AI Model:

Karl-Anthony Towns▼

NYK · C

PPG

20.0

RPG

11.8

APG

2.9

L5 PPG

24.0

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+4.0

20.0

24.0

RPG-0.2

11.8

11.6

APG+1.1

2.9

4.0

SPG+0.1

0.9

1.0

BPG+0.2

0.6

0.8

UNDER 19.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

19.5

MIL

2026-02-27

2026-02-27 vs MIL: 17 pts

SAS

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs SAS: 12 pts

TOR

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs TOR: 21 pts

OKC

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs OKC: 17 pts

DEN

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs DEN: 17 pts

LAL

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs LAL: 25 pts

LAC

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs LAC: 35 pts

UTA

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs UTA: 21 pts

GSW

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs GSW: 17 pts

IND

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs IND: 22 pts

Over 19.5

Under 19.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 19.5FANATICS

58%

REB

UNDER 12.5FANATICS

60%

AST

OVER 2.5

56%

3PM

OVER 1.5

57%

BLK

UNDER 0.5FANATICS

63%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

62%

OVER 2

55%

PRA

UNDER 32.5FANATICS

54%

P+A

UNDER 22.5FANATICS

58%

P+R

UNDER 32.5FANATICS

59%

R+A

UNDER 15.5FANATICS

56%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

19.0

20.8

RPG

12.3

11.5

APG

2.1

3.5

vs MEM (H2H)15 games

PPG

20.5

RPG

9.7

APG

2.9

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Kel'el Ware	4	21	79%	+14.4%	medium
Nic Claxton	4	19	18%	-31.7%	medium
Wendell Carter Jr.	3	19	80%	+20.1%	medium
Neemias Queta	3	16	67%

Towns’ scoring looks steady, but the rebound line is the cleaner angle

Karl-Anthony Towns is holding a strong floor with season marks of 20.0 points and 11.8 rebounds in 31.2 minutes, and his recent scoring has ticked up to 24.0 PPG over the last 5. That said, his last-10 scoring is only 20.4 PPG and the trend is listed as down, so the current form is better for a modest projection than a chase. Memphis has a 118.62 defensive rating, but no specific defender matchup data is available, so the stronger read comes from Towns’ stable usage and matchup pace rather than a named individual stopper. With home/away splits fairly even and his rebound volume consistently above 11, the board leans more to rebounds and combo unders than aggressive overs.

Stat Trends

PPG

24.0(↑ from 20.0)

RPG

11.6(→ from 11.8)

APG

4.0(↑ from 2.9)

Key Matchup

Memphis has a 118.62 defensive rating with a 100 pace and 0.744 scoring suppression, but no specific defender matchup data is available. The key contextual edge is that Towns’ production has been stable enough to avoid a major downgrade, though the defensive environment does not strongly push to the over.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend
Karl-Anthony Towns▼	Points	19.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	50%
Karl-Anthony Towns▼	Rebounds	12.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	50%
Karl-Anthony Towns▼	Assists	2.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	2/2	30%
Karl-Anthony Towns▼	3PM	1.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	2/2	30%
Karl-Anthony Towns▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	—	50%
Karl-Anthony Towns▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	—	60%
Karl-Anthony Towns▼	Turnovers	2	OVER	55%MEDIUM	—	40%
Karl-Anthony Towns▼	PRA	32.5	UNDER	54%MEDIUM	2/2	40%
Karl-Anthony Towns▼	P+A	22.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	50%
Karl-Anthony Towns▼	P+R	32.5	UNDER	59%MEDIUM	2/2	50%
Karl-Anthony Towns▼	R+A	15.5	UNDER	56%MEDIUM	2/2	60%

ML Scout Analysis

P+R32.5OVER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (11/20)11/2055%▼

P+A23.5OVER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 3x11/2055%▼

R+A15.5UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 2x9/2045%▼

Featured Pick

Karl-Anthony Towns

Rebounds UNDER 12.5MEDIUM

This is the cleanest numbers-based lean because his season average is 11.85 and his away average is 11.52, both below the posted 12.5 line. The last-10 rebound rate at 12.7 is close enough to keep it from being a high-confidence play, but the season-long baseline still points under.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Jock Landale	1	5	4	67%	67%
Olivier-Maxence Prosper	1	4	5	40%	50%
Jahmai Mashack	1	2	2	0%	0%
Adama Bal	1	2	0	0%	0%
Santi Aldama	1	2	2	100%	100%

pointsUNDER 19.558%MEDIUM

Season mean is 20.03, but the last-10 is just 20.4 and the trend is down. With the line at 19.5, this is close, but the over bias warning and stable season profile make the under slightly safer.

reboundsUNDER 12.560%MEDIUM

His season mean is 11.85 and away mean is 11.52, both below 12.5, even though the last-10 is 12.7. Because the recent bump is not extreme and rebound variance is moderate, the under is the better side.

assistsOVER 2.556%MEDIUM

Towns averages 2.89 assists for the season and 3.1 over the last 10, with a 3.0 home mean. The line is below both season and recent averages, making the over playable despite some volatility.

threesOVER 1.557%MEDIUM

He averages 1.57 threes per game for the season, with 1.2 over the last 10 and 1.0 at home. This is a modest over rather than a strong one because the recent volume is below season pace.

blocksUNDER 0.563%MEDIUM

His season mean is only 0.6 blocks, and the last-20 drops to 0.4 with a home mean of 0.2. Since a 0.5 line essentially requires a block, the under is slightly favored.

stocksUNDER 1.562%MEDIUM

He averages 1.48 stocks on the season and 1.3 over the last 10, which sits just below a 1.5 line. The combo variance is meaningful, so this is a cautious under.

turnoversOVER 255%MEDIUM

Towns is at 2.0 turnovers in the last 10 and 2.4 in the last 20, above a projected 2.0 line. His increased assist involvement and usage support a slight over lean.

praUNDER 32.554%MEDIUM

His season PRA profile is 20.0 + 11.8 + 2.9 = 34.7, but combo props are high-variance and the line is elevated at 32.5. Given the under bias on combo props and his down trend, the under is the safer lean.

paUNDER 22.558%MEDIUM

Season points plus assists is 22.9, but the recent last-10 blend is only 23.5 and the points component is not clearly beating the line. With this being a combo prop, the under gets a slight edge.

prUNDER 32.559%MEDIUM

Points plus rebounds comes out to 31.8 on the season, which is below the 32.5 line. The last-5 is hotter, but regression risk is real, so the under is preferred.

raUNDER 15.556%MEDIUM

Rebounds plus assists is 14.7 for the season and 15.7 over the last 10, so this is right around the number. Because combo props are volatile, the under is the slightly safer side.

timelineUNDER 19.5 PTS