Last 10 games
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mikal Bridges | 4 | 16 | 60% | +6.7% | medium |
| AJ Green | 4 | 13 | 50% | -13.3% | medium |
| Ausar Thompson | 3 | 12 | 31% | -15.8% | medium |
| Brandon Ingram | 3 | 11 | 58% |
Matas Buzelis is in a strong scoring stretch, averaging 25.8 PPG over his last 5 and 23.2 over his last 10, well above his 16.2 season mark. The concern is regression: his last-5 scoring is 59.9% above his season average, and the overall trend is listed as down, so the inflated run deserves caution. He also draws a Cleveland defense with a 114.88 defensive rating and a team context that includes a back-to-back for Chicago, which can add minutes risk late. His season home scoring is 18.6 PPG, but his matchup history vs this opponent is only 11.7 PPG across 7 games, which keeps the ceiling tempered.
No specific defender matchup data is provided, so there is no specific defender matchup data. The available opponent context shows Cleveland with a 114.88 defensive rating and 100 pace, which does not create a strong reason to chase overs.
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Matas Buzelis▼ | Points | 19.5 | UNDER | 63%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 30% | 13 | ✓ |
Matas Buzelis▼ | Rebounds | 6.5 | UNDER | 55%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 30% | 5 | ✓ |
Matas Buzelis▼ | Assists | 2.5 | UNDER | 68%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 60% | 0 | ✓ |
Matas Buzelis▼ | 3PM | 2.5 | OVER | 58%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 60% | 2 | ✗ |
Matas Buzelis▼ | Blocks | 1.5 | UNDER | 60%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 50% | 3 | ✗ |
Matas Buzelis▼ | STL+BLK | 2 | OVER | 54%MEDIUM | — | 60% | 6 | ✓ |
Matas Buzelis▼ | P+R | 26.5 | UNDER | 61%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 20% | 18 | ✓ |
Matas Buzelis▼ | R+A | 7.5 | OVER | 57%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 90% | 5 | ✗ |
The season mean is 16.2 PPG, the last-20 is 19.1, and his head-to-head mark vs this opponent is only 11.7 PPG across 7 games. Even with the recent surge, the market line is above his longer-run production and the back-to-back context adds some downside risk.
| medium |
| Noah Clowney | 4 | 11 | 33% | -18.0% | medium |
| Defender | Games | Min | PTS | FG% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dean Wade | 4 | 8 | 2 | 33% | 33% |
| Jaylon Tyson | 4 | 5 | 10 | 50% | 56% |
| De'Andre Hunter | 3 | 4 | 10 | 67% | 83% |
| Evan Mobley | 2 | 3 | 9 | 80% | 80% |
| Nae'Qwan Tomlin | 3 | 3 | 3 | 33% | 33% |
His season average is 16.2 PPG and his vs-opponent mark is 11.7 PPG across 7 games, both below this line. The last-5 surge to 25.8 PPG is likely overstretched relative to his baseline.
He averages 5.6 rebounds on the season and 6.3 over the last 20, which is still short of 6.5. Recent form is better at 7.4 over the last 5, but that is a smaller sample and should be weighted conservatively.
Season assist average is 2.1 and his last-5 mark is only 1.4, so he has not been consistently clearing 2.5. The season standard deviation of 1.49 also signals meaningful volatility, but the baseline still leans under.
He averages 2.25 made threes per game on the season and 3.5 over the last 10, with 3.8 over the last 5 in a higher-minute role. This is the strongest over on the board, though the line is still close to his season mean.
He averages 1.5 blocks exactly on the season, but the line requires an over to beat a number that his baseline only matches. With variance in blocks and a season standard deviation of 1.59 for stocks, the under is the safer side.
His season stocks average is 2.19 and he has 2.3 over the last 10, so there is enough baseline support to project around 2.0. The edge is modest because defensive events can swing game to game.
Points plus rebounds season averages sum to 21.8, below 26.5, and his recent scoring spike is not enough to fully justify this combo. Combo props are inherently higher variance, so the under is preferred.
His season rebounds plus assists combine to 7.7, which is just above 7.5, and his recent rebounding has climbed to 7.1 over the last 10. This is a narrow edge, so confidence stays moderate.