER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

63%

BLK

UNDER 0.5BETMGM

72%

STL+BLK

UNDER 2.5

61%

OVER 3.5

57%

PRA

UNDER 36.5DRAFTKINGS

58%

P+A

UNDER 27.5DRAFTKINGS

60%

P+R

OVER 26.5DRAFTKINGS

54%

R+A

UNDER 17.5DRAFTKINGS

59%

OVER 0.5

55%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

12.8

18.7

RPG

6.4

9.8

APG

7.4

12.3

vs CLE (H2H)11 games

PPG

12.6

RPG

7.5

APG

5.4

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Jaylon Tyson	4	15	64%	+19.7%	medium
Dyson Daniels	2	14	29%	-16.0%	low
OG Anunoby	4	14	77%	+16.9%	medium
Andrew Nembhard	3	13	46%

Giddey’s all-around ceiling is real, but the home split keeps the overs in check

Josh Giddey is producing across the board, with season marks of 17.7 points, 8.4 rebounds, and 8.9 assists, and his last 5 has climbed to 18.6/9.4/11.6. The concern is that his trend is down over the larger sample, and his home split is noticeably softer at 12.8 points, 6.4 rebounds, and 7.4 assists in 14 games. Against Cleveland, his historical production also dips to 12.636363636363637 points and 5.363636363636363 assists across 11 games, so the market may be pricing in more than the matchup usually allows. The best path is to lean on volume-based under angles rather than chasing the elevated recent stretch.

Stat Trends

PPG

18.6(↑ from 17.7)

RPG

9.4(↑ from 8.4)

APG

11.6(↑ from 8.9)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data beyond the listed defender pool, and the opponent profile shows a 114.88 defensive rating with 100 pace and -0.109 scoring suppression. Cleveland also shows 1.309 three suppression, which makes the shooting-based overs a bit less attractive.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Josh Giddey▼	Points	17.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	9	✓
Josh Giddey▼	Rebounds	8.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	6	✓
Josh Giddey▼	Assists	9.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	19	✗
Josh Giddey▼	3PM	2.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	1	✓
Josh Giddey▼	Steals	1.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	1	✓
Josh Giddey▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	72%HIGH	—	70%	2	✗
Josh Giddey▼	STL+BLK	2.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	—	60%	3	✗
Josh Giddey▼	Turnovers	3.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	—	60%	5	✓
Josh Giddey▼	PRA	36.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	34	✓
Josh Giddey▼	P+A	27.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	28	✗
Josh Giddey▼	P+R	26.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	15	✗
Josh Giddey▼	R+A	17.5	UNDER	59%MEDIUM	1/2	30%	25	✗
Josh Giddey▼	Double-Double	0.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	—	—	—	—

ML Scout Analysis

P+R22OVER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼

P+A24OVER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 2x11/2055%▼

R+A17.5OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x12/2060%▼

Featured Pick

Josh Giddey

Blocks UNDER 0.5HIGH

This is the cleanest edge in the dataset because his season average is only 0.4 blocks and his last 5 is 0.2. The line requires a block, but his normal production sits below that threshold with very limited upside to justify the over.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Jaylon Tyson	4	15	19	64%	64%
Dean Wade	4	10	0	0%	0%
De'Andre Hunter	3	6	7	33%	42%
Keon Ellis	1	4	2	100%	100%
Lonzo Ball	3	3	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 17.564%MEDIUM

His season mean is 17.67, but his home split is only 12.8 points and his vs-opponent average is 12.636363636363637 points in 11 games. The recent form is fine, but the longer trend is down and this number is already around his season average.

reboundsUNDER 8.558%MEDIUM

Giddey averages 8.43 rebounds for the season, 7.77 at home, and his vs-opponent rebounding mark is 7.454545454545454. The recent run is stronger, but the season baseline still sits below this line.

assistsUNDER 9.560%MEDIUM

His season mean is 8.89 assists and his home split is 7.4, while his last 5 spike to 11.6 comes with a higher-variance profile. The line sits above both season and home production, so the under is the safer side.

threesUNDER 2.566%MEDIUM

He averages 2.02 made threes on the season and 1.7 at home, which is below this line. His recent 2.9 is hot, but the season mean still points to fewer than 3 makes.

stealsUNDER 1.563%MEDIUM

He averages exactly 1.0 steal on the season and 1.1 at home, while the line is 1.5. The recent 1.6 is stronger, but this remains a high bar relative to his baseline.

blocksUNDER 0.572%HIGH

His season average is 0.4 blocks and his last 5 is 0.2, so this line requires a block in a spot where his typical output is below the threshold. The over would need unusual efficiency.

stocksUNDER 2.561%MEDIUM

He averages 1.41 stocks for the season and 1.9 over the last 10, but 2.5 is still above the normal range. The higher recent defensive activity is notable, yet this is a volatile combo-style threshold.

turnoversOVER 3.557%MEDIUM

His recent turnover rates are 3.6 over the last 5 and 3.8 over the last 10, with season data also showing 3.9 over the last 20. The ball-handling load is high enough that 3.5 is reachable.

praUNDER 36.558%MEDIUM

The combo line is well above his season production blend of 17.7 points, 8.4 rebounds, and 8.9 assists, and combo props carry extra variance. His last 5 is strong, but the season profile does not comfortably support 36.5.

paUNDER 27.560%MEDIUM

He averages 26.56 points plus assists on the season and 30.2 over the last 5, but the home and opponent context both pull him back. With the line above season expectation, the under is slightly preferable.

prOVER 26.554%MEDIUM

His season points plus rebounds average is 26.1, and his last 5 is 28.0. This is a narrow edge only, so confidence stays modest.

raUNDER 17.559%MEDIUM

He averages 16.83 rebounds plus assists on the season and 21.0 over the last 5, but his home split is 14.1 and the opponent history is 12.818181818181818. The recent surge makes this close, but the broader sample favors the under.

double_doubleOVER 0.555%MEDIUM

He has clear double-double potential with season averages of 8.4 rebounds and 8.9 assists, and his recent stretch shows multiple games with 10+ in both categories. This is a volatile yes/no market, but the all-around workload supports a double-double chance.

timelineUNDER 17.5 PTS