AI Model:

Ty Jerome▲

MEM · PG

PPG

20.2

RPG

3.1

APG

5.7

L5 PPG

21.0

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+0.8

20.2

21.0

RPG+0.5

3.1

3.6

APG+0.1

5.7

5.8

SPG-0.3

1.1

0.8

BPG0.0

0.2

UNDER 20 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

POR

2026-02-07

2026-02-07 vs POR: 13 pts

GSW

2026-02-09

2026-02-09 vs GSW: 19 pts

DEN

2026-02-11

2026-02-11 vs DEN: 19 pts

MIA

2026-02-21

2026-02-21 vs MIA: 17 pts

GSW

2026-02-25

2026-02-25 vs GSW: 22 pts

MIN

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs MIN: 14 pts

LAC

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs LAC: 23 pts

PHI

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs PHI: 26 pts

DET

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs DET: 21 pts

DEN

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs DEN: 21 pts

Over 20

Under 20

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 20

58%

REB

OVER 3

55%

AST

OVER 4.5FANATICS

57%

3PM

OVER 2.5

56%

STL

OVER 0.5

54%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

56%

OVER 1.5

54%

PRA

UNDER 28.5

52%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

20.4

19.1

RPG

3.6

2.2

APG

6.0

4.8

vs NYK (H2H)6 games

PPG

11.2

RPG

2.3

APG

3.2

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Jaden McDaniels	3	12	70%	+12.6%	medium
Christian Braun	2	8	33%	-14.1%	low
Sam Hauser	1	5	0%	-47.4%	low
Gui Santos	2	4	0%

Ty Jerome’s assist usage is steady, but the price looks a touch high

Ty Jerome has been productive all season with 20.2 points, 5.7 assists, and 3.1 rebounds in 22.5 minutes, and his recent form is still solid at 21.0 points and 5.8 assists over the last 5. His home split is a little stronger than his away split, especially in assists (7.0 home vs 4.88 away), which matters since this game is in Memphis. The matchup data does not show a specific defender matchup, and his vs_opponent history is notably lower at 11.17 points, 2.33 rebounds, and 3.17 assists across 6 games, which pulls projection down. With the Knicks on a back-to-back and Memphis at home, the pace/setup is fine, but the opponent history and assist line make overs less attractive than usual.

Stat Trends

PPG

21.0(↑ from 20.2)

APG

5.8(→ from 5.7)

RPG

3.6(↑ from 3.1)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data. The available opponent defense context shows a 110.6 defensive rating and a 100 pace, but his vs_opponent history is well below season norms, so that head-to-head trend matters more than any named defender.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend
Ty Jerome▼	Points	20	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	50%
Ty Jerome▼	Rebounds	3	OVER	55%MEDIUM	2/2	30%
Ty Jerome▼	Assists	4.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	1/2	60%
Ty Jerome▼	3PM	2.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	1/2	60%
Ty Jerome▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	1/2	70%
Ty Jerome▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	56%MEDIUM	—	50%
Ty Jerome▼	Turnovers	1.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	—	60%
Ty Jerome▼	PRA	28.5	UNDER	52%MEDIUM	2/2	50%

ML Scout Analysis

P+A25.5OVER0%logisticWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x9/1560%▼

R+A8.5UNDER0%logisticWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 2x6/1540%▼

P+R22.5UNDER0%logisticWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 2x7/1547%▼

Featured Pick

Ty Jerome

Assists OVER 4.5MEDIUM

This is the cleanest line from the board because the season average is 5.69 and the last-10 is 5.3, both above 4.5. The main caution is his weaker 3.17 assists per game in 6 career meetings with this opponent, but the home split of 7.0 assists keeps the over in play.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

pointsUNDER 2058%MEDIUM

Season mean is 20.15 and last-10 is 19.5, so this projects near a coin flip rather than a clear over. His vs_opponent scoring history is only 11.17 PPG across 6 games, which is a meaningful drag on the over.

reboundsOVER 355%MEDIUM

He averages 3.1 rebounds on the season and 3.2 over the last 10, with a recent 3.6 over the last 5. Home rebound split is stronger at 4.2, so a modest over is playable if the line stays around 3.0.

assistsOVER 4.557%MEDIUM

The sportsbook line is 4.5, and Jerome’s season average is 5.69 assists with 5.3 over the last 10. His home mean is 7.0 assists, which supports the over despite the lower vs_opponent history.

threesOVER 2.556%MEDIUM

He averages 2.85 made threes on the season and 3.0 over the last 10, with 2.7 to 3.0 across the home/away splits. The volume is stable enough to support a small lean over.

stealsOVER 0.554%MEDIUM

He averages 1.1 steals per game on the season and 0.9 over the last 20, so he clears the meaningful-volume threshold. The lower standard deviation profile versus scoring makes this a usable but not strong over.

stocksUNDER 1.556%MEDIUM

His season mean for stocks is 1.31 and recent mean is 1.4, both below 1.5. With only 0.82 season standard deviation, the under is slightly cleaner than forcing an over.

turnoversOVER 1.554%MEDIUM

He is at 2.0 turnovers over the last 10 and 2.2 over the last 5, above the 2.0+ volume threshold. The recent uptick in usage and passing load makes over 1.5 reasonable.

praUNDER 28.552%MEDIUM

PRA is high-variance and combo props have been less reliable overall, so caution is warranted. His season blend of 20.2 points, 3.1 rebounds, and 5.7 assists works out to roughly 29.0, but the opponent history and volatility keep the under lean alive.

timelineUNDER 20 PTS