AI Model:

Mikal Bridges▲

NYK · PG

PPG

14.8

RPG

4.1

APG

3.9

L5 PPG

8.0

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-6.8

14.8

8.0

RPG+0.5

4.1

4.6

APG-1.3

3.9

2.6

SPG-0.6

1.4

0.8

BPG+0.2

0.8

1.0

UNDER 14.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

14.5

SAS

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs SAS: 25 pts

TOR

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs TOR: 11 pts

OKC

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs OKC: 15 pts

DEN

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs DEN: 9 pts

LAL

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs LAL: 0 pts

LAC

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs LAC: 7 pts

UTA

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs UTA: 5 pts

IND

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs IND: 11 pts

GSW

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs GSW: 7 pts

IND

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs IND: 10 pts

Over 14.5

Under 14.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 14.5STAKE

74%

REB

UNDER 4.5STAKE

63%

AST

UNDER 3.5STAKE

68%

3PM

UNDER 1.5

61%

STL

UNDER 1.5STAKE

66%

BLK

OVER 0.5STAKE

59%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

57%

UNDER 1

65%

P+R

UNDER 18.5STAKE

60%

P+A

UNDER 18.5STAKE

67%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

12.9

11.4

RPG

4.4

3.5

APG

2.6

3.4

vs MEM (H2H)15 games

PPG

15.6

RPG

3.8

APG

3.3

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Desmond Bane	4	23	35%	-13.5%	medium
Norman Powell	4	21	56%	-2.6%	medium
Brandon Ingram	4	17	64%	+8.3%	medium
Tyrese Maxey	3	14	60%

Bridges’ scoring has cooled, but the matchup profile supports a stable all-around floor

Mikal Bridges is coming in below his season scoring average, with just 8.0 PPG over the last 5 and 10.0 over the last 10 versus 14.8 for the season, while his minutes have also dipped to 27.4 from 33.4 season-wide. His rebounding has held steadier at 4.6 last 5 and 4.2 last 10, and his defensive production remains usable with 1.8 stocks last 5 and 2.0 last 10. The opponent context is not especially restrictive, as Memphis has a 118.62 defensive rating and Bridges has averaged 15.6 PPG across 15 games vs this opponent, but his recent usage trend still points more toward a modest line than a ceiling game. With the under-leaning market profile and recent scoring regression, the safest angle is to fade the higher scoring outcomes.

Stat Trends

PPG

8.0(↓ from 14.8)

RPG

4.6(→ from 4.1)

APG

2.6(↓ from 3.9)

Stocks

1.8(↓ from 2.2)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data. Memphis has a 118.62 defensive rating and a 100 pace, while Bridges has posted 15.6 PPG in 15 games against this opponent, so the head-to-head history is solid but the current form is more muted.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend
Mikal Bridges▼	Points	14.5	UNDER	74%HIGH	2/2	80%
Mikal Bridges▼	Rebounds	4.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	2/2	60%
Mikal Bridges▼	Assists	3.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	2/2	50%
Mikal Bridges▼	3PM	1.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	1/2	80%
Mikal Bridges▼	Steals	1.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	2/2	80%
Mikal Bridges▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	59%MEDIUM	—	60%
Mikal Bridges▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	—	70%
Mikal Bridges▼	Turnovers	1	UNDER	65%MEDIUM	—	80%
Mikal Bridges▼	P+R	18.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	80%
Mikal Bridges▼	P+A	18.5	UNDER	67%MEDIUM	2/2	90%

ML Scout Analysis

P+A14.5OVER0%logisticWeak Leg (11/20)11/2055%▼

P+R15UNDER0%logisticWeak Leg (10/20)7/2035%▼

R+A6UNDER0%logisticWeak Leg (9/20)9/2045%▼

Featured Pick

Mikal Bridges

Points UNDER 14.5HIGH

This is the cleanest read because the market line is sitting right at his season average of 14.8, while his last 5 games are only 8.0 PPG and his last 10 are 10.0 PPG. The recent minutes dip to 27.4 also supports a lower-scoring outcome rather than a rebound to season form.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Ja Morant	1	4	0	0%	0%
Cam Spencer	2	4	0	0%	0%
Cedric Coward	2	3	2	50%	50%
Vince Williams Jr.	1	1	3	100%	150%
Javon Small	1	1	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 14.574%HIGH

He is averaging 14.8 PPG for the season but only 8.0 over the last 5 and 10.0 over the last 10, with minutes down to 27.4 in that span. The recent drop is large enough to trust the under more than the season number.

reboundsUNDER 4.563%MEDIUM

His season average is 4.1 RPG and recent form is 4.6 last 5, but the season baseline and his 4.2 last 10 sit below this line. That makes 4.5 a slight under lean rather than a strong over.

assistsUNDER 3.568%MEDIUM

Bridges is at 3.9 APG for the season, but only 2.6 over the last 5 and 2.8 over the last 10. The recent distribution points to a sub-4 assist projection.

threesUNDER 1.561%MEDIUM

He averages 1.96 threes season-long and 1.4 over the last 5, so the market line sits close to his lower recent range. Because the recent trend is down from season pace, the under is the cleaner side.

stealsUNDER 1.566%MEDIUM

He averages 1.4 steals per game this season, but only 0.8 over the last 5 and 1.0 over the last 10. That recent drop makes 1.5 a tough number to clear consistently.

blocksOVER 0.559%MEDIUM

His season average is 0.8 blocks and he has 1.0 over the last 5 and 1.0 over the last 10, all above this line. Even with typical volatility, the baseline supports a modest over lean.

stocksOVER 1.557%MEDIUM

Bridges combines 1.4 steals and 0.8 blocks per game on the season, and he is at 1.8 stocks over the last 5 and 2.0 over the last 10. This is a volatile category, but the two-way production profile still clears the threshold often enough.

turnoversUNDER 165%MEDIUM

His season turnover rate is low at 1.0 per game and he has only 0.6 over the last 5 and 0.9 over the last 10. That profile supports an under if the line is set around 1.0.

prUNDER 18.560%MEDIUM

With 14.8 PPG and 4.1 RPG on the season, he projects near the high teens, but recent scoring weakness pulls the combo down. Combo props are higher variance, so the under is still the safer side.

paUNDER 18.567%MEDIUM

Bridges averages 14.8 points and 3.9 assists, but recent assist and scoring dips reduce the chance of clearing 18.5. The lower recent usage makes this combo lean under.

timelineUNDER 14.5 PTS