AI Model:

Ace Bailey▼

UTA · PF

PPG

12.3

RPG

3.9

APG

1.7

L5 PPG

17.4

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+5.1

12.3

17.4

RPG-0.9

3.9

3.0

APG-0.1

1.7

1.6

SPG+0.3

0.9

1.2

BPG+0.1

0.5

0.6

UNDER 17.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

17.5

HOU

2026-02-23

2026-02-23 vs HOU: 4 pts

NOP

2026-02-26

2026-02-26 vs NOP: 23 pts

NOP

2026-02-28

2026-02-28 vs NOP: 13 pts

DEN

2026-03-02

2026-03-02 vs DEN: 18 pts

PHI

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs PHI: 12 pts

WAS

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs WAS: 32 pts

MIL

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs MIL: 9 pts

NYK

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs NYK: 21 pts

POR

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs POR: 8 pts

MIN

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs MIN: 17 pts

Over 17.5

Under 17.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 17.5FANDUEL

62%

REB

UNDER 4.5FANDUEL

69%

AST

OVER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

58%

3PM

UNDER 2.5FANDUEL

66%

STL

OVER 0.5DRAFTKINGS

63%

BLK

UNDER 0.5BETMGM

57%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

61%

UNDER 2

64%

P+R

UNDER 21.5DRAFTKINGS

60%

P+A

UNDER 18.5DRAFTKINGS

56%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

16.8

14.2

RPG

5.1

4.9

APG

2.0

1.8

vs MIL (H2H)1 games

PPG

9.0

RPG

6.0

APG

3.0

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Jabari Smith Jr.	4	13	67%	+11.7%	medium
Moses Moody	2	12	69%	+9.9%	low
Rui Hachimura	3	11	56%	+0.5%	medium
Jaden McDaniels	4	10	108%

Home bump, but recent scoring surge looks due for some cooling

Ace Bailey is averaging 12.3 points, 3.9 rebounds, and 1.7 assists on the season, but his last 5 games have jumped to 17.4 points and 1.8 stocks, so the scoring run is clearly ahead of his baseline. The caution flag is that his trend is marked down, and his last-20 scoring average is 15.2 points, which sits much closer to his current market than the last-5 spike. At home he’s been better across the board with 16.8 points, 5.1 rebounds, and 2.0 assists, but his one game vs Milwaukee was only 9 points, 6 rebounds, and 3 assists in 29 minutes. Given the opponent defense data and the over-bias warning, the safer angle leans slightly to the under on the main scoring props and combo markets.

Stat Trends

PPG

17.4(↑ from 12.3)

RPG

3.0(↓ from 3.9)

APG

1.6(→ from 1.7)

Stocks

1.8(↑ from 1.4)

3PM

4.0(↑ from 1.7)

Key Matchup

There is no specific defender matchup data for this player, so there is no defender-specific edge to project. The matchup context does show Milwaukee with a 116.21 defensive rating and a 0.193 scoring suppression, while Utah is at home on a back-to-back.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Ace Bailey▼	Points	17.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	33	✗
Ace Bailey▼	Rebounds	4.5	UNDER	69%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	9	✗
Ace Bailey▼	Assists	1.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	4	✓
Ace Bailey▼	3PM	2.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	7	✗
Ace Bailey▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	63%MEDIUM	1/2	90%	3	✓
Ace Bailey▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	57%MEDIUM	—	50%	1	✗
Ace Bailey▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	61%MEDIUM	—	60%	4	✓
Ace Bailey▼	Turnovers	2	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	—	70%	3	✗
Ace Bailey▼	P+R	21.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	42	✗
Ace Bailey▼	P+A	18.5	UNDER	56%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	37	✗

ML Scout Analysis

PTS17.5OVER8%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (11/20)9/1947%▼

3PM2.5OVER2%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 3x8/1942%▼

REB5.5UNDER18%gbt_reboundsAvoid (7/20)9/1947%▼

AST2.5UNDER8%gbt_assistsAvoid (7/20)UNDER 3x7/1937%+9.9% edge▼

3PA8UNDER27%gbtAvoid (7/20)UNDER 2x8/1942%▼

PRA25.5UNDER19%gbt_praAvoid (7/20)8/1942%▼

P+R23.5UNDER0%gbt_prAvoid (7/20)7/1937%▼

P+A20.5UNDER0%gbt_paAvoid (7/20)8/1942%▼

R+A7UNDER0%gbt_raAvoid (6/20)UNDER 4x9/1947%▼

BLK1UNDER20%gbt_blocksAvoid (5/20)6/1932%▼

FTM0.5UNDER23%gbtAvoid (5/20)9/1947%▼

FTA0.5UNDER11%gbtAvoid (5/20)9/1947%▼

Featured Pick

Ace Bailey

Points UNDER 17.5MEDIUM

This line sits above his 12.3 season average and above his 15.2 last-20 average, so the market is asking for a level he has not sustained over a larger sample. The last-5 surge is strong, but with regression risk and a tougher defensive context, the under is the cleaner side.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Kyle Kuzma	2	6	2	0%	0%
Ousmane Dieng	2	3	0	0%	0%
Ryan Rollins	2	2	0	0%	0%
Pete Nance	2	2	0	0%	0%
Myles Turner	2	2	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 17.562%MEDIUM

His season mean is 12.3 points and his last-20 is 15.2, both below 17.5. The last-5 surge to 17.4 is elevated versus season form, so regression risk is real.

reboundsUNDER 4.569%MEDIUM

He averages 3.9 rebounds for the season and 4.1 over the last 10, both right around but still below 4.5. Home mean is 5.1, but season baseline plus moderate variance still favors the under.

assistsOVER 1.558%MEDIUM

His season mean is 1.68 assists and his home mean is 1.79, both above 1.5. The projection is modest because the season standard deviation is 1.27, but the number is low enough to justify a slight over lean.

threesUNDER 2.566%MEDIUM

He averages 1.73 threes per game on the season, below 2.5, even with a recent spike to 2.9 over the last 10 and 4.0 over the last 5. Milwaukee game conditions and the opponent's three suppression make the under the more conservative play.

stealsOVER 0.563%MEDIUM

He averages 0.9 steals on the season and 1.2 over the last 5 and last 10, so clearing 0.5 is a strong baseline. The variance is manageable relative to the low line.

blocksUNDER 0.557%MEDIUM

He averages exactly 0.5 blocks on the season and 0.7 over the last 10, so this is close to a coin flip. Because the standard is modest and the line is at the threshold, the under is slightly safer.

stocksOVER 1.561%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.39, but it rises to 1.9 over the last 10 and 1.8 over the last 5. The low line and improved recent defensive production support a cautious over.

turnoversUNDER 264%MEDIUM

He is at 1.8 turnovers over the last 5, 1.5 over the last 10, and 1.6 over the last 20, which all sit below 2.0. The season baseline suggests he usually stays under this mark.

prUNDER 21.560%MEDIUM

His season points plus rebounds sits at 16.2, while his recent scoring jump is not fully matched by rebounds. With a 21.5 line, he needs either a big scoring night or stronger rebounding than his season average.

paUNDER 18.556%MEDIUM

He combines for 14.0 points plus assists on the season and 17.3 over the last 5, both below or near the market line. The recent scoring burst helps, but the season profile still leans under.

timelineUNDER 17.5 PTS