Last 10 games
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaden McDaniels | 3 | 12 | 70% | +12.6% | medium |
| Christian Braun | 2 | 8 | 33% | -14.1% | low |
| Sam Hauser | 1 | 5 | 0% | -47.4% | low |
| Gui Santos | 2 | 4 | 0% |
Ty Jerome has been productive all season with 20.2 points, 5.7 assists, and 3.1 rebounds in 22.5 minutes, and his recent form is still solid at 21.0 points and 5.8 assists over the last 5. His home split is a little stronger than his away split, especially in assists (7.0 home vs 4.88 away), which matters since this game is in Memphis. The matchup data does not show a specific defender matchup, and his vs_opponent history is notably lower at 11.17 points, 2.33 rebounds, and 3.17 assists across 6 games, which pulls projection down. With the Knicks on a back-to-back and Memphis at home, the pace/setup is fine, but the opponent history and assist line make overs less attractive than usual.
No specific defender matchup data. The available opponent defense context shows a 110.6 defensive rating and a 100 pace, but his vs_opponent history is well below season norms, so that head-to-head trend matters more than any named defender.
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ty Jerome▼ | Points | 20 | UNDER | 58%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 50% |
Ty Jerome▼ | Rebounds | 3 | OVER | 55%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 30% |
Ty Jerome▼ | Assists | 4.5 | OVER | 57%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 60% |
Ty Jerome▼ | 3PM | 2.5 | OVER | 56%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 60% |
Ty Jerome▼ | Steals | 0.5 | OVER | 54%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 70% |
Ty Jerome▼ | STL+BLK | 1.5 | UNDER | 56%MEDIUM | — | 50% |
Ty Jerome▼ | Turnovers | 1.5 | OVER | 54%MEDIUM | — | 60% |
Ty Jerome▼ | PRA | 28.5 | UNDER | 52%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 50% |
This is the cleanest line from the board because the season average is 5.69 and the last-10 is 5.3, both above 4.5. The main caution is his weaker 3.17 assists per game in 6 career meetings with this opponent, but the home split of 7.0 assists keeps the over in play.
| low |
| Pelle Larsson | 1 | 4 | 0% | -47.4% | low |
Season mean is 20.15 and last-10 is 19.5, so this projects near a coin flip rather than a clear over. His vs_opponent scoring history is only 11.17 PPG across 6 games, which is a meaningful drag on the over.
He averages 3.1 rebounds on the season and 3.2 over the last 10, with a recent 3.6 over the last 5. Home rebound split is stronger at 4.2, so a modest over is playable if the line stays around 3.0.
The sportsbook line is 4.5, and Jerome’s season average is 5.69 assists with 5.3 over the last 10. His home mean is 7.0 assists, which supports the over despite the lower vs_opponent history.
He averages 2.85 made threes on the season and 3.0 over the last 10, with 2.7 to 3.0 across the home/away splits. The volume is stable enough to support a small lean over.
He averages 1.1 steals per game on the season and 0.9 over the last 20, so he clears the meaningful-volume threshold. The lower standard deviation profile versus scoring makes this a usable but not strong over.
His season mean for stocks is 1.31 and recent mean is 1.4, both below 1.5. With only 0.82 season standard deviation, the under is slightly cleaner than forcing an over.
He is at 2.0 turnovers over the last 10 and 2.2 over the last 5, above the 2.0+ volume threshold. The recent uptick in usage and passing load makes over 1.5 reasonable.
PRA is high-variance and combo props have been less reliable overall, so caution is warranted. His season blend of 20.2 points, 3.1 rebounds, and 5.7 assists works out to roughly 29.0, but the opponent history and volatility keep the under lean alive.