AI Model:

Kevin Porter Jr.▲

MIL · PG

PPG

17.4

RPG

5.2

APG

7.4

L5 PPG

13.4

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-4.0

17.4

13.4

RPG+0.2

5.2

5.4

APG-1.8

7.4

5.6

SPG-0.4

2.2

1.8

BPG+0.1

0.5

0.6

UNDER 22.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

22.5

NOP

2026-02-20

2026-02-20 vs NOP: 25 pts

TOR

2026-02-22

2026-02-22 vs TOR: 21 pts

MIA

2026-02-24

2026-02-24 vs MIA: 32 pts

CLE

2026-02-25

2026-02-25 vs CLE: 20 pts

NYK

2026-02-27

2026-02-27 vs NYK: 11 pts

CHI

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs CHI: 10 pts

BOS

2026-03-02

2026-03-02 vs BOS: 8 pts

MIA

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs MIA: 6 pts

ATL

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs ATL: 18 pts

CLE

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs CLE: 25 pts

Over 22.5

Under 22.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 22.5DRAFTKINGS

78%

REB

UNDER 5.5DRAFTKINGS

61%

AST

UNDER 7.5DRAFTKINGS

67%

3PM

UNDER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

72%

STL

OVER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

66%

BLK

OVER 0.5DRAFTKINGS

58%

STL+BLK

UNDER 3.5

64%

OVER 2.5

57%

PRA

UNDER 32.5DRAFTKINGS

63%

P+A

UNDER 26.5DRAFTKINGS

60%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

19.0

14.4

RPG

5.2

5.5

APG

7.7

6.4

vs UTA (H2H)10 games

PPG

16.3

RPG

4.6

APG

6.1

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
CJ McCollum	5	15	53%	-7.6%	medium
Derrick White	2	9	75%	+3.5%	low
Desmond Bane	2	8	70%	+13.5%	low
Andrew Nembhard	2	8	35%

Porter’s volume is healthy, but the recent scoring dip and injury tag push caution

Kevin Porter Jr. is carrying a strong season profile at 17.4 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 7.4 assists over 33.2 MPG, but his last-5 scoring has fallen to 13.4 PPG with 30.8 MPG. The matchup environment is mixed: Utah has a 125.21 defensive rating and a back-to-back, yet his opponent history is modest at 16.3 PPG across 10 games and his recent threes have been only 0.6 per game. He is also listed as Out with a right knee injury, so any prop angle should be treated as highly contingent on status.

Stat Trends

PPG

13.4(↓ from 17.4)

APG

5.6(↓ from 7.4)

RPG

5.4(→ from 5.2)

SPG

1.8(↓ from 2.2)

Key Matchup

Utah’s opponent defense data shows a 125.21 defensive rating, with a back-to-back and 100 pace. The key defender list is not usable for a specific matchup edge, so there is no specific defender matchup data.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend
Kevin Porter Jr.▼	Points	22.5	UNDER	78%HIGH	2/2	70%
Kevin Porter Jr.▼	Rebounds	5.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	2/2	40%
Kevin Porter Jr.▼	Assists	7.5	UNDER	67%MEDIUM	2/2	70%
Kevin Porter Jr.▼	3PM	1.5	UNDER	72%HIGH	—	90%
Kevin Porter Jr.▼	Steals	1.5	OVER	66%MEDIUM	1/2	70%
Kevin Porter Jr.▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	—	60%
Kevin Porter Jr.▼	STL+BLK	3.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	—	90%
Kevin Porter Jr.▼	Turnovers	2.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	—	50%
Kevin Porter Jr.▼	PRA	32.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	2/2	50%
Kevin Porter Jr.▼	P+A	26.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	1/2	60%

ML Scout Analysis

P+R22OVER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 2x11/2055%▼

P+A23.5OVER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 2x11/2055%▼

R+A12.5OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 2x10/2050%▼

Featured Pick

Kevin Porter Jr.

Points UNDER 22.5HIGH

This number is well above his season average of 17.4 and far above his last-5 at 13.4. The injury status listed as Out makes the under the strongest read if the market is still posting a points line.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

pointsUNDER 22.578%HIGH

His season mean is 17.4 PPG and his last-5 is only 13.4, well below this line. With the current injury status listed as Out, the under is the only logical lean if he were somehow active.

reboundsUNDER 5.561%MEDIUM

He averages 5.2 rebounds on the season and 5.2 over the last 10, so this line is slightly above his baseline. The recent form is stable, but not enough to justify an over.

assistsUNDER 7.567%MEDIUM

His season average is 7.4 assists and his recent mean is 6.7, so 7.5 is a touch rich. He also has a 6.1 assists average in 10 games vs this opponent, which supports the under.

threesUNDER 1.572%HIGH

He is at 1.21 made threes per game for the season but only 0.6 over the last 10 and 0.6 over the last 5. That recent drop makes 1.5 a favorable under.

stealsOVER 1.566%MEDIUM

He averages 2.2 steals on the season, 2.2 over the last 10, and 1.8 over the last 5, all comfortably above 1.5. This is one of the few categories where his floor remains strong.

blocksOVER 0.558%MEDIUM

He averages exactly 0.5 blocks per game on the season and 0.7 over the last 10. The number is low enough that one block clears it.

stocksUNDER 3.564%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 2.68 and recent is 2.9, both below a typical 3.5 threshold. Even with strong defensive event production, this is still a variance-heavy under.

turnoversOVER 2.557%MEDIUM

He is at 2.5 turnovers per game on the last 20 and 2.0 over the last 10, with 2.2 over the last 5. This is a reasonable over if he plays his usual ball-handling load.

praUNDER 32.563%MEDIUM

His season combined average from points, rebounds, and assists sits around 30.0, while his recent points have cooled. Combo props add volatility, so the under is the safer side.

paUNDER 26.560%MEDIUM

His season points-plus-assists profile is about 24.8 using the provided season means, and his recent assist trend is down. This line is above his baseline and does not leave much margin for an over.

timelineUNDER 22.5 PTS