AI Model:

Dominick Barlow▼

PHI · PF

PPG

8.3

RPG

4.7

APG

1.2

L5 PPG

10.2

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+1.9

8.3

10.2

RPG+1.3

4.7

6.0

APG+0.6

1.2

1.8

SPG+0.1

0.9

1.0

BPG+0.1

0.7

0.8

UNDER 11.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

11.5

BOS

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs BOS: 14 pts

SAS

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs SAS: 0 pts

UTA

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs UTA: 7 pts

ATL

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs ATL: 4 pts

CLE

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs CLE: 8 pts

MEM

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs MEM: 11 pts

DET

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs DET: 11 pts

BKN

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs BKN: 10 pts

POR

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs POR: 11 pts

DEN

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs DEN: 8 pts

Over 11.5

Under 11.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 11.5BETMGM

72%

REB

OVER 4.5DRAFTKINGS

56%

AST

UNDER 1.5

64%

BLK

OVER 0.5BETMGM

60%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

58%

P+R

UNDER 15.5DRAFTKINGS

68%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

7.8

9.8

RPG

3.8

5.2

APG

0.9

1.2

vs SAC (H2H)3 games

PPG

7.0

RPG

4.0

APG

1.7

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Jalen Johnson	3	21	44%	-14.3%	medium
Pascal Siakam	2	14	50%	-11.4%	low
Scottie Barnes	3	12	38%	-16.8%	medium
Jaylen Brown	2	11	80%

Barlow’s role supports steady counting stats, but the scoring line is a grind

Dominick Barlow is averaging 8.3 PPG, 4.7 RPG, and 1.2 APG this season across 24.4 MPG, with his last 10 sitting close at 8.4/4.4/1.3. His last 5 have ticked up to 10.2 PPG and 6.0 RPG, but that comes with a down trend overall and a season baseline that still points to modest production. Sacramento’s defense context is not especially friendly, and his head-to-head sample vs this opponent is only 7.0 PPG and 4.0 RPG in 3 games. With no specific defender matchup data, the cleanest angle is to lean on the lower season averages and avoid chasing the recent spike.

Stat Trends

PPG

10.2(↑ from 8.3)

RPG

6.0(↑ from 4.7)

APG

1.8(↑ from 1.2)

Stocks

1.8(→ from 1.6)

Key Matchup

The opponent context shows a 120.73 defensive rating and no specific defender matchup data. His vs-opponent sample is 7.0 PPG, 4.0 RPG, and 1.67 APG in 3 games, which supports a conservative approach.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Dominick Barlow▼	Points	11.5	UNDER	72%HIGH	1/2	90%	12	✗
Dominick Barlow▼	Rebounds	4.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	8	✓
Dominick Barlow▼	Assists	1.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	2	✗
Dominick Barlow▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	60%MEDIUM	—	70%	2	✓
Dominick Barlow▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	—	50%	2	✓
Dominick Barlow▼	P+R	15.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	20	✗

ML Scout Analysis

PTS5.5OVER25%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 3x14/1974%+23.7% edgeConfidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

PRA10.5OVER16%gbt_praWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 3x14/1974%+22.5% edgePrediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Value edge shifted +0.527▼

P+A9UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (10/20)9/1947%▼

R+A6UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (9/20)8/1942%▼

P+R12UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (9/20)9/1947%▼

REB3.5UNDER9%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (8/20)11/1958%▼

AST1UNDER11%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (8/20)9/1947%▼

FTA2UNDER50%gbtWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 5x4/1921%Confidence moved MEDIUM to HIGH▼

FTM1UNDER28%gbtAvoid (7/20)7/1937%▼

Featured Pick

Dominick Barlow

Points UNDER 11.5HIGH

This is the cleanest play because his season scoring mean is 8.3 and his last 10 is 8.4, both well under the line. The recent last-5 bump to 10.2 is notable, but it is still not enough to outweigh the broader season profile, and the value data also points to the UNDER.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Precious Achiuwa	2	7	10	57%	57%
Maxime Raynaud	2	7	4	33%	33%
Dylan Cardwell	2	2	0	0%	0%
DeMar DeRozan	2	2	6	100%	100%
Daeqwon Plowden	1	1	5	25%	38%

pointsUNDER 11.572%HIGH

His season mean is 8.3 points and his last 10 is 8.4, both well below 11.5. The recent 10.2 last-5 is above baseline, but the value data still favors the UNDER and the season profile is the stronger anchor.

reboundsOVER 4.556%MEDIUM

He averages 4.7 rebounds on the season and 4.4 over the last 10, so this is right on the threshold. The last 5 at 6.0 and 28.2 MPG suggest he can clear 4.5 if minutes hold.

assistsUNDER 1.564%MEDIUM

His season assist average is 1.2 and last 10 is 1.3, both below a projected 1.5 line. Even with a 1.8 last-5, the smaller season role keeps this as an UNDER lean.

blocksOVER 0.560%MEDIUM

He averages 0.7 blocks per game on the season and 0.8 over the last 10. That gives him a solid path to at least one block, especially with his recent defensive activity.

stocksOVER 1.558%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.61 and the last 20 is 1.8, so 1.5 is a reachable number. Variance is still meaningful, but the volume is enough to justify a slight OVER lean.

prUNDER 15.568%MEDIUM

His season points plus rebounds is 13.0 on the season (8.3 + 4.7), below 15.5. The recent uptick in rebounds and points helps, but the line still asks for a clear beat relative to his baseline.

timelineUNDER 11.5 PTS