AI Model:

Brice Sensabaugh▲

UTA · SF

PPG

14.3

RPG

3.0

APG

1.7

L5 PPG

28.8

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+14.5

14.3

28.8

RPG+0.4

3.0

3.4

APG+0.7

1.7

2.4

SPG+0.3

0.7

1.0

BPG+0.5

0.1

0.6

UNDER 22.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

22.5

NOP

2026-02-28

2026-02-28 vs NOP: 10 pts

DEN

2026-03-02

2026-03-02 vs DEN: 8 pts

PHI

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs PHI: 7 pts

WAS

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs WAS: 14 pts

MIL

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs MIL: 17 pts

GSW

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs GSW: 21 pts

NYK

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs NYK: 29 pts

POR

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs POR: 31 pts

SAC

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs SAC: 22 pts

MIN

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs MIN: 41 pts

Over 22.5

Under 22.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 22.5DRAFTKINGS

68%

REB

UNDER 3.5DRAFTKINGS

62%

AST

OVER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

58%

3PM

OVER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

71%

STL

OVER 0.5DRAFTKINGS

57%

BLK

UNDER 0.5BETMGM

66%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

60%

OVER 2

63%

P+A

UNDER 24.5DRAFTKINGS

72%

P+R

UNDER 26.5DRAFTKINGS

74%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

19.3

17.5

RPG

3.3

3.0

APG

1.9

2.1

vs MIL (H2H)3 games

PPG

13.3

RPG

2.0

APG

1.0

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Naji Marshall	4	10	100%	+39.1%	medium
Jabari Smith Jr.	4	8	80%	+13.4%	medium
Christian Braun	3	7	60%	+13.4%	medium
Kris Dunn	3	7	0%

Sensabaugh’s scoring surge meets a tougher regression spot

Brice Sensabaugh has been red-hot, averaging 28.8 PPG over his last 5 games compared with 14.3 PPG for the season, but that kind of spike usually cools off. He’s also playing heavier minutes recently at 29.6 MPG versus 23.1 MPG season-long, which supports his production, though his 3.6 turnovers per game over the last 5 show some efficiency risk. The matchup is not ideal for runaway scoring: Utah’s opponent defense data shows a 116.21 defensive rating and 0.193 scoring suppression, while his own history vs Milwaukee is only 13.3 PPG across 3 games. With the biggest sportsbook points line sitting at 22.5, the projection leans closer to his season baseline than his recent heater.

Stat Trends

PPG

28.8(↑ from 14.3)

RPG

3.4(→ from 3.0)

APG

2.4(↑ from 1.7)

Stocks

1.6(↑ from 0.9)

Key Matchup

He has no specific defender matchup data beyond the listed key defenders, so there is no specific defender matchup data to anchor on. The team context shows Milwaukee with a 116.21 defensive rating and 0.193 scoring suppression, which is a mild drag on scoring upside.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend
Brice Sensabaugh▼	Points	22.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	1/2	70%
Brice Sensabaugh▼	Rebounds	3.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	2/2	60%
Brice Sensabaugh▼	Assists	1.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	70%
Brice Sensabaugh▼	3PM	2.5	OVER	71%HIGH	2/2	50%
Brice Sensabaugh▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	—	80%
Brice Sensabaugh▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	—	80%
Brice Sensabaugh▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	—	70%
Brice Sensabaugh▼	Turnovers	2	OVER	63%MEDIUM	—	40%
Brice Sensabaugh▼	P+A	24.5	UNDER	72%HIGH	2/2	70%
Brice Sensabaugh▼	P+R	26.5	UNDER	74%HIGH	1/2	70%

ML Scout Analysis

PTS23.5UNDER18%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (12/20)8/2040%+9.0% edge▼

PRA32.5UNDER31%gbt_praWeak Leg (11/20)5/2025%+21.5% edgeConfidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

REB4.5UNDER43%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 2x4/2020%+27.0% edgeConfidence moved LOW to HIGH▼

AST3.5UNDER12%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 4x7/2035%+8.5% edgePrediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Value edge shifted +0.230▼

3PM3.5UNDER14%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (10/20)6/2030%+11.3% edge▼

P+R24.5UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (10/20)9/2045%▼

P+A24UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 3x9/2045%▼

R+A6.5UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 4x9/2045%▼

Featured Pick

Brice Sensabaugh

Points UNDER 22.5MEDIUM

The market is pricing in his recent heater, but his season average is only 14.3 PPG and his head-to-head mark vs Milwaukee is 13.3 PPG across 3 games. With regression risk high and the stronger play profile pointing below the inflated line, the under is the best bet.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Kyle Kuzma	1	1	0	0%	0%
Ousmane Dieng	1	1	2	100%	100%
Giannis Antetokounmpo	1	1	0	0%	0%
Jericho Sims	1	1	0	0%	0%
Bobby Portis	1	1	4	100%	100%

pointsUNDER 22.568%MEDIUM

His season scoring average is 14.3 PPG, and even his last 10 is 20.0 PPG, still below the 22.5 line. The last 5 at 28.8 PPG is well above season baseline, so regression risk is high.

reboundsUNDER 3.562%MEDIUM

He averages 3.0 RPG on the season and 3.2 RPG over the last 10, both just under this line. Recent form does not create enough margin to trust the over.

assistsOVER 1.558%MEDIUM

He averages 1.72 APG for the season and 2.3 APG over the last 10, which clears this low line. The recent volume is enough to support a modest over despite the variance.

threesOVER 2.571%HIGH

He averages 2.09 made threes per game on the season and 3.0 over the last 10, with 2.8 over the last 20. Given the volume, this line is reachable even with some regression.

stealsOVER 0.557%MEDIUM

He averages 0.7 SPG on the season and 1.0 SPG over the last 10, so a single steal is a realistic target. The variance is moderate, so confidence stays limited.

blocksUNDER 0.566%MEDIUM

He averages only 0.1 BPG on the season and 0.3 BPG over the last 10. Even with a few recent blocks, this remains a low-probability over.

stocksUNDER 1.560%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 0.86 and his last 5 is 1.6, but the combined steal/block profile is still volatile. With only 0.86 season mean and high variance, the under is safer.

turnoversOVER 263%MEDIUM

He has 3.6 turnovers per game over the last 5 and 2.3 over the last 10, both above this projected line. The recent usage spike makes turnovers a live over despite the risk.

paUNDER 24.572%HIGH

He combines for 16.0 points and assists per game on the season, far below this combo line. Even with a hot scoring stretch, the season baseline keeps this under attractive.

prUNDER 26.574%HIGH

His season points plus rebounds profile is 17.3 per game, well below 26.5. This is a combo prop with extra variance, and the season number points strongly under.

timelineUNDER 22.5 PTS