AI Model:

Kyle Filipowski▼

UTA · C

PPG

10.6

RPG

7.0

APG

2.4

L5 PPG

13.2

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+2.6

10.6

13.2

RPG+1.4

7.0

8.4

APG+2.6

2.4

5.0

SPG+0.4

1.0

1.4

BPG+0.5

0.5

1.0

UNDER 20.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

20.5

NOP

2026-02-26

2026-02-26 vs NOP: 13 pts

NOP

2026-02-28

2026-02-28 vs NOP: 12 pts

DEN

2026-03-02

2026-03-02 vs DEN: 19 pts

PHI

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs PHI: 6 pts

WAS

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs WAS: 20 pts

MIL

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs MIL: 14 pts

GSW

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs GSW: 19 pts

NYK

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs NYK: 15 pts

POR

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs POR: 11 pts

MIN

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs MIN: 7 pts

Over 20.5

Under 20.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 20.5FANDUEL

81%

REB

UNDER 8.5FANDUEL

60%

AST

OVER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

56%

3PM

UNDER 1.5

58%

STL

UNDER 1.5FANDUEL

72%

BLK

OVER 0.5BETMGM

53%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

57%

OVER 2

55%

P+R

UNDER 24.5FANDUEL

64%

P+A

OVER 17.5FANDUEL

52%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

13.9

12.8

RPG

8.1

9.2

APG

3.1

3.2

vs MIL (H2H)3 games

PPG

6.7

RPG

6.3

APG

3.0

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Alperen Sengun	4	14	79%	+29.2%	medium
Dwight Powell	3	13	80%	+30.6%	medium
Julius Randle	4	11	50%	+0.6%	medium
Nic Claxton	2	10	29%

Filipowski’s recent usage is real, but the matchup and market still lean cautious

Kyle Filipowski is coming in with stronger recent production than his season baseline, averaging 13.2 points, 8.4 rebounds, and 5.0 assists over his last 5 games versus season marks of 10.6, 7.0, and 2.4. His minutes have also climbed to 27.0 in the last 5 from 23.0 on the season, but his overall trend is still labeled down and his last game was only 7 points and 3 rebounds. The season-long profile and head-to-head sample against Milwaukee are more modest, with just 6.7 points and 6.3 rebounds across 3 games versus this opponent. Utah is at home, which helps slightly, but the safest angle is to stay near his season mean rather than chase the recent spike.

Stat Trends

PPG

13.2(↑ from 10.6)

RPG

8.4(↑ from 7.0)

APG

5.0(↑ from 2.4)

Key Matchup

Utah’s opponent context shows a 116.21 defensive rating allowed, pace of 100, and scoring suppression of 0.193, which is not a strong setup for pushing totals. There is no specific defender matchup data beyond the listed defenders, so the head-to-head angle should be weighted more than any individual matchup assumption.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Kyle Filipowski▼	Points	20.5	UNDER	81%HIGH	2/2	100%	16	✓
Kyle Filipowski▼	Rebounds	8.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	8	✓
Kyle Filipowski▼	Assists	2.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	2/2	80%	1	✗
Kyle Filipowski▼	3PM	1.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	1	✓
Kyle Filipowski▼	Steals	1.5	UNDER	72%HIGH	1/2	70%	0	✓
Kyle Filipowski▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	53%MEDIUM	—	70%	0	✗
Kyle Filipowski▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	—	70%	0	✗
Kyle Filipowski▼	Turnovers	2	OVER	55%MEDIUM	—	30%	4	✓
Kyle Filipowski▼	P+R	24.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	24	✓
Kyle Filipowski▼	P+A	17.5	OVER	52%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	17	✗

ML Scout Analysis

PTS18.5UNDER0%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (13/20)8/2040%+9.0% edge▼

AST3.5OVER4%gbt_assistsDecent Leg (13/20)12/2060%+9.0% edge▼

REB9.5UNDER24%gbt_reboundsDecent Leg (12/20)7/2035%+13.5% edgeConfidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

PRA32.5UNDER13%gbt_praDecent Leg (12/20)8/2040%+5.9% edge▼

P+A19.5OVER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (12/20)10/2050%▼

P+R24.5UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (11/20)9/2045%▼

3PM1.5UNDER30%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 2x6/2030%+7.9% edgeConfidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

R+A12.5UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (10/20)9/2045%▼

Featured Pick

Kyle Filipowski

Points UNDER 20.5HIGH

This is the cleanest side because the season mean is 10.58 points, the last 20 is 13.2, and his 3-game average vs this opponent is only 6.67. Even with improved recent minutes and usage, 20.5 sits far above both his season profile and opponent history.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Myles Turner	2	5	3	33%	50%
Kyle Kuzma	2	3	9	43%	50%
Jericho Sims	2	3	0	0%	0%
Bobby Portis	2	3	2	33%	33%
Giannis Antetokounmpo	1	2	4	67%	67%

pointsUNDER 20.581%HIGH

The season mean is 10.58 points and the last 20 is 13.2, both well below 20.5. His vs_opponent scoring is only 6.67 points in 3 games, making the over a big ask.

reboundsUNDER 8.560%MEDIUM

He averages 6.95 rebounds on the season and 7.12 at home, which is below 8.5. Recent form is better at 8.7 over the last 10, but that is still a modest overshoot relative to the book line.

assistsOVER 2.556%MEDIUM

His season assist average is 2.42, but the last 10 is 4.0 and the last 5 is 5.0, showing a strong recent passing spike. Because the season mean is still close to the line, confidence stays moderate.

threesUNDER 1.558%MEDIUM

He averages 0.89 threes on the season and 0.97 at home, both below 1.5. Recent form at 1.2 over the last 5 is improved, but not enough to make the over a strong play.

stealsUNDER 1.572%HIGH

His season steals average is exactly 1.0, with 1.4 over the last 5 and 1.7 away, but 1.5 is still a high threshold. The standard deviation profile is not provided here, so this stays a safer under.

blocksOVER 0.553%MEDIUM

He averages 0.5 blocks on the season and 0.9 over the last 10, so the over is in play. The line is low, but his recent blocks have been steady enough to justify a slight lean.

stocksOVER 1.557%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.5, last 10 is 2.1, and last 5 is 2.4, all supporting a playable over. This is still a combo-style stat with more variance, so confidence is kept moderate.

turnoversOVER 255%MEDIUM

He is at 2.0 turnovers over the last 10 and 2.2 over the last 5, with season turnover volume also trending meaningful. The recent usage bump makes 2.0 a reasonable over target.

prUNDER 24.564%MEDIUM

His season points plus rebounds profile is 17.53 using 10.58 points and 6.95 rebounds, which is below 24.5. Even the recent lift does not fully bridge that gap.

paOVER 17.552%MEDIUM

His season points plus assists is 13.00, but the last 5 is 18.2, right around the market number. That makes the over possible, though the season baseline keeps confidence low.

timelineUNDER 20.5 PTS