AI Model:

Brandon Miller▼

CHA · SF

PPG

20.3

RPG

5.1

APG

3.4

L5 PPG

15.2

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-5.1

20.3

15.2

RPG+0.7

5.1

5.8

APG0.0

3.4

SPG+0.3

1.1

1.4

BPG-0.6

0.8

0.2

UNDER 19.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

19.5

IND

2026-02-26

2026-02-26 vs IND: 33 pts

POR

2026-02-28

2026-02-28 vs POR: 26 pts

DAL

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs DAL: 17 pts

BOS

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs BOS: 18 pts

MIA

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs MIA: 22 pts

PHX

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs PHX: 11 pts

POR

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs POR: 23 pts

SAC

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs SAC: 20 pts

SAS

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs SAS: 6 pts

MIA

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs MIA: 16 pts

Over 19.5

Under 19.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 19.5DRAFTKINGS

64%

REB

UNDER 5.5DRAFTKINGS

58%

AST

UNDER 3.5FANDUEL

60%

3PM

OVER 2.5FANDUEL

61%

STL

UNDER 1.5FANDUEL

67%

BLK

OVER 0.5BETMGM

56%

R+A

UNDER 8.5DRAFTKINGS

57%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

21.3

18.3

RPG

6.2

5.7

APG

3.5

3.2

vs ORL (H2H)7 games

PPG

19.1

RPG

5.3

APG

2.6

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Tyler Herro	2	11	69%	+19.3%	low
Matas Buzelis	4	10	83%	+23.5%	medium
Anthony Black	2	10	14%	-28.9%	low
Jalen Johnson	3	10	54%

Miller’s scoring floor is shaky, but all-around volume keeps props live

Brandon Miller is averaging 20.3 PPG, 5.1 RPG, and 3.4 APG on the season, but his recent form has cooled with 15.2 PPG over the last 5 and a down trend overall. His minutes have stayed stable at 30.2 per game, yet the recent scoring dip and 2.4 turnovers last 5 add risk to the higher points and combo lines. Against Orlando, his season matchup data is modest at 19.142857142857142 PPG and 5.285714285714286 RPG over 7 games, which leans closer to his baseline than a ceiling game. The Magic also show a 114.04 defensive rating and a three-point suppression profile, which makes the scoring overs less attractive than the lower rebounds-related angle.

Stat Trends

PPG

15.2(↓ from 20.3)

RPG

5.8(↑ from 5.1)

APG

3.4(→ from 3.4)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data is reliable here because the key_defenders list does not provide a clear on-ball assignment. The available opponent context does show a 114.04 defensive rating and three-point suppression of -1.275, which slightly tempers his scoring upside.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Brandon Miller▼	Points	19.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	25	✗
Brandon Miller▼	Rebounds	5.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	4	✓
Brandon Miller▼	Assists	3.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	8	✗
Brandon Miller▼	3PM	2.5	OVER	61%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	5	✓
Brandon Miller▼	Steals	1.5	UNDER	67%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	0	✓
Brandon Miller▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	—	30%	0	✗
Brandon Miller▼	R+A	8.5	UNDER	57%MEDIUM	1/2	30%	12	✗

ML Scout Analysis

3PM2.5OVER10%logisticWeak Leg (11/20)14/2070%+9.1% edgeNo material changes▼

AST2.5OVER12%logisticWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 5x16/2080%+19.1% edgeConfidence moved HIGH to LOW▼

REB4.5UNDER1%logisticWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 2x14/2070%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Value edge shifted -0.276▼

P+R25OVER0%logisticWeak Leg (9/20)10/2050%▼

P+A23OVER0%logisticWeak Leg (9/20)11/2055%▼

PTS17.5UNDER24%logisticWeak Leg (8/20)12/2060%Line moved +1.0; Value edge changed +0.053; Odds moved materially▼

PRA25.5UNDER20%logisticWeak Leg (8/20)12/2060%No material changes▼

R+A9.5UNDER0%logisticAvoid (7/20)UNDER 4x8/2040%▼

Featured Pick

Brandon Miller

Points UNDER 19.5MEDIUM

The season average of 20.3 is only slightly above the line, but his last 5 games have fallen to 15.2 PPG and his trend is down. With opponent history at 19.142857142857142 PPG across 7 games and no strong recent scoring momentum, the under is the best blend of form and baseline.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Anthony Black	2	10	3	14%	14%
Desmond Bane	2	4	5	29%	36%
Tristan da Silva	2	3	3	50%	75%
Paolo Banchero	2	2	8	75%	75%
Jase Richardson	2	1	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 19.564%MEDIUM

His season mean is 20.31, but the last 5 are down at 15.2 and his trend is down. With the line at 19.5 and opponent history at 19.142857142857142 PPG across 7 games, the under is slightly preferable.

reboundsUNDER 5.558%MEDIUM

He averages 5.1 rebounds on the season and 5.1 on the line-adjusted home/away profile is not enough to create clear over edge. The recent 5-game rebound average is 5.8, but that is not far enough above season baseline to override the conservative under lean.

assistsUNDER 3.560%MEDIUM

Season assists are 3.37 and recent mean is 3.4, both just below the 3.5 line. The assist profile is steady but not strong enough to trust an over against a defense that has already kept his matchup production modest.

threesOVER 2.561%MEDIUM

He averages 3.1 made threes on the season and 3.2 over the last 10, comfortably above 2.5. Even with Orlando’s three suppression note, his volume keeps this as the cleaner over.

stealsUNDER 1.567%MEDIUM

He averages 1.1 steals on the season and 1.4 over the last 5, but the 1.5 line is still demanding. Given the volatility of steals and his season baseline, the under is the safer side.

blocksOVER 0.556%MEDIUM

His season average is 0.8 blocks and the line is only 0.5, so he clears this category frequently enough to justify the over. Confidence is moderate because block rates can swing game to game.

raUNDER 8.557%MEDIUM

He sits at 10.2 combined rebounds plus assists on the season, but the recent scoring dip and matchup history suggest a more muted all-around game. Because combo props add variance, the under is only a mild lean.

timelineUNDER 19.5 PTS