AI Model:

Jaylen Wells—

MEM · SF

PPG

12.8

RPG

3.3

APG

1.6

L5 PPG

15.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+2.8

12.8

15.6

RPG+0.3

3.3

3.6

APG-0.6

1.6

1.0

SPG+0.1

0.9

1.0

BPG+0.1

0.1

0.2

UNDER 11.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

11.5

DAL

2026-02-27

2026-02-27 vs DAL: 12 pts

IND

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs IND: 18 pts

MIN

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs MIN: 19 pts

POR

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs POR: 24 pts

LAC

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs LAC: 8 pts

BKN

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs BKN: 17 pts

PHI

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs PHI: 11 pts

DAL

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs DAL: 23 pts

CHI

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs CHI: 16 pts

DEN

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs DEN: 11 pts

Over 11.5

Under 11.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 11.5FANATICS

64%

REB

UNDER 3.5STAKE

68%

AST

OVER 1.5STAKE

56%

3PM

OVER 1.5FANATICS

67%

STL

OVER 0.5STAKE

58%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

60%

PRA

UNDER 14.5STAKE

57%

P+A

OVER 12.5STAKE

54%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

14.7

16.0

RPG

2.9

2.8

APG

1.8

1.3

vs NYK (H2H)3 games

PPG

8.7

RPG

2.3

APG

2.7

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
James Harden	3	25	53%	-5.6%	medium
CJ McCollum	4	21	58%	+3.1%	medium
Luka Dončić	3	21	63%	+11.9%	medium
Anthony Edwards	3	20	45%

Wells’ scoring trend is solid, but the 11.5 points line still leans under

Jaylen Wells has been playing above his season scoring level recently, with 15.6 PPG over his last 5 and 15.9 over his last 10 compared to 12.8 for the season. He’s also held steady on minutes around 25-26 per game, so the role looks stable. The matchup data is mixed: the Knicks have a strong defensive profile in the provided numbers, and Wells has averaged just 8.7 PPG in 3 games vs this opponent. With the line sitting at 11.5, the stronger read is that his recent heater is already baked in.

Stat Trends

PPG

15.6(↑ from 12.8)

RPG

3.6(→ from 3.3)

APG

1.0(↓ from 1.6)

3PM

2.6(↑ from 1.9)

STL+BLK

1.2(↑ from 1.0)

Key Matchup

The provided opponent defense data shows a 110.6 defensive rating, 100 pace, and negative scoring suppression, which supports a tougher scoring environment. For defender data, there is no specific defender matchup data that can be confidently tied to Wells based on the provided minutes and production splits.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend
Jaylen Wells▼	Points	11.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	2/2	30%
Jaylen Wells▼	Rebounds	3.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	2/2	70%
Jaylen Wells▼	Assists	1.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	1/2	40%
Jaylen Wells▼	3PM	1.5	OVER	67%MEDIUM	2/2	100%
Jaylen Wells▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	—	70%
Jaylen Wells▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	—	50%
Jaylen Wells▼	PRA	14.5	UNDER	57%MEDIUM	2/2	20%
Jaylen Wells▼	P+A	12.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	1/2	70%

ML Scout Analysis

R+A4UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 3x8/2040%▼

P+A15OVER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 4x10/2050%▼

P+R16UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 4x8/2040%▼

Featured Pick

Jaylen Wells

Threes OVER 1.5HIGH

This is the cleanest matchup between role and line: Wells averages 1.91 made threes on the season and 2.7 over his last 5, while the line is only 1.5. Unlike the points market, this number is not asking him to beat a season baseline or navigate a strong head-to-head under trend.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Jalen Brunson	1	7	10	50%	63%
Mikal Bridges	1	2	2	25%	25%
OG Anunoby	1	1	0	0%	0%
Landry Shamet	1	1	0	0%	0%
Jordan Clarkson	1	1	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 11.564%MEDIUM

His season mean is 12.82, but his vs-opponent scoring is only 8.67 PPG across 3 games, which is a meaningful pull toward the under. Recent form is hotter at 15.6 PPG over the last 5, but that is above season average and more likely to regress than to sustain.

reboundsUNDER 3.568%MEDIUM

He averages 3.3 rebounds for the season and 3.0 over the last 10, both below the 3.5 line. Even with a 3.6 average over the last 5, the season baseline and recent mean both point slightly under.

assistsOVER 1.556%MEDIUM

His season mean is 1.64 assists, and he is right around the market line. The edge is modest, but the season average supports a small over lean.

threesOVER 1.567%MEDIUM

He averages 1.91 made threes for the season and 2.7 over the last 5, with recent volume staying high at 2.6 to 2.7 FG3M per game. The sportsbook line of 1.5 is below both his season and recent production.

stealsOVER 0.558%MEDIUM

He is at 0.9 steals per game for the season and 1.0 over the last 5. That clears a 0.5 line, though the variance in steals keeps confidence moderate.

stocksUNDER 1.560%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.02, which sits below a 1.5 threshold. Recent form is better at 1.2 to 1.3, but the combo variance is high and the season level still favors the under.

praUNDER 14.557%MEDIUM

His season PRA baseline is about 17.72 using the provided season means, but combo props are inherently volatile and his points projection is already priced near his range. With recent scoring running above season average, this is a lower-confidence under rather than an over chase.

paOVER 12.554%MEDIUM

His season points plus assists profile is about 14.46 using the provided season means, which is above the line. The assist piece is small, so this is mostly a points-driven over with moderate confidence.

timelineUNDER 11.5 PTS