Last 10 games
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alperen Sengun | 4 | 14 | 79% | +29.2% | medium |
| Dwight Powell | 3 | 13 | 80% | +30.6% | medium |
| Julius Randle | 4 | 11 | 50% | +0.6% | medium |
| Nic Claxton | 2 | 10 | 29% |
Kyle Filipowski is coming in with stronger recent production than his season baseline, averaging 13.2 points, 8.4 rebounds, and 5.0 assists over his last 5 games versus season marks of 10.6, 7.0, and 2.4. His minutes have also climbed to 27.0 in the last 5 from 23.0 on the season, but his overall trend is still labeled down and his last game was only 7 points and 3 rebounds. The season-long profile and head-to-head sample against Milwaukee are more modest, with just 6.7 points and 6.3 rebounds across 3 games versus this opponent. Utah is at home, which helps slightly, but the safest angle is to stay near his season mean rather than chase the recent spike.
Utah’s opponent context shows a 116.21 defensive rating allowed, pace of 100, and scoring suppression of 0.193, which is not a strong setup for pushing totals. There is no specific defender matchup data beyond the listed defenders, so the head-to-head angle should be weighted more than any individual matchup assumption.
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kyle Filipowski▼ | Points | 20.5 | UNDER | 81%HIGH | 2/2 | 100% | 16 | ✓ |
Kyle Filipowski▼ | Rebounds | 8.5 | UNDER | 60%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 60% | 8 | ✓ |
Kyle Filipowski▼ | Assists | 2.5 | OVER | 56%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 80% | 1 | ✗ |
Kyle Filipowski▼ | 3PM | 1.5 | UNDER | 58%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 70% | 1 | ✓ |
Kyle Filipowski▼ | Steals | 1.5 | UNDER | 72%HIGH | 1/2 | 70% | 0 | ✓ |
Kyle Filipowski▼ | Blocks | 0.5 | OVER | 53%MEDIUM | — | 70% | 0 | ✗ |
Kyle Filipowski▼ | STL+BLK | 1.5 | OVER | 57%MEDIUM | — | 70% | 0 | ✗ |
Kyle Filipowski▼ | Turnovers | 2 | OVER | 55%MEDIUM | — | 30% | 4 | ✓ |
Kyle Filipowski▼ | P+R | 24.5 | UNDER | 64%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 60% | 24 | ✓ |
Kyle Filipowski▼ | P+A | 17.5 | OVER | 52%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 50% | 17 | ✗ |
This is the cleanest side because the season mean is 10.58 points, the last 20 is 13.2, and his 3-game average vs this opponent is only 6.67. Even with improved recent minutes and usage, 20.5 sits far above both his season profile and opponent history.
| low |
| Nikola Vučević | 2 | 9 | 72% | +19.4% | low |
| Defender | Games | Min | PTS | FG% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Myles Turner | 2 | 5 | 3 | 33% | 50% |
| Kyle Kuzma | 2 | 3 | 9 | 43% | 50% |
| Jericho Sims | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Bobby Portis | 2 | 3 | 2 | 33% | 33% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | 1 | 2 | 4 | 67% | 67% |
The season mean is 10.58 points and the last 20 is 13.2, both well below 20.5. His vs_opponent scoring is only 6.67 points in 3 games, making the over a big ask.
He averages 6.95 rebounds on the season and 7.12 at home, which is below 8.5. Recent form is better at 8.7 over the last 10, but that is still a modest overshoot relative to the book line.
His season assist average is 2.42, but the last 10 is 4.0 and the last 5 is 5.0, showing a strong recent passing spike. Because the season mean is still close to the line, confidence stays moderate.
He averages 0.89 threes on the season and 0.97 at home, both below 1.5. Recent form at 1.2 over the last 5 is improved, but not enough to make the over a strong play.
His season steals average is exactly 1.0, with 1.4 over the last 5 and 1.7 away, but 1.5 is still a high threshold. The standard deviation profile is not provided here, so this stays a safer under.
He averages 0.5 blocks on the season and 0.9 over the last 10, so the over is in play. The line is low, but his recent blocks have been steady enough to justify a slight lean.
His season stocks average is 1.5, last 10 is 2.1, and last 5 is 2.4, all supporting a playable over. This is still a combo-style stat with more variance, so confidence is kept moderate.
He is at 2.0 turnovers over the last 10 and 2.2 over the last 5, with season turnover volume also trending meaningful. The recent usage bump makes 2.0 a reasonable over target.
His season points plus rebounds profile is 17.53 using 10.58 points and 6.95 rebounds, which is below 24.5. Even the recent lift does not fully bridge that gap.
His season points plus assists is 13.00, but the last 5 is 18.2, right around the market number. That makes the over possible, though the season baseline keeps confidence low.