AI Model:

Isaiah Collier—

UTA · PG

PPG

11.7

RPG

2.5

APG

7.2

L5 PPG

17.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+5.9

11.7

17.6

RPG+0.7

2.5

3.2

APG-0.4

7.2

6.8

SPG+0.1

1.1

1.2

BPG+0.1

0.3

0.4

UNDER 16.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

16.5

HOU

2026-02-23

2026-02-23 vs HOU: 17 pts

NOP

2026-02-26

2026-02-26 vs NOP: 11 pts

NOP

2026-02-28

2026-02-28 vs NOP: 21 pts

DEN

2026-03-02

2026-03-02 vs DEN: 10 pts

PHI

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs PHI: 18 pts

WAS

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs WAS: 27 pts

NYK

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs NYK: 9 pts

POR

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs POR: 17 pts

SAC

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs SAC: 21 pts

MIN

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs MIN: 14 pts

Over 16.5

Under 16.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 16.5DRAFTKINGS

68%

REB

OVER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

56%

AST

UNDER 7.5DRAFTKINGS

60%

STL

UNDER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

63%

BLK

UNDER 0.5BETMGM

72%

OVER 2.5

58%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

55%

P+A

UNDER 24.5DRAFTKINGS

61%

P+R

UNDER 19.5DRAFTKINGS

64%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

12.5

19.3

RPG

2.0

3.2

APG

7.6

8.4

vs MIL (H2H)2 games

PPG

6.0

RPG

1.0

APG

4.5

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Sidy Cissoko	3	9	88%	+25.3%	medium
Ryan Nembhard	4	8	43%	-21.1%	medium
Donte DiVincenzo	4	7	42%	-16.4%	medium
Jake LaRavia	3	7	58%

Collier’s passing volume keeps him live, but points look capped versus his own market

Isaiah Collier is in solid recent form, with 16.5 PPG over his last 10 and 17.6 PPG over his last 5, but that sits well above his 11.7 season average and suggests some regression risk. His assists remain the steadiest category at 7.2 per game on the season and 6.2 over the last 10, while his home scoring is only 12.5 PPG compared to 19.3 away. With Utah at home and on a back-to-back, the minutes and efficiency upside look more fragile, making the stronger angle more about his playmaking than his scoring ceiling.

Stat Trends

PPG

17.6(↑ from 11.7)

APG

6.8(→ from 7.2)

RPG

3.2(↑ from 2.5)

SPG

1.2(→ from 1.1)

Key Matchup

The only defender data provided shows no specific defender matchup data beyond limited minutes for Taurean Prince and Ryan Rollins, so there is no reliable individual matchup edge to isolate. The broader opponent context is that Milwaukee's listed scoring suppression is 0.193, which supports caution on overs.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend
Isaiah Collier▼	Points	16.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	2/2	40%
Isaiah Collier▼	Rebounds	2.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	1/2	50%
Isaiah Collier▼	Assists	7.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	80%
Isaiah Collier▼	Steals	1.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	2/2	50%
Isaiah Collier▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	72%HIGH	—	60%
Isaiah Collier▼	Turnovers	2.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	—	40%
Isaiah Collier▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	—	60%
Isaiah Collier▼	P+A	24.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	2/2	70%
Isaiah Collier▼	P+R	19.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	2/2	60%

ML Scout Analysis

P+R19.5UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (11/20)9/2045%▼

P+A24.5UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x9/2045%▼

R+A11UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 2x7/2035%▼

Featured Pick

Isaiah Collier

Points UNDER 16.5HIGH

This is the cleanest fade because the line is set well above his 11.7 season scoring average and his 12.5 home scoring average. His last-5 surge to 17.6 is strong, but it is above his seasonal norm and the back-to-back/home setup adds regression risk.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

pointsUNDER 16.568%MEDIUM

His 11.7 season PPG is far below the 16.5 line, and his last-5 spike to 17.6 is 50% above season average, a classic regression spot. Utah's home scoring mark is just 12.5 PPG, and the back-to-back adds another reason to expect a lower scoring outcome.

reboundsOVER 2.556%MEDIUM

He averages 2.5 rebounds on the season and 2.3 over the last 10, so this is right around his baseline. The line is modest enough that a normal starter workload can get him there, but the low variance keeps confidence moderate.

assistsUNDER 7.560%MEDIUM

Collier's season mean is 7.2 assists and his last-10 mean is 6.2, both slightly below 7.5. The assist profile is stable, but the recent dip plus the home context makes the under the cleaner side.

stealsUNDER 1.563%MEDIUM

He is at 1.1 steals per game for the season and 1.4 over the last 10, which still does not support a 1.5 line with high confidence. His steals trend is useful, but the edge is not strong enough to pay off an over at this number.

blocksUNDER 0.572%HIGH

His season average is only 0.3 blocks and his recent rates sit at 0.4, so clearing 0.5 is not the most likely outcome. This is a low-variance under based on his role and shot-blocking profile.

turnoversOVER 2.558%MEDIUM

He has 2.6 turnovers over the last 5 and 2.4 over the last 10, with 3.0 over the last 20, all pointing above a 2.5 expectation. The playmaking load creates turnover risk even if the scoring efficiency dips.

stocksOVER 1.555%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.48, last-10 is 1.8, and last-20 is 2.3, so he is live to clear 1.5. The variance is high, so this is more of a lean than a strong play.

paUNDER 24.561%MEDIUM

Season points plus assists would be 18.9, well below 24.5, and even recent form at 23.7 (16.5 PPG plus 7.2 APG last 10) still sits short. This combo prop is inflated relative to his season baseline.

prUNDER 19.564%MEDIUM

His season points-plus-rebounds profile is 14.2, which is far below 19.5. The recent scoring bump helps, but not enough to justify taking the over at this line.

timelineUNDER 16.5 PTS