AI Model:

Jose Alvarado▲

NYK · SG

PPG

7.4

RPG

2.5

APG

3.4

L5 PPG

4.8

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-2.6

7.4

4.8

RPG-1.3

2.5

1.2

APG+1.8

3.4

5.2

SPG-0.2

1.0

0.8

BPG-0.1

0.1

0.0

UNDER 7.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

7.5

SAS

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs SAS: 3 pts

TOR

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs TOR: 4 pts

OKC

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs OKC: 3 pts

DEN

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs DEN: 4 pts

LAL

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs LAL: 0 pts

LAC

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs LAC: 0 pts

UTA

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs UTA: 4 pts

IND

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs IND: 0 pts

GSW

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs GSW: 4 pts

IND

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs IND: 16 pts

Over 7.5

Under 7.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 7.5

78%

REB

UNDER 2.5

74%

AST

UNDER 3.5

62%

3PM

UNDER 1.5

77%

STL

UNDER 1

58%

BLK

UNDER 0.5

90%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

66%

OVER 1

55%

P+A

UNDER 10.5

68%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

6.3

6.1

RPG

1.7

2.1

APG

5.0

3.2

vs MEM (H2H)13 games

PPG

9.1

RPG

2.3

APG

3.3

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
De'Aaron Fox	4	10	88%	+33.5%	medium
Reed Sheppard	3	9	138%	+58.5%	medium
Collin Sexton	4	8	75%	+8.5%	medium
Austin Reaves	3	8	85%

Alvarado’s minutes are shaky, making unders the sharper angle

Jose Alvarado’s season line of 7.4 points, 2.5 rebounds, and 3.4 assists looks fine on paper, but his recent production has cooled hard with just 3.8 PPG over the last 10 and 4.8 PPG over the last 5. His minutes have also dipped to 14.2 in the last 10 from 20.4 for the season, which is the biggest drag on his counting stats. Memphis owns a 118.62 defensive rating and comes in on a back-to-back, but the bigger issue is Alvarado’s recent role volatility and low-volume scoring profile. Even with a solid history vs this opponent, the current form points more toward conservative projections than a ceiling game.

Stat Trends

PPG

4.8(↓ from 7.4)

APG

5.2(↑ from 3.4)

RPG

1.2(↓ from 2.5)

Stocks

0.8(↓ from 1.1)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data should be leaned on here; key defender entries are present, but the most useful context is Memphis allowing a 118.62 defensive rating and playing at a 100 pace. That still does not overcome Alvarado’s recent minute decline and low scoring volume.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend
Jose Alvarado▼	Points	7.5	UNDER	78%HIGH	1/2	90%
Jose Alvarado▼	Rebounds	2.5	UNDER	74%HIGH	2/2	90%
Jose Alvarado▼	Assists	3.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	2/2	50%
Jose Alvarado▼	3PM	1.5	UNDER	77%HIGH	1/2	90%
Jose Alvarado▼	Steals	1	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	80%
Jose Alvarado▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	90%HIGH	—	100%
Jose Alvarado▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	—	80%
Jose Alvarado▼	Turnovers	1	OVER	55%MEDIUM	—	10%
Jose Alvarado▼	P+A	10.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	2/2	80%

ML Scout Analysis

P+R8UNDER0%logisticWeak Leg (11/20)7/1644%▼

P+A10.5UNDER0%logisticWeak Leg (11/20)7/1644%▼

R+A6OVER0%logisticWeak Leg (9/20)8/1650%▼

Featured Pick

Jose Alvarado

Points UNDER 7.5HIGH

This is the cleanest read because his season average is 7.4 PPG, yet the last 10 games are only 3.8 PPG and the last 5 are 4.8 PPG. With minutes down to 14.2 in recent games, he has a limited path to clearing an inflated or even fair scoring line.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Vince Williams Jr.	2	5	0	0%	0%
Javon Small	1	3	2	100%	100%
Cam Spencer	3	3	2	0%	0%
Cedric Coward	3	3	8	75%	88%
Jaylen Wells	2	2	3	100%	150%

pointsUNDER 7.578%HIGH

His season average is 7.4 PPG, but the last 10 games are down to 3.8 and his minutes have fallen to 14.2. That combination makes an under on a projected 7.5 line the safer side.

reboundsUNDER 2.574%HIGH

He is averaging 2.5 rebounds for the season, but only 1.1 over the last 10 and 1.2 over the last 5. With reduced minutes, rebounding volume looks capped.

assistsUNDER 3.562%MEDIUM

His season mean is 3.39 assists, which is close to the number, but recent playing time has been lower and his last 10 sits at 4.2. This is a volatile category, so the slight lean is under on a conservative projected line.

threesUNDER 1.577%HIGH

He averages 1.51 threes per game for the season, but only 0.4 over the last 10 and 0.8 over the last 5. That recent dip makes over exposure risky at a 1.5 line.

stealsUNDER 158%MEDIUM

He is at exactly 1.0 steals per game on the season, but recent steals are only 0.6 over the last 10. With standard variance, this is close to a coin flip but slightly under-friendly.

blocksUNDER 0.590%HIGH

He averages just 0.1 blocks per game and has 0.0 in the last 5 and last 10. A block over is not supported by the profile.

stocksUNDER 1.566%MEDIUM

His season average for stocks is 1.07 and recent production is only 0.6. Since stocks are volatile and his block rate is minimal, the under is preferable.

turnoversOVER 155%MEDIUM

He has 0.8 turnovers per game on the season and 0.8 over the last 5, so a low line would be reachable in normal usage. This is not a strong edge, but over is more plausible than under at 1.0.

paUNDER 10.568%MEDIUM

His season combined scoring and assists production is modest, and the recent minutes drop has limited his overall involvement. Combo props carry more variance, so the under is the better conservative stance.

timelineUNDER 7.5 PTS