Last 10 games
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Sarr | 3 | 19 | 36% | -7.4% | medium |
| Moussa Diabaté | 3 | 19 | 75% | +31.2% | medium |
| Wendell Carter Jr. | 3 | 16 | 14% | -29.5% | medium |
| Jarrett Allen | 3 | 14 | 67% |
Turner’s season production sits at 12.2 PPG, 5.4 RPG, and 1.5 APG, but his recent form is down with 10.6 PPG over the last 5 and 10.1 PPG over the last 10. His minutes have also dipped from a season 27.4 MPG to 23.6 MPG in the last 10, which lowers the ceiling on his counting stats. Against Utah, the matchup context is mixed: the Jazz have a 125.21 defensive rating and this is a back-to-back for Utah, but Turner's recent scoring trend and reduced minutes point to a more conservative projection overall. The best clear value is on threes, where his season 2.13 makes and recent 2.1 are strong versus a 1.5 line edge.
Utah’s defense has a 125.21 defensive rating and this game comes with the Jazz on a back-to-back, but no specific defender matchup data is available. Turner’s prior head-to-head sample against Utah is 14.75 PPG over 8 games, which is better than his season scoring baseline.
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Myles Turner▼ | Points | 10.5 | OVER | 62%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 30% | 3 | ✗ |
Myles Turner▼ | Rebounds | 5.5 | UNDER | 67%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 70% | 3 | ✓ |
Myles Turner▼ | Assists | 1.5 | OVER | 54%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 50% | 1 | ✗ |
Myles Turner▼ | 3PM | 1.5 | OVER | 74%HIGH | 1/2 | 50% | 1 | ✗ |
Myles Turner▼ | Blocks | 1.5 | UNDER | 64%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 90% | 0 | ✓ |
Myles Turner▼ | STL+BLK | 1.5 | OVER | 56%MEDIUM | — | 40% | 1 | ✗ |
Myles Turner▼ | Turnovers | 1.5 | OVER | 58%MEDIUM | — | 40% | 4 | ✓ |
Myles Turner▼ | P+R | 17.5 | UNDER | 68%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 80% | 6 | ✓ |
Myles Turner▼ | R+A | 7.5 | UNDER | 66%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 80% | 4 | ✓ |
This is the strongest combination of role, form, and pricing. Turner is averaging 2.13 made threes on the season, 2.1 over the last 5, and the value data shows a positive edge on the over at 1.5 with a 7.5% edge and 11.51 EV per 100.
| medium |
| Jakob Poeltl | 3 | 13 | 75% | +31.2% | medium |
| Defender | Games | Min | PTS | FG% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Filipowski | 2 | 7 | 15 | 50% | 56% |
| Oscar Tshiebwe | 2 | 4 | 4 | 100% | 100% |
| Andersson Garcia | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Keyonte George | 1 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 33% |
| Ace Bailey | 2 | 1 | 2 | 100% | 100% |
His season mean is 12.2 PPG and his last 20 is 10.9, both above 10.5. The recent dip and lower minutes keep this from being a strong play, but the line is still below his season production.
He is averaging 5.4 RPG for the season and 4.4 RPG over the last 10, while the last 20 is 5.5. With recent minutes at 23.6 and multiple books shading the under, this is the cleaner side.
His season mean is 1.52 APG and last 5 is 1.8, so the line is right around his baseline. This is a low-confidence lean because his assist volume is modest and the standard deviation is high relative to the mean.
Turner averages 2.13 threes per game on the season and 2.1 over the last 5, which is comfortably above 1.5. The value data also shows positive edge on the over at 1.5.
He is at 1.5 blocks per game for the season, but his last 5 is only 0.6 and last 10 is 0.9. That recent drop makes the over hard to trust at a 1.5 line.
His season stocks average is 2.22 and last 20 is 2.2, so the combined defensive production remains meaningful. Recent stocks have cooled to 1.0 over the last 5, which keeps confidence moderate rather than high.
His recent turnover rate is 1.3 to 1.4 and he has 1.4 topg over the last 5. A projected 1.5 line is close enough to his typical range to favor the over slightly.
His season P+R is 17.6, but the last 10 profile is weaker with 10.1 points and 4.4 rebounds, which puts him below this line more often than not. The reduced recent minutes also support the under.
Turner’s season rebounds plus assists combine to 6.9, and the last 10 is only 5.8. This line needs a clear rebound spike or assist outlier, neither of which is supported by the recent data.