AI Model:

Tyler Kolek▲

NYK · PG

PPG

4.5

RPG

1.7

APG

2.9

L5 PPG

1.0

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-3.5

4.5

1.0

RPG-1.1

1.7

0.6

APG+0.1

2.9

3.0

SPG0.0

0.4

BPG+0.1

0.1

0.2

UNDER 4.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

4.5

BOS

2026-02-08

2026-02-08 vs BOS: 6 pts

PHI

2026-02-11

2026-02-11 vs PHI: 3 pts

CLE

2026-02-24

2026-02-24 vs CLE: 4 pts

MIL

2026-02-27

2026-02-27 vs MIL: 3 pts

SAS

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs SAS: 0 pts

TOR

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs TOR: 0 pts

DEN

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs DEN: 2 pts

LAC

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs LAC: 0 pts

UTA

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs UTA: 0 pts

IND

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs IND: 3 pts

Over 4.5

Under 4.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 4.5

78%

REB

UNDER 1.5

74%

AST

OVER 2.5

57%

3PM

UNDER 0.5

70%

OVER 0.5

52%

PRA

UNDER 9

76%

P+A

UNDER 7.5

68%

R+A

UNDER 4

71%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

4.4

2.6

RPG

0.8

1.2

APG

2.4

3.2

vs MEM (H2H)1 games

PPG

3.0

RPG

0.0

APG

3.0

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Tyus Jones	3	9	50%	-10.2%	medium
Luke Kennard	2	5	100%	+56.5%	low
Drake Powell	2	5	58%	+6.5%	low
Dru Smith	2	5	0%

Kolek’s minutes are the main problem, not the matchup

Tyler Kolek’s season production is modest at 4.5 PPG, 1.7 RPG, and 2.9 APG across 12.5 MPG, but his recent role has shrunk sharply with just 6.1 MPG over the last 10 and 7.2 MPG over the last 5. That makes his counting stats volatile despite a decent assist floor, especially since his last 5 scoring has fallen to 1.0 PPG while assists held at 3.0. Memphis allows a 118.62 defensive rating and New York is on normal rest, but the bigger issue is Kolek’s limited playing time and low-volume usage. With no specific defender matchup data, the projection leans conservative on most overs.

Stat Trends

PPG

1.0(↓ from 4.5)

APG

3.0(→ from 2.9)

MPG

7.2(↓ from 12.5)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data is available, so the key factor is Memphis’ team defense profile: a 118.62 defensive rating, pace of 100, scoring suppression of 0.744, and three-point suppression of 0.361. That environment does not create a strong individual edge, and Kolek’s low minutes remain the bigger limitation.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend
Tyler Kolek▼	Points	4.5	UNDER	78%HIGH	1/2	90%
Tyler Kolek▼	Rebounds	1.5	UNDER	74%HIGH	2/2	80%
Tyler Kolek▼	Assists	2.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	2/2	30%
Tyler Kolek▼	3PM	0.5	UNDER	70%HIGH	2/2	60%
Tyler Kolek▼	Turnovers	0.5	OVER	52%MEDIUM	—	20%
Tyler Kolek▼	PRA	9	UNDER	76%HIGH	1/2	90%
Tyler Kolek▼	P+A	7.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	2/2	80%
Tyler Kolek▼	R+A	4	UNDER	71%HIGH	1/2	70%

ML Scout Analysis

P+R8UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (11/20)3/933%▼

P+A10UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (11/20)3/933%▼

R+A6UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (10/20)2/922%▼

Featured Pick

Tyler Kolek

Points UNDER 4.5HIGH

Kolek’s recent scoring has collapsed to 1.0 PPG over the last 5 and 2.1 PPG over the last 10, while his recent minutes have dropped to 6.1 MPG. Even with a projected defensive environment that is not especially restrictive, the role-based volume is too low to expect 5+ points.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Adama Bal	1	1	0	0%	0%
Javon Small	1	1	2	100%	100%
Walter Clayton Jr.	1	1	0	0%	0%
Cam Spencer	1	1	8	100%	125%
GG Jackson	1	1	2	100%	100%

pointsUNDER 4.578%HIGH

He is averaging only 1.0 PPG over the last 5 and 2.1 PPG over the last 10, well below his 4.5 season mark. With recent minutes at 6.1 MPG, the scoring volume is too thin to trust an over.

reboundsUNDER 1.574%HIGH

Kolek has 1.7 RPG on the season but only 0.6 RPG over the last 5 and 0.5 RPG over the last 10. His recent playing time drop makes it hard to project enough rebound chances.

assistsOVER 2.557%MEDIUM

Assists are his best category, with 2.9 APG on the season and 3.0 APG over the last 5. The risk is minutes, since his recent MPG has fallen to 6.1, keeping confidence only moderate.

threesUNDER 0.570%HIGH

He averages 0.69 threes per game, but recent volume is only 0.2 FG3M per game over the last 5 and 0.5 over the last 10. The low-minute role caps his 3-point attempts.

turnoversOVER 0.552%MEDIUM

He averages 1.0 turnover in home/away splits and 1.0 turnovers per game on the season in the provided splits context, so a low line is reachable when he handles the ball. But the recent 6.1 MPG makes this volatile.

praUNDER 976%HIGH

His season profile is 4.5 points, 1.7 rebounds, and 2.9 assists, but recent minutes have collapsed to 6.1 MPG and his last-10 production is only 2.1/0.5/2.1. Combo props are higher variance, and the current role points to an under.

paUNDER 7.568%MEDIUM

Points plus assists average 7.4 on the season, but recent scoring has fallen to 1.0 PPG even while assists stay steady. With his minutes cut, clearing 7.5 requires efficiency that has not been there lately.

raUNDER 471%HIGH

Rebounds plus assists come to 4.6 on the season, but the last 5 rebounding dip to 0.6 RPG weakens the floor. The low recent usage makes 4.0 a tough number to beat.

timelineUNDER 4.5 PTS