Last 10 games
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Harden | 3 | 25 | 53% | -5.6% | medium |
| CJ McCollum | 4 | 21 | 58% | +3.1% | medium |
| Luka Dončić | 3 | 21 | 63% | +11.9% | medium |
| Anthony Edwards | 3 | 20 | 45% |
Jaylen Wells has been playing above his season scoring level recently, with 15.6 PPG over his last 5 and 15.9 over his last 10 compared to 12.8 for the season. He’s also held steady on minutes around 25-26 per game, so the role looks stable. The matchup data is mixed: the Knicks have a strong defensive profile in the provided numbers, and Wells has averaged just 8.7 PPG in 3 games vs this opponent. With the line sitting at 11.5, the stronger read is that his recent heater is already baked in.
The provided opponent defense data shows a 110.6 defensive rating, 100 pace, and negative scoring suppression, which supports a tougher scoring environment. For defender data, there is no specific defender matchup data that can be confidently tied to Wells based on the provided minutes and production splits.
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jaylen Wells▼ | Points | 11.5 | UNDER | 64%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 30% |
Jaylen Wells▼ | Rebounds | 3.5 | UNDER | 68%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 70% |
Jaylen Wells▼ | Assists | 1.5 | OVER | 56%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 40% |
Jaylen Wells▼ | 3PM | 1.5 | OVER | 67%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 100% |
Jaylen Wells▼ | Steals | 0.5 | OVER | 58%MEDIUM | — | 70% |
Jaylen Wells▼ | STL+BLK | 1.5 | UNDER | 60%MEDIUM | — | 50% |
Jaylen Wells▼ | PRA | 14.5 | UNDER | 57%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 20% |
Jaylen Wells▼ | P+A | 12.5 | OVER | 54%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 70% |
This is the cleanest matchup between role and line: Wells averages 1.91 made threes on the season and 2.7 over his last 5, while the line is only 1.5. Unlike the points market, this number is not asking him to beat a season baseline or navigate a strong head-to-head under trend.
| medium |
| Keyonte George | 2 | 17 | 50% | +2.4% | low |
| Defender | Games | Min | PTS | FG% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Brunson | 1 | 7 | 10 | 50% | 63% |
| Mikal Bridges | 1 | 2 | 2 | 25% | 25% |
| OG Anunoby | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Landry Shamet | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Jordan Clarkson | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
His season mean is 12.82, but his vs-opponent scoring is only 8.67 PPG across 3 games, which is a meaningful pull toward the under. Recent form is hotter at 15.6 PPG over the last 5, but that is above season average and more likely to regress than to sustain.
He averages 3.3 rebounds for the season and 3.0 over the last 10, both below the 3.5 line. Even with a 3.6 average over the last 5, the season baseline and recent mean both point slightly under.
His season mean is 1.64 assists, and he is right around the market line. The edge is modest, but the season average supports a small over lean.
He averages 1.91 made threes for the season and 2.7 over the last 5, with recent volume staying high at 2.6 to 2.7 FG3M per game. The sportsbook line of 1.5 is below both his season and recent production.
He is at 0.9 steals per game for the season and 1.0 over the last 5. That clears a 0.5 line, though the variance in steals keeps confidence moderate.
His season stocks average is 1.02, which sits below a 1.5 threshold. Recent form is better at 1.2 to 1.3, but the combo variance is high and the season level still favors the under.
His season PRA baseline is about 17.72 using the provided season means, but combo props are inherently volatile and his points projection is already priced near his range. With recent scoring running above season average, this is a lower-confidence under rather than an over chase.
His season points plus assists profile is about 14.46 using the provided season means, which is above the line. The assist piece is small, so this is mostly a points-driven over with moderate confidence.