AI Model:

Sam Merrill▲

CLE · SF

PPG

12.8

RPG

2.4

APG

2.3

L5 PPG

9.2

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-3.6

12.8

9.2

RPG+1.2

2.4

3.6

APG+0.7

2.3

3.0

SPG0.0

0.6

BPG-0.1

0.1

0.0

UNDER 11.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

11.5

OKC

2026-02-22

2026-02-22 vs OKC: 20 pts

NYK

2026-02-24

2026-02-24 vs NYK: 0 pts

MIL

2026-02-25

2026-02-25 vs MIL: 14 pts

DET

2026-02-27

2026-02-27 vs DET: 20 pts

BKN

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs BKN: 15 pts

DET

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs DET: 9 pts

BOS

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs BOS: 5 pts

PHI

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs PHI: 2 pts

ORL

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs ORL: 13 pts

MIL

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs MIL: 17 pts

Over 11.5

Under 11.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 11.5FANDUEL

72%

REB

OVER 2.5FANDUEL

56%

AST

UNDER 2.5BETONLINEAG

64%

3PM

OVER 2.5FANDUEL

58%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

69%

PRA

UNDER 16.5BETONLINEAG

55%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

7.9

12.8

RPG

2.6

2.5

APG

2.9

1.7

vs CHI (H2H)7 games

PPG

6.4

RPG

2.0

APG

2.4

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
AJ Green	4	20	100%	+20.8%	medium
Duncan Robinson	3	12	64%	+8.6%	medium
Trey Murphy III	2	8	50%	-5.9%	low
Jalen Brunson	3	8	44%

Merrill’s scoring is steady, but the under still looks safer

Sam Merrill is averaging 12.8 points, 2.4 rebounds, and 2.3 assists on the season while playing 25.9 minutes per game, with recent playing time holding up at 28.2 minutes. His last 10 scoring average is 11.5, and his last 5 drops to 9.2, which suggests his current form is a bit below season pace rather than trending into a surge. The matchup context is mixed: the Bulls are allowing a 120.37 defensive rating, but Merrill has averaged only 6.43 points in 7 games vs this opponent, so the head-to-head history is notably weak. With his home split at just 7.9 points and the market hanging a 11.5-point line, the scoring under is the cleaner angle.

Stat Trends

PPG

9.2(↓ from 12.8)

RPG

3.6(↑ from 2.4)

APG

3.0(↑ from 2.3)

3PM

1.8(↓ from 3.2)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data should be inferred beyond the provided key defenders list; the opponent context is mostly statistical. Chicago's defense numbers are not especially strong overall, but Merrill's 7-game history vs this opponent is just 6.43 points, 2 rebounds, and 2.43 assists, which is the most relevant matchup indicator.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Sam Merrill▼	Points	11.5	UNDER	72%HIGH	1/2	40%	13	✗
Sam Merrill▼	Rebounds	2.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	1	✗
Sam Merrill▼	Assists	2.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	3	✗
Sam Merrill▼	3PM	2.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	3	✓
Sam Merrill▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	69%MEDIUM	—	90%	3	✗
Sam Merrill▼	PRA	16.5	UNDER	55%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	17	✗

ML Scout Analysis

P+R15OVER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (13/20)10/2050%▼

PTS13UNDER27%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (12/20)9/2045%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

P+A14.5OVER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (12/20)11/2055%▼

REB3UNDER43%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x7/2035%Confidence moved LOW to HIGH▼

AST2OVER7%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (11/20)9/2045%▼

PRA17.5UNDER27%gbt_praWeak Leg (11/20)10/2050%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

R+A5.5OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (11/20)11/2055%▼

3PA7UNDER36%gbtWeak Leg (10/20)8/2040%▼

3PM2UNDER19%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (9/20)9/2045%▼

FTM0.5UNDER19%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)10/2050%▼

FTA1UNDER10%gbtWeak Leg (8/20)9/2045%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Scorecard changed -2.0▼

Featured Pick

Sam Merrill

Points UNDER 11.5HIGH

This is the strongest blend of season form, recent form, and opponent history. His season average is 12.8, but the last 10 is 11.5, the last 5 is 9.2, and he has only 6.43 points per game in 7 meetings vs Chicago, making the under the best value.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Tre Jones	2	7	12	60%	60%
Kevin Huerter	1	3	2	50%	50%
Rob Dillingham	1	2	4	67%	67%
Josh Giddey	2	2	2	17%	17%
Matas Buzelis	2	2	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 11.572%HIGH

Season scoring is 12.8, but his last 10 is 11.5 and last 5 is 9.2. He has also averaged only 6.43 points in 7 games vs this opponent, which supports the under at 11.5.

reboundsOVER 2.556%MEDIUM

He averages 2.4 rebounds on the season and 2.9 over the last 10, with 3.6 over the last 5. This is a thinner edge because the season mean is below the line, so confidence stays modest.

assistsUNDER 2.564%MEDIUM

His season assist average is 2.3 and his last 10 is exactly 2.3, which sits below the 2.5 line. The last 5 is 3.0, but that is a short sample and his season baseline is still under the number.

threesOVER 2.558%MEDIUM

He averages 3.19 threes made per game on the season and 2.5 over the last 10. Even with some recent cooling, the season average remains above 2.5.

stocksUNDER 1.569%MEDIUM

He averages 0.67 stocks on the season and 0.5 over the last 10, well below 1.5. The standard deviation is 0.8, so this stat is volatile, but the under still has the clear numeric edge.

praUNDER 16.555%MEDIUM

His season averages sum to 17.5 via 12.8 points, 2.4 rebounds, and 2.3 assists, but the recent scoring dip pulls this closer to the line. Because combo props are high variance, confidence should stay limited.

timelineUNDER 11.5 PTS

Defensive Matchup Profile

Merrill’s scoring is steady, but the under still looks safer

Stat Trends

Key Matchup

Prop Analysis

ML Scout Analysis

Featured Pick

UNDER 11.5 PTS