AI Model:

Cody Williams▲

UTA · SG

PPG

6.9

RPG

2.8

APG

1.4

L5 PPG

16.4

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+9.5

6.9

16.4

RPG+2.0

2.8

4.8

APG+3.4

1.4

4.8

SPG-0.1

0.7

0.6

BPG+0.2

0.4

0.6

UNDER 12.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

12.5

NOP

2026-02-28

2026-02-28 vs NOP: 4 pts

DEN

2026-03-02

2026-03-02 vs DEN: 3 pts

PHI

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs PHI: 9 pts

WAS

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs WAS: 13 pts

MIL

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs MIL: 13 pts

GSW

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs GSW: 12 pts

NYK

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs NYK: 10 pts

POR

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs POR: 19 pts

SAC

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs SAC: 34 pts

MIN

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs MIN: 7 pts

Over 12.5

Under 12.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 12.5DRAFTKINGS

66%

REB

UNDER 4.5DRAFTKINGS

60%

AST

UNDER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

63%

3PM

UNDER 0.5

58%

STL

OVER 0.5

55%

BLK

UNDER 0.5BETMGM

56%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

54%

OVER 2

57%

P+R

UNDER 17.5DRAFTKINGS

61%

P+A

UNDER 15.5DRAFTKINGS

59%

R+A

UNDER 7.5DRAFTKINGS

58%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

7.6

10.2

RPG

2.6

4.8

APG

3.0

2.4

vs MIL (H2H)2 games

PPG

9.5

RPG

6.5

APG

1.5

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
James Harden	3	11	69%	+15.2%	medium
Jamal Murray	3	10	78%	+8.3%	medium
Stephon Castle	3	8	45%	-7.3%	medium
Kevin Durant	2	8	50%

Minutes surge makes Cody Williams a live rebound-and-stocks play, but scoring remains volatile

Cody Williams has clearly been trending up: his last 5 are 16.4 PPG, 4.8 RPG, and 4.8 APG across 36.0 MPG, all well above his season marks of 6.9 PPG, 2.8 RPG, and 1.4 APG. The catch is regression risk, since that last-5 scoring spike is far above his season average and his season-long three-point volume is only 0.43 made threes per game on 24.0% shooting. This matchup also comes with no specific defender matchup data, so the cleanest edge comes from role/minutes rather than a targeted defensive read. With Utah at home on a back-to-back and Williams already showing stronger recent usage, the safest leans are on peripheral stats rather than a big points over.

Stat Trends

PPG

16.4(↑ from 6.9)

RPG

4.8(↑ from 2.8)

APG

4.8(↑ from 1.4)

Stocks

1.2(→ from 1.1)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data is available. Milwaukee's defense context shows a 116.21 defensive rating and a 0.193 scoring suppression mark, which adds some resistance to scoring upside.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Cody Williams▼	Points	12.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	23	✗
Cody Williams▼	Rebounds	4.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	3	✓
Cody Williams▼	Assists	2.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	5	✗
Cody Williams▼	3PM	0.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	—	40%	1	✗
Cody Williams▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	1	✓
Cody Williams▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	56%MEDIUM	—	60%	0	✓
Cody Williams▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	54%MEDIUM	—	70%	1	✓
Cody Williams▼	Turnovers	2	OVER	57%MEDIUM	—	30%	1	✗
Cody Williams▼	P+R	17.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	26	✗
Cody Williams▼	P+A	15.5	UNDER	59%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	28	✗
Cody Williams▼	R+A	7.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	8	✗

ML Scout Analysis

PTS16.5UNDER12%logisticDecent Leg (13/20)7/2035%+12.8% edgeLine moved +1.0; Scorecard changed +4.0▼

REB4.5UNDER1%logisticDecent Leg (12/20)7/2035%+16.5% edgePrediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Value edge shifted +0.370; Odds moved materially▼

AST3.5OVER20%logisticDecent Leg (12/20)OVER 4x10/2050%Scorecard changed +3.0▼

PRA25.5UNDER9%logisticDecent Leg (12/20)8/2040%+7.4% edgeLine moved +1.0; Scorecard changed +2.0▼

R+A8OVER0%logisticWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 4x10/2050%Scorecard changed +3.0▼

P+R18.5UNDER0%logisticWeak Leg (11/20)8/2040%Scorecard changed +3.0▼

P+A18.5UNDER0%logisticWeak Leg (11/20)9/2045%Scorecard changed +3.0▼

Featured Pick

Cody Williams

Points UNDER 12.5HIGH

The season mean is 6.9 PPG, and even with the recent surge to 16.4 PPG over the last 5, that is a large regression gap. With the line sitting at 12.5 and the matchup data not offering a clear defensive target, the under is the most stable angle.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Ousmane Dieng	2	5	3	50%	75%
Ryan Rollins	2	4	5	67%	83%
AJ Green	2	3	0	0%	0%
Gary Trent Jr.	2	2	0	0%	0%
Jericho Sims	2	2	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 12.566%MEDIUM

His season mean is 6.91 PPG, and the recent 16.4 PPG burst is a big step above that level. The 12.5 line sits well above season output, so regression is a concern even with the recent minutes spike.

reboundsUNDER 4.560%MEDIUM

He averages 2.76 RPG on the season and 2.8 RPG overall, which is below this number. The last 5 at 4.8 RPG is encouraging, but the combo of higher variance and a season baseline under the line makes the under safer.

assistsUNDER 2.563%MEDIUM

His season mean is just 1.44 APG, and even the home mean is only 1.52. The last 5 at 4.8 APG is a clear spike, but the season profile still points below 2.5.

threesUNDER 0.558%MEDIUM

He averages only 0.43 made threes per game on the season and 0.43 is below a half make threshold. Recent volume has improved, but the season-long shooting profile still leans under.

stealsOVER 0.555%MEDIUM

He averages 0.7 steals per game on the season and 0.7 is above the 0.5 threshold. The recent 10 at 0.9 and season home/away rates near or above 1.0 support a modest over lean.

blocksUNDER 0.556%MEDIUM

His season block rate is 0.4 per game, which is below 0.5. The recent 5 showing 0.6 is not enough to outweigh the lower season baseline.

stocksUNDER 1.554%MEDIUM

He averages 1.11 stocks per game on the season and 1.3 over the last 5. That is close, but still not enough to confidently project over 1.5 given the variance in the category.

turnoversOVER 257%MEDIUM

He has 1.4 turnovers per game on the season, but 2.6 over the last 5 and 1.7 over the last 10. The recent usage jump makes 2.0 reachable.

prUNDER 17.561%MEDIUM

His season points plus rebounds profile is 9.67 combined from the listed season means, well below this line. The last 5 is hotter, but combo props carry more variance and the season baseline is still light.

paUNDER 15.559%MEDIUM

Season points plus assists are 8.35 by the provided means, far below the posted number. The recent assist spike helps, but this remains a high combo line relative to his overall production.

raUNDER 7.558%MEDIUM

His season rebounds plus assists average is 4.2, and even his recent form is only 9.6 combined across the last 5. The line is aggressive for a player whose season-long base is much lower.

timelineUNDER 12.5 PTS