AI Model:

DeMar DeRozan▼

SAC · SF

PPG

18.6

RPG

3.0

APG

4.0

L5 PPG

24.2

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+5.6

18.6

24.2

RPG-0.6

3.0

2.4

APG+1.2

4.0

5.2

SPG+0.3

1.1

1.4

BPG+0.3

0.3

0.6

UNDER 19.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

19.5

HOU

2026-02-25

2026-02-25 vs HOU: 15 pts

DAL

2026-02-26

2026-02-26 vs DAL: 7 pts

LAL

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs LAL: 9 pts

PHX

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs PHX: 17 pts

NOP

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs NOP: 15 pts

IND

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs IND: 12 pts

CHA

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs CHA: 39 pts

LAC

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs LAC: 27 pts

UTA

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs UTA: 41 pts

SAS

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs SAS: 2 pts

Over 19.5

Under 19.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 19.5FANDUEL

70%

REB

OVER 2.5FANDUEL

60%

AST

UNDER 4.5FANDUEL

58%

3PM

UNDER 0.5DRAFTKINGS

72%

STL

OVER 0.5STAKE

56%

BLK

UNDER 0.5BETMGM

63%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

61%

OVER 2

57%

P+R

UNDER 22.5DRAFTKINGS

64%

P+A

UNDER 23.5DRAFTKINGS

62%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

17.7

16.3

RPG

2.9

1.7

APG

3.7

4.5

vs PHI (H2H)14 games

PPG

22.3

RPG

5.6

APG

4.1

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Jabari Smith Jr.	4	23	32%	-21.1%	medium
Jaden McDaniels	4	20	59%	+4.8%	medium
Jaylen Wells	4	15	96%	+27.2%	medium
Royce O'Neale	4	15	33%

DeRozan’s scoring line is playable on the under, with a modest rebound assist path

DeMar DeRozan is coming off a volatile stretch: his last 5 games show 24.2 PPG, but his last 10 and last 20 are much closer to 18.4 and 17.0 PPG, which points to regression toward his season level rather than sustained heater territory. The matchup data leans slightly positive for scoring efficiency, but the opponent defense shows a 116.03 defensive rating and the game environment does not add any special pace boost. His home splits are a bit stronger than away, yet the season-long profile still supports a lower-scoring median than his recent spike suggests.

Stat Trends

PPG

24.2(↑ from 18.6)

APG

5.2(↑ from 4.0)

RPG

2.4(↓ from 3.0)

Key Matchup

The provided defender data does not identify a specific one-on-one matchup, so there is no specific defender matchup data to anchor on. The opponent has a 116.03 defensive rating, which is not a strong suppression environment for offense, but the available data still points more toward DeRozan’s season baseline than his last-5 spike.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
DeMar DeRozan▼	Points	19.5	UNDER	70%HIGH	1/2	70%	13	✓
DeMar DeRozan▼	Rebounds	2.5	OVER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	3	✓
DeMar DeRozan▼	Assists	4.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	5	✗
DeMar DeRozan▼	3PM	0.5	UNDER	72%HIGH	—	80%	0	✓
DeMar DeRozan▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	—	60%	0	✗
DeMar DeRozan▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	—	70%	0	✓
DeMar DeRozan▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	—	70%	0	✓
DeMar DeRozan▼	Turnovers	2	OVER	57%MEDIUM	—	30%	2	✗
DeMar DeRozan▼	P+R	22.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	16	✓
DeMar DeRozan▼	P+A	23.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	18	✓

ML Scout Analysis

PRA21OVER8%gbt_praAvoid (7/20)UNDER 2x9/2045%▼

PTS15.5UNDER13%gbt_pointsAvoid (6/20)UNDER 2x9/2045%▼

REB2OVER18%gbt_reboundsAvoid (6/20)UNDER 3x8/2040%▼

P+R20UNDER0%gbt_prAvoid (6/20)UNDER 2x8/2040%▼

P+A23UNDER0%gbt_paAvoid (6/20)UNDER 2x7/2035%▼

AST5OVER1%gbt_assistsAvoid (5/20)UNDER 4x7/2035%▼

FTM4.5UNDER19%gbtAvoid (5/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼

R+A7UNDER0%gbt_raAvoid (5/20)UNDER 4x8/2040%▼

FTA5UNDER12%gbtAvoid (4/20)UNDER 2x8/2040%▼

Featured Pick

DeMar DeRozan

Points UNDER 19.5HIGH

This is the cleanest number relative to his full profile: 18.6 PPG on the season, 18.4 over the last 10, and 17.0 over the last 20. The last 5 at 24.2 PPG is materially above both his season and longer rolling averages, so the data points to regression rather than another scoring outlier.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Kelly Oubre Jr.	1	8	0	0%	0%
Dominick Barlow	2	6	2	100%	100%
Justin Edwards	2	2	0	0%	0%
Paul George	1	2	5	100%	125%
VJ Edgecombe	2	2	3	100%	150%

pointsUNDER 19.570%HIGH

His season mean is 18.6 PPG, and the last 10 (18.4) and last 20 (17.0) are both below 19.5. Recent form is hotter at 24.2 PPG in the last 5, but that sits well above the longer samples and is a regression spot.

reboundsOVER 2.560%MEDIUM

He averages 3.0 rebounds per game on the season and 2.9 at home, both above this line. The volume is modest, but the number is low enough that the over fits his baseline better than the under.

assistsUNDER 4.558%MEDIUM

Season assists are 4.0 APG and the recent 5-game bump to 5.2 is not supported by the 4.9 last 10 and 4.1 last 20. With the line at 4.5, this is close, but the longer samples lean slightly under.

threesUNDER 0.572%HIGH

He averages only 0.62 threes per game on the season, but the recent 5-game average is just 0.2 and his last 10 is also 0.2. Even with a low line, the recent shot profile suggests the under has the cleaner shape.

stealsOVER 0.556%MEDIUM

He averages 1.1 steals per game on the season and 0.9 over his last 10, so clearing 0.5 is well within range. The recent 1.4 steals in the last 5 supports the over, though the volatility keeps confidence moderate.

blocksUNDER 0.563%MEDIUM

His season block average is 0.3 and his last 10 is 0.4, both below 0.5. Even though he hit 0.6 over the last 5, the broader sample still points under.

stocksUNDER 1.561%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.43 and the last 10 is 1.3, both just below 1.5. The line is close, but the longer run is not strong enough to justify the over.

turnoversOVER 257%MEDIUM

His recent turnover rate is elevated at 3.0 over the last 5 and 2.0 over the last 10, with the season not provided in the data. That makes 2.0 a live over despite the volatility.

prUNDER 22.564%MEDIUM

Season points plus rebounds sit at 21.59 using the provided means, which is below 22.5. Since this is a combo prop and his recent points spike is already above trend, the under is the safer side.

paUNDER 23.562%MEDIUM

Season points plus assists total 22.59 from the provided means, and his longer-window scoring is below the current scoring line. The combo still needs a stronger assist night than his season baseline to get over.

timelineUNDER 19.5 PTS