AI Model:

LaMelo Ball▲

CHA · PG

PPG

19.6

RPG

4.8

APG

7.2

L5 PPG

22.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+3.0

19.6

22.6

RPG+0.6

4.8

5.4

APG-1.2

7.2

6.0

SPG0.0

1.2

BPG0.0

0.2

UNDER 20.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

20.5

IND

2026-02-26

2026-02-26 vs IND: 20 pts

POR

2026-02-28

2026-02-28 vs POR: 15 pts

DAL

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs DAL: 15 pts

BOS

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs BOS: 18 pts

MIA

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs MIA: 21 pts

PHX

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs PHX: 22 pts

POR

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs POR: 14 pts

SAC

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs SAC: 30 pts

SAS

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs SAS: 17 pts

MIA

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs MIA: 30 pts

Over 20.5

Under 20.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 20.5DRAFTKINGS

58%

REB

OVER 4.5DRAFTKINGS

54%

AST

OVER 6.5DRAFTKINGS

55%

3PM

UNDER 3.5DRAFTKINGS

57%

STL

OVER 0.5

62%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

51%

P+R

UNDER 25.5DRAFTKINGS

56%

P+A

UNDER 27.5DRAFTKINGS

59%

R+A

UNDER 11.5DRAFTKINGS

60%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

19.4

21.3

RPG

5.0

APG

7.1

5.6

vs ORL (H2H)15 games

PPG

21.7

RPG

5.2

APG

6.7

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Josh Hart	3	15	80%	+19.5%	medium
Immanuel Quickley	4	13	68%	+14.0%	medium
Davion Mitchell	3	11	83%	+26.2%	medium
Ben Sheppard	4	11	63%

LaMelo’s volume is solid, but the board leans slightly to the under

LaMelo Ball is trending up overall, with his last 5 at 22.6 PPG, 5.4 RPG, and 6.0 APG compared with season marks of 19.6 PPG, 4.8 RPG, and 7.2 APG. His recent minutes have held steady at 28.2, and his home split shows 19.4 PPG with 7.1 APG in 10 home games, which supports a stable workload. The matchup is not especially friendly for a big scoring spike because Orlando’s team defensive profile shows a 114.04 defensive rating and -1.275 three suppression, while his season threes volume is already high at 3.55 per game. Given the betting bias toward unders and his stat variance, the safest angle is to stay selective and avoid forcing overs on the highest-volume combo markets.

Stat Trends

PPG

22.6(↑ from 19.6)

RPG

5.4(↑ from 4.8)

APG

6.0(↓ from 7.2)

Key Matchup

Orlando’s team defense shows a 114.04 defensive rating and -1.275 three suppression, which matters because LaMelo’s volume includes 3.55 threes per game. There is no specific defender matchup data that meaningfully changes the read beyond the provided team-level profile.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
LaMelo Ball▼	Points	20.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	20	✓
LaMelo Ball▼	Rebounds	4.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	6	✓
LaMelo Ball▼	Assists	6.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	5	✗
LaMelo Ball▼	3PM	3.5	UNDER	57%MEDIUM	2/2	30%	3	✓
LaMelo Ball▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	62%MEDIUM	1/2	80%	3	✓
LaMelo Ball▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	51%MEDIUM	—	40%	4	✓
LaMelo Ball▼	P+R	25.5	UNDER	56%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	26	✗
LaMelo Ball▼	P+A	27.5	UNDER	59%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	25	✓
LaMelo Ball▼	R+A	11.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	11	✓

ML Scout Analysis

3PM3.5OVER14%logisticWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 2x13/2065%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Line moved -1.0; Odds moved materially▼

STL0.5OVER7%logisticWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 3x16/2080%+16.0% edge▼

PTS19.5UNDER22%logisticWeak Leg (8/20)11/2055%Confidence moved HIGH to MEDIUM▼

AST6.5UNDER11%logisticWeak Leg (8/20)OVER 4x10/2050%Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW; Odds moved materially▼

REB4.5UNDER16%logisticAvoid (7/20)10/2050%Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

PRA33.5UNDER26%logisticAvoid (7/20)6/2030%+16.5% edgeConfidence moved LOW to MEDIUM; Line moved +2.0; Value edge shifted +0.154▼

P+R25.5UNDER0%logisticAvoid (7/20)8/2040%▼

P+A27.5UNDER0%logisticAvoid (7/20)9/2045%▼

R+A11.5UNDER0%logisticAvoid (6/20)9/2045%▼

Featured Pick

LaMelo Ball

Steals OVER 0.5MEDIUM

This is the cleanest threshold on the board because LaMelo averages 1.2 steals per game on the season and 1.5 over the last 10. Even with steals volatility, the line is low enough that his baseline production gives the over strong support.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Anthony Black	3	9	15	63%	75%
Tristan da Silva	3	8	5	33%	50%
Tyus Jones	3	4	5	100%	125%
Desmond Bane	3	3	3	20%	30%
Noah Penda	3	3	2	100%	100%

pointsUNDER 20.558%MEDIUM

His season average is 19.6 PPG, below the 20.5 line, and his home scoring is 19.4 PPG. The last 5 at 22.6 is higher, but that is a 15%+ bump over season level, so regression risk remains.

reboundsOVER 4.554%MEDIUM

He averages 4.8 rebounds for the season and 4.9 over the last 10, with 5.0 in both home and away splits. The line sits just below his season mean, making the over reasonable despite moderate variance.

assistsOVER 6.555%MEDIUM

LaMelo’s season mark is 7.2 APG and his home split is 7.1 APG, both above 6.5. The last 5 dipped to 6.0, so confidence should stay moderate rather than aggressive.

threesUNDER 3.557%MEDIUM

He averages 3.55 threes per game on the season, which is essentially right at the 3.5 line. Orlando’s three suppression is -1.275, so there is enough resistance to lean under on a razor-thin number.

stealsOVER 0.562%MEDIUM

He averages 1.2 steals per game on the season and 1.5 over the last 10, well above 0.5. This is his clearest low-bar category, though steals remain volatile.

stocksOVER 1.551%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.38, but the last 10 is 1.8 and he has enough defensive event volume to qualify. Confidence is only moderate because stocks are high-variance and his season mean is below the typical threshold.

prUNDER 25.556%MEDIUM

His season points plus rebounds is 24.4 using 19.6 PPG and 4.8 RPG, below 25.5. The recent scoring bump helps, but the combined line is still a touch rich.

paUNDER 27.559%MEDIUM

Season points plus assists comes out to 26.8 from 19.6 PPG and 7.2 APG, below the line. His last 5 assists fell to 6.0, which makes clearing 27.5 less likely than the odds suggest.

raUNDER 11.560%MEDIUM

He averages 12.0 rebounds plus assists on the season, but the last 10 is 11.3 and the away split is 11.84 while the home split is 12.1. With the line set at 11.5, this is close, but the recent assist dip points slightly under.

timelineUNDER 20.5 PTS